800mm Z lens orders

If you would like to post, you'll need to register. Note that if you have a BCG store account, you'll need a new, separate account here (we keep the two sites separate for security purposes).

marc

Well-known member
I was looking at the 400 F4.5, whats you take on that, i also have dirt cheap on offer a 400 F2.8 G lens FX in Mint condition I know its heavy but thats not an issue for what i do..
Just placed an order for the Nikkor Z400 f/4.5 (will receive it within a week or so) whilst I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the Z400TC to arrive. I'm liking the idea of using this for a lighweight combo w/video in DX crop mode in 4K 120fps, giving me an EFL of 920mm with that nice 2.3 crop factor. ;)
 

maikm

New member
Ordered early April from Nikon Germany (no NPS), still waiting.

My Z migration situation: I was on DX cameras the whole time (from D70 to D500), when, again, my standard zoom broke. I refused to buy yet another plastic zoom lens with variable aperture, so I made the jump and bought a Z6II. Quickly turned out to be insufficient for wildlife, so bought a Z9 too which then freed up most of the rest of my F-mount gear to be sold. And skipping FX on F-mount entirely saved me some money, too. That's my reason to buy all that Z-mount gear new.
 

Rick Kibbey

Active member
Now is a time to be positive and think of the great things we already have. I realize the world is a little wonky right now and that is causing issues at many levels. My positive spin on this is the FTZ allows us to use any F mount lens, they are plentiful in the used market at pretty decent prices. Get one that meets your need and sell it when the 800mm comes in. I'm using a 500mm PF and its greatly matched with my Z systems. There are many used sites both locally and on the internet. Go find one you can use and do your thing. When the 800mm become available go out and do it all again with it. This is a repetitive sport that we do over and over and getting a better picture is what drives us. I for one am antsy for my 800mm but can still do what I love with the great equipment I have. Hope you all capture "that shot" you've been looking for. We can only do that by going out and shoot, not worrying when that next great piece of equipment comes in.
 

ssheipel

Well-known member
Now is a time to be positive and think of the great things we already have. I realize the world is a little wonky right now and that is causing issues at many levels. My positive spin on this is the FTZ allows us to use any F mount lens, they are plentiful in the used market at pretty decent prices. Get one that meets your need and sell it when the 800mm comes in. I'm using a 500mm PF and its greatly matched with my Z systems. There are many used sites both locally and on the internet. Go find one you can use and do your thing. When the 800mm become available go out and do it all again with it. This is a repetitive sport that we do over and over and getting a better picture is what drives us. I for one am antsy for my 800mm but can still do what I love with the great equipment I have. Hope you all capture "that shot" you've been looking for. We can only do that by going out and shoot, not worrying when that next great piece of equipment comes in.
Precisely.
 

Franb

New member
I am in NZ as well and ordered in April. I know one person in Auckland has received theirs an he know if another in Auckland who have theirs but I have heard nothing. I am go on an overseas birding trip on Monday and was hoping to have it by then 😢
 

O

Well-known member
Dismal performance, from a Billion dollar organization, they have money and power to do anything, i understand even should they be hand made, get more hands, less excuses.

Only an opinion
 

Nikondale

Active member
Supporting Member
I am an NPS and ordered an 800mm as soon as it was announced. My store is still waiting as I am.
 

Warren D

Well-known member
Exotics take time to produce. The new 600EFL several years back was made in similar monthly quantities as is the 800 F mount. I recall they were in short supply at introduction and many waited months to get theirs. Demand for the $12K lens wasn't anywhere near the demand for the 800pf. Production levels being similar (though the PF glass is more difficult to make) what we are seeing is a huge increase in demand. While $6500 US is still steep for a lens it's a relative bargain compared to the $16.3K of the F mount 800. We now have a lot of folks in reach of an 800mm, even the "old" way to get there was a 600 w 1.4 tc at double the price. It's also the first Z series lens over 400mm. We saw similar problems when the 500pf was released, even a year later when I got mine I happened to call my dealer the day after their latest allotment (of 2 units) arrived at the store. Both were sold within the day and they were "out of stock" for another month or two until the next shipment.
If Nikon's production is in the realm of 400-500 units per month, that doesn't go far world-wide. That number also assumes no parts issues. I recall Thom Hogan had some thoughts on this a week or two back. Could Nikon build a new production line or 2? They could but at some point they will be able to sustain demand with the current production capacity then costs are incurred to shift to other products.
 

