800mm Z lens orders

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Personally I'm deeply invested in nikon and want them to succeed. I'm now waiting 4 months for the 800mm. No information. Zero. I am fully conscious of all of the diverse challenges facing many many industries at the moment. But when I look at my local consumer choice website, I find that at this moment in time, the Sony 600mm f4 is in stock in no fewer than 4 local outlets. Maybe nikon just had a particularly bad way of managing production, stock, communication, and consumer expectations. Or maybe Sony wasnt hit by covid and the semiconductor shortage to the same extent.

It sucks having to wait no doubt about it and I'm sure it's very frustrating! As far as the Sony 600 being in stock in 4 places that is to be expected with a lens that was released about 2yrs ago, most who wanted it have it but there was a long wait two years ago, I had a friend waiting for it, I'm sure it was worth the wait. The 800pf was released maybe 4 months ago and I'm sure it will outsell the Sony 600 buy a decent margin. Same thing happened with the 500pf, people waited a long time for it but it was well worth the wait as it became one of the best lenses of all time by any company.

Hope you get yours soon and your frustration and others frustration is eased.....fingers crossed for you all waiting.
 
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It’s not really the current supply change issues that’s causing the issue if the lead time on glass is long. I didn’t realize it was that long but since it is amd you need to make lens blanks the right diameter and thickness to support grinding down the line…or maybe just polishing if a lot of the shape is molded in…dunno…then management might have to guess pretty far out from delivery of finished lenses…and if they guess wrong then production capacity is what it is. Add in the assembly line for the lenses…and the highly skilled and trained people doing it, and that those people can make 800PFs or 400/4.5s or 400/2.8s and they can’t just whistle up more capacity. Sucks…but it is what it is and they can’t just toss some of their millions at the problem and solve it tomorrow…and even if they could do that it might not make long term sense to pay for more capacity that once the initial demand goes away might not be fully utilized. Yeah, they could design more lenses but the optical engineers and designers might likewise be fully tasked already. Just like the immense funding the government tossed t vaccine production capacity for the current virus…the company will/might lose money by ramping up expensive but temporarily needed capacity…and like it or not the company exists to make a profit and a publicly traded company has a legal fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.
 
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Personally I'm deeply invested in nikon and want them to succeed. I'm now waiting 4 months for the 800mm. No information. Zero. I am fully conscious of all of the diverse challenges facing many many industries at the moment. But when I look at my local consumer choice website, I find that at this moment in time, the Sony 600mm f4 is in stock in no fewer than 4 local outlets. Maybe nikon just had a particularly bad way of managing production, stock, communication, and consumer expectations. Or maybe Sony wasnt hit by covid and the semiconductor shortage to the same extent.



When the dealer sold me my New SLWB Toyota Hi Ace GL Van, my name and email address went to Toyota Japan.

I got a very regular progress report.......from JAPAN

Your Hi ace is scheduled for production 20th April
Your Hi Ace is on the assembly line to day
Your Hi ace is in the paint shop today
Your Hi ace is in final quality inspection phase today
Your High Ace is on board the Toyota Sister ship The Princess Friday XXXX
Your Hi ace will be arriving Sydney XXXX
Your Hi Ace will be delivered for you to your dealer this Wed XXXX

Two days later the local Toyota dealer calls and says "Your Hi Ace is being fitted with the pre ordered accessories and being detailed tomorrow, when would you like it dleiverd or collect it.

We packed some nice sandwiches, a thermos of tea, we jumped on the regional train that took us for a beautiful coastal ride through stunning sea scape and forests to North Woolongong Toyota on the south of Sydney, we stepped of the train walked across the street, there it was the Hi Ace with a red ribbon on it..........

Toyota experience Japan

Nikon could take a leaf out of Toyota's book.


"I'm now waiting 4 months for the 800mm. No information. Zero."
I think this is very sad and unprofessional and frankly arrogant for a Billion $ company to put its customer through an experience like that.....................its 2022............not 1945.
Excuses don't cut it anymore, they have all been flogged to death by everyone.

A problem is not just a problem but really an opportunity, and opportunity to fix things.


"Dont tell me whats wrong or what the problem is I know this, tell me what the solution is" this was my board room mantra when hearing all the highly paid executives offering explanations as why things are the way they are.


If not all ready done as i could have missed it, I feel at least Nikon could say something like below, and take a leaf out of Toyota's book.


"Please be aware, the 800mm lenses are unique, and all hand assembled one at a time by a skilled employee, this is to ensure the highest quality and permanence is achieved.


Availability currently is estimated to be around 400-500 units per month, deposit paid orders will be allocated priority in the order received.

We are currently working on ways to increase production to meet demand levels.


Nikon puts quality at the forefront, as well as the service of its customers first, we are doing all we can at the moment.

Nikon will keep you updated, please log into the following link XXXXXXXX register your order details and we will provide you with a progressive update of you order.