EricBowles

Moderator
Supporting Member
All of which suggests that they have very poor production management. If you know your market and your product, it does not take great intellect to realise that demand will be great if you announce a product at a comparatively affordable price that will obviously be attractive to many. You therefore prepare your production and stock accordingly. Failure to estimate expected demand and to prepare for that show that something is very wrong in their business model.
Maybe - but how do you estimate demand for a $6500 lens before it's announced? Or with the 400mm f/2.8, a $14,000 lens.

Here's what I understand they do. They look at historical sales of similar lenses. Sometimes - as with the 400mm f/2.8 - they have a lot of data but the historical volumes are still pretty low. The 400mm f/2.8 AFS lenses averaged about 1000 units per year - and less over the last 7 years. Total AFS 400mm sales was around 15,000 units over the past 20 years. Then they consider increased demand associated with a key product at launch, feedback from professionals and large corporate buyers, etc. Based on that they adjust the estimate - maybe triple the historical product level and establish production at that level. They go through the supply chain and contract with suppliers as well as Nikon Glass to produce components for the higher volume level. Production starts and they produce a couple of months of inventory of components and finished models. Now it's time to announce the lens, and volume is 10 times their estimate. Part of that is due to people placing more than one order, but there is real demand. Add Covid shut downs into the mix for China components. Add complexity and the relative inflexibility of some components - such as large lens elements or PF lenses - which can take 6-9 months to produce.

I agree - it's certainly a challenge to estimate volume. For the 800mm PF you have a lens that costs more than double the cost of the 500mm PF and is much more specialized. Roland Vink's site shows about 27,000 lenses sold since 2018. That lens was backordered for the first year, but it's a very good lens and readily available since late 2019. You could easily estimate 8-10,000 800mm PF units for the first year. My lens received in May had a serial number of 3400 or so, suggesting initial production was part of a first year forecast of 10-12,000 units or 800-1000 units per month. I'd say that's a pretty good estimate.

The critical components are probably the PF lens, semiconductor chips and processors, and focus motors. My understanding is there is limited ability to change production of those items on a short term basis.
 

Amasaback

Member
My dealer checked for me and they said that NPS orders for the 800 should expect ~ 12 months from time of the order (June). Yet I know of an NPS order in early May that came in 2 weeks. It does seem some non-NPS orders have been filled, but not anywhere I have checked. It is all very confusing and a bit disappointed. I was hoping Nikon would have gotten ahead of the demand on this one.
 

Stumpy

Active member
Nikon have stopped any further orders for the 800/6.3, so they now know how many are on order !. So why can't Nikon make a statement to the effect.;
If manufacturing continues at the present pace , 25% of orders will be shipped by such and such a date (e.g. mid-Sept) the remaining or 50% will be sent by ......... etc. etc.
Surely they owe this to their loyal customers, and to persons that have put down a deposit of sometimes a $1,000 or more , many months ago !!!
 
Last edited:

Nextlife1

Member
My dealer checked for me and they said that NPS orders for the 800 should expect ~ 12 months from time of the order (June). Yet I know of an NPS order in early May that came in 2 weeks. It does seem some non-NPS orders have been filled, but not anywhere I have checked. It is all very confusing and a bit disappointed. I was hoping Nikon would have gotten ahead of the demand on this one.

I put a deposit down with my local dealer when development of this lens was announced, and received the one (or possibly one of two) lens they received in July. I am not NPS.
 

O

Well-known member
I put a deposit down with my local dealer when development of this lens was announced, and received the one (or possibly one of two) lens they received in July. I am not NPS.
Like the bear, you have to shake the tree for the goods to fall...........

Remember high demand slow long delivery preserves high prices and even generates new demand as people fear missing out, and often they will pay anything to get one, their doing this with many different cars as well.
 

JAS

Well-known member
Maybe - but how do you estimate demand for a $6500 lens before it's announced? Or with the 400mm f/2.8, a $14,000 lens.

Here's what I understand they do. They look at historical sales of similar lenses. Sometimes - as with the 400mm f/2.8 - they have a lot of data but the historical volumes are still pretty low. The 400mm f/2.8 AFS lenses averaged about 1000 units per year - and less over the last 7 years. Total AFS 400mm sales was around 15,000 units over the past 20 years. Then they consider increased demand associated with a key product at launch, feedback from professionals and large corporate buyers, etc. Based on that they adjust the estimate - maybe triple the historical product level and establish production at that level. They go through the supply chain and contract with suppliers as well as Nikon Glass to produce components for the higher volume level. Production starts and they produce a couple of months of inventory of components and finished models. Now it's time to announce the lens, and volume is 10 times their estimate. Part of that is due to people placing more than one order, but there is real demand. Add Covid shut downs into the mix for China components. Add complexity and the relative inflexibility of some components - such as large lens elements or PF lenses - which can take 6-9 months to produce.

I agree - it's certainly a challenge to estimate volume. For the 800mm PF you have a lens that costs more than double the cost of the 500mm PF and is much more specialized. Roland Vink's site shows about 27,000 lenses sold since 2018. That lens was backordered for the first year, but it's a very good lens and readily available since late 2019. You could easily estimate 8-10,000 800mm PF units for the first year. My lens received in May had a serial number of 3400 or so, suggesting initial production was part of a first year forecast of 10-12,000 units or 800-1000 units per month. I'd say that's a pretty good estimate.

The critical components are probably the PF lens, semiconductor chips and processors, and focus motors. My understanding is there is limited ability to change production of those items on a short term basis.
Question here - With the long lead time on glass making, how do you know your yield of usable glass until to do production runs? If it takes a long time to get the glass, you maybe cannot overproduce to protect yourself. I also would expect pricing to be tied to glass yield, especially on exotics like an 800 PF. Maybe they cannot set pricing until they know the yield and then it can take time to ramp up production if the yield is high and they can lower the price of the new lens. Thinking like a scientist here, which I am, so correct me if you have a better explanation.
 
Last edited:

O

Well-known member
I hear all the reasons, from chip shortages to the sky is falling, cant get glass, well its a PF lens !

All the issues and challenges have been around for over 2 years now and wearing thin, every company in the world is using the same excuses for what ever reason, some have genuine issues and reason due to POOR management of their business, many are simply riding it for what its worth.

As a billion $ company with a massive new head office, record profits and a heavy new lens line up, its all just a little strange and really unacceptable.

Delayed supply low production capacity overwhelming order take off for what ever reason is really a poor act, they have known the challenges or risks before opening their mouths, so don't feel sorry for them is my feeling.

Its all like your kid with all the excuses why they didn't do their home work last night...again.

Nikon knows exactly what its doing..........could it be the lens may be in need or reworking before being released who knows.

Why open your mouth announcing something is available when it really isn't other than a piddling trickle.

Is it suddenly evident due to overwhelming demand that the 800 is unexpectedly likely to kill other products in the pipeline so going slow is a way out, who knows its all a wild guess.

The assumptions were all wrong, a bit like pols consistently being wrong who knows.

They need to either sit on the potty and do something rather than just keeping it warm or get off and let someone else have ago.

One company goes slow so they all go slow ?. All the supply issues are not new surprises, they have had years to work around them.

Predicting sales off take is often monitored by early roomers teasers gauged through on line forums and chatter social media, Apple launch their phones that way i recall...........so hey, generate interest take deposits drag your heals, its a potential cocktail that you can up the pricing on later if you really dare, the perfect platform is Due to INFLATION yeeeee everyone will cop that LOL, and short supply or raw materials is due to the war somewhere..........$ bingo.

I don't know the truth nor does it matter, if they were a start up i would understand, but their a seasoned successful powerful profitable organization acting like their not.
They are master marketers or call it what ever you want.........that's business.......

Only an opinion
 

EricBowles

Moderator
Supporting Member
I hear all the reasons, from chip shortages to the sky is falling, cant get glass, well its a PF lens !

All the issues and challenges have been around for over 2 years now and wearing thin, every company in the world is using the same excuses for what ever reason, some have genuine issues and reason due to POOR management of their business, many are simply riding it for what its worth.

As a billion $ company with a massive new head office, record profits and a heavy new lens line up, its all just a little strange and really unacceptable.

Delayed supply low production capacity overwhelming order take off for what ever reason is really a poor act, they have known the challenges or risks before opening their mouths, so don't feel sorry for them is my feeling.

Its all like your kid with all the excuses why they didn't do their home work last night...again.

Nikon knows exactly what its doing..........could it be the lens may be in need or reworking before being released who knows.

Why open your mouth announcing something is available when it really isn't other than a piddling trickle.

Is it suddenly evident due to overwhelming demand that the 800 is unexpectedly likely to kill other products in the pipeline so going slow is a way out, who knows its all a wild guess.