The above is the kind of thing I would have done, again if i have missed it and it has been done then I am sorry.


I mean its all a simple software mailing program............its better than "I'm now waiting 4 months for the 800mm. No information. Zero."


You can see why Toyota is a global leader in its field.

Again Nikon could take a leaf out of their book.

Sorry Eric, i still had one last little bash left in me to get out LOL

Only an opinion
 
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So the reason auto makers have shortages is that management is inept or irrational? Same as the reason there are shortages of other products - avocados, toys, concert tickets, etc.? Are you really aware of any company with rising sales and profits over six consecutive quarters that is grossly mismanaged as you suggestion?

In any business there are constraints, costs, and optimum production levels. No business views production of a single product without context - especially for a new product.

Out of 30 lenses and eight Z cameras there is a problem with delivery times of more than 30 days on just four items. The only one that represents more than 1% of unit sales is the Z9 - and it's still in single digits as a percent of Nikon cameras sold.

No need to bash further.
Well said. We ordered new house windows. They are made of wood, plastic, glass and some metal. Lead time is 8 months for install from multiple providers. Nothing exotic there.
If we wanted certain types of doors, we couldn’t even get a delivery date due to fittings suppliers.
Nikon is doing what they need to do.
 
My simple plastic and metal garden shed took 6 months due to shortages. It's not pleasant for any of us, but it is what it is. Hyperinflation (over 10% in the UK!), global fuel prices rocketing, global food shortages - due to the Russia / Ukraine war electronic parts shortages through earthquake/tsunami factory damage, and sadly, the list is endless.
Patience is a commodity these days.
 
The only thing more painful than waiting for this lens (and let's be realistic, it's a privilege to be able to even afford gear in this price range) is reading the repetitive posts from armchair product managers.

Only an opinion
We are not " armchair product managers " , we are "CUSTOMERS" that consider it would be courteous of Nikon to advise us, when THEIR product managers consider the lens will be delivered .

Only an opinion
 
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Griping isn't gonna deliver the product any faster. It may be therapeutic to vent but is it necessary to do it over and over?

By the way, I also paid a deposit (25%) for the lens. It will be the only telephoto I own (once I sell my 200-500mm) so I'm all in.
 
I saw a few people who got them in the last couple of days in the US, UK and Australia.
 
There must have been a "lens Drop". I was notified Tuesday that my 400 F4.5 was being readied for shipment. I think that means they are waiting for the CC charges to successfully go through.
 
Maybe - but how do you estimate demand for a $6500 lens before it's announced? Or with the 400mm f/2.8, a $14,000 lens.

Here's what I understand they do. They look at historical sales of similar lenses. Sometimes - as with the 400mm f/2.8 - they have a lot of data but the historical volumes are still pretty low. The 400mm f/2.8 AFS lenses averaged about 1000 units per year - and less over the last 7 years. Total AFS 400mm sales was around 15,000 units over the past 20 years. Then they consider increased demand associated with a key product at launch, feedback from professionals and large corporate buyers, etc. Based on that they adjust the estimate - maybe triple the historical product level and establish production at that level. They go through the supply chain and contract with suppliers as well as Nikon Glass to produce components for the higher volume level. Production starts and they produce a couple of months of inventory of components and finished models. Now it's time to announce the lens, and volume is 10 times their estimate. Part of that is due to people placing more than one order, but there is real demand. Add Covid shut downs into the mix for China components. Add complexity and the relative inflexibility of some components - such as large lens elements or PF lenses - which can take 6-9 months to produce.

I agree - it's certainly a challenge to estimate volume. For the 800mm PF you have a lens that costs more than double the cost of the 500mm PF and is much more specialized. Roland Vink's site shows about 27,000 lenses sold since 2018. That lens was backordered for the first year, but it's a very good lens and readily available since late 2019. You could easily estimate 8-10,000 800mm PF units for the first year. My lens received in May had a serial number of 3400 or so, suggesting initial production was part of a first year forecast of 10-12,000 units or 800-1000 units per month. I'd say that's a pretty good estimate.

The critical components are probably the PF lens, semiconductor chips and processors, and focus motors. My understanding is there is limited ability to change production of those items on a short term basis.
Very valid points. In addition, labor availability is trending lower all over. My local fast-food joints can't get enough workers to serve their normal number of meal-time customers. In addition to that, some simple items are out of stock, nearly everywhere I shop! There is no easy or quick fix for any of this.
 
Ordered April 6, received June 14. NPS. Ordered from Bedford Camera & Video. They're the best. If anyone is looking, call Steve Elkins from Bedford and tell him I sent you.

Thanks, Frank Ballatore

Steve Elkins
Vice President
Bedford Camera and Video, Inc
(479) 381-2592
 
I don't think there is any rhyme or reason regarding NPS and non-NPS. I ordered NPS from NikonUSA in April and have yet to hear a word on it.
 
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