The assumptions were all wrong, a bit like pols consistently being wrong who knows.

They need to either sit on the potty and do something rather than just keeping it warm or get off and let someone else have ago.

One company goes slow so they all go slow ?. All the supply issues are not new surprises, they have had years to work around them.

Predicting sales off take is often monitored by early roomers teasers gauged through on line forums and chatter social media, Apple launch their phones that way i recall...........so hey, generate interest take deposits drag your heals, its a potential cocktail that you can up the pricing on later if you really dare, the perfect platform is Due to INFLATION yeeeee everyone will cop that LOL, and short supply or raw materials is due to the war somewhere..........$ bingo.

I don't know the truth nor does it matter, if they were a start up i would understand, but their a seasoned successful powerful profitable organization acting like their not.
They are master marketers or call it what ever you want.........that's business.......

Only an opinion
So the reason auto makers have shortages is that management is inept or irrational? Same as the reason there are shortages of other products - avocados, toys, concert tickets, etc.? Are you really aware of any company with rising sales and profits over six consecutive quarters that is grossly mismanaged as you suggestion?

In any business there are constraints, costs, and optimum production levels. No business views production of a single product without context - especially for a new product.

Out of 30 lenses and eight Z cameras there is a problem with delivery times of more than 30 days on just four items. The only one that represents more than 1% of unit sales is the Z9 - and it's still in single digits as a percent of Nikon cameras sold.

No need to bash further.
 

O

Well-known member
Well said.
Last comment on this point, I guess what i am saying in short,

Nikon has made billions in profits recently, a new head office for i understand $74 million ?

They announce a 800mm with a big fan fair and marketing budget, everyone gets excited starts selling their older gear ordering the new lens and this highly profitable giant with insane amount of resources cant deal with the challenge of meeting demand other than 20 or 25 ?? lenses a day is that even correct, even knowing the supply culture around the world and experiencing things for the last two years no effort has been made to boost supply to meet the orders reaching in cases 3-4 months old.

If it was a mom and pop show i would understand, but a profitable global corporation ?

I would have done much more to deliver, its not that hard.

Have a look at Phillips Resperonics global recall and replacement years worth of production of their extensive range of sleep apnia products globally, even during the pandemic, when real labor shortages existed, real material shortages existed they succeeded in building and replacing again years worth of machines with replacement products in record time. Very professional.

I got 2 units replaced valued at $5000, and the 800mm is pumping out at 20 or 25 - 30 units a day with back orders i am recalling some 4 months old......????

No amount of statistics analysis excuses washes the slate clean, that's just accountancy culture drawing down the blind hiding the ineptness.

A lot of Manufacturing companies are trending to announcing new product with big launches, taking forward orders, delivering much later, 20-25 units a day abysmal.

The drums are beating calling for calm, so Out of respect to the nice people in this forum i will put down my bashing tool.

Only an opinion
 

GrandNagus50

Well-known member
The longer the wait for the 800mm PF the less I find myself thinking about it or, to tell the truth, caring. I have enough kit to take photos of whatever I need to take photos of, and I can easily pretend that this lens was never announced and does not exist. Of course, I am the one who started the "Do you ever not feel like taking photos?" thread, so I am in a mood where whether or not I receive a particular lens seems fairly unimportant. Another factor in my current indifference to the whole thing is that I am a two-system shooter, and for my M43/Olympus system I do own the 150-400mm zoom, which is pretty darned wonderful. My cup runneth over.
 

BillW

Well-known member
Supporting Member
I ordered an 800 mm PF from my local dealer when it was announced (had arranged it with him, subject to confirming the price, a few days before the official announcement) and am first on his list. I later added NPS and hope that helps. But still expect a longish wait at this point.

Delays are not entirely new to Nikon and predate the pandemic in some cases. The 500 mm PF was hard to get for a long time, pre-pandemic. And there was a period of time, pre-pandemic, where it was hard to get a D850 — I ended up getting one at Best Buy, as my local dealer and B&H were out of stock for so long before a trip I had scheduled and wanted to have the D850 for. I don’t mean this to suggest that the pandemic has no effect. I’m sure it does and a material one. It may also mean that it is not entirely economical to do initial production runs at a very high rate that will not last over time?

In the meantime, I’m getting very nice images with my Z9 and Z 100-400 (got those in January and December non-NPS, respectively, so I’ve done pretty well on prior deliveries) and 500 mm PF, with and without Z and F mount TCs.
 
Top