I’m happy with the D500. The next body I get will be a full frame mirrorless. I don’t own a FF . It will probably be a z8.
Anyone else waiting for a Nikon Z (CROP SENSOR) camera that replaces the D500?
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EricKlees
Well-known member
The advantage is a DX 24mp sensor will have the pixel density of over a 50mp FF sensor. A 24mp FF sensor like the Z6 I, II or III leaves no room for any real cropping for wildlife shooter.For me, the Z9 is likely to become the backup body to the Z8
I can see the advantages of a DX camera for price, but I wonder how important it actually will be once the Z6//Z7 updates become available.
So a body with the AF performance of the Z8/Z9 in a 24mp APS-C sensor would be more like an $1800-$2200 body. The camera with the ability and price people in that bracket can afford. Doesn't necessarily need to be a stacked sensor and can still have a shutter for the fastest of subjects.
EricKlees
Well-known member
It doesn't give you more "reach" it give more equivalent FOV. BUT it DOES give you higher pixel density. A D500 20.9mp sensor gives you the pixel density of a 48mp FF sensor. In Crop mode, a 45.7mp sensor like a D850, Z7/7II and Z8/Z9 give you a 19.2mp image. So there is a difference in detail if you crop a 45.7mp image to the same FOV, you'll have less MP and less pixel density.
A 24mp APS-C sensor will give a pixel density of roughly a 51-52mp FF sensor.
The pixel density of a 24mp APS-C sensor captures more detail overall and especially if you are cropping the 45.7mp image all the way to the FOV of the 24mp APS-C sensor.
Technically…you’re correct of course, but I have a hard time believing that either on screen output or in a print there will be any visible difference between 19.4MP and 24MP…and frankly even at 1:1 I don’t think there would be a visible difference in anything other than one of those line test charts…
EricKlees
Well-known member
I could see a difference on my 4k monitors at 100% and could see a difference in prints of 24x36 down to 16x24, though slight. It was there. That was why I eventually sold my D850 for another D500
joe43
Well-known member
It might be interesting to look at examine the sales and other related statistics for cameras with smaller sensors used for "wildlife like cameras" with 1 inch sensors and micro 4/3's sensors. FWIW I still have my D500 and the 500mm pf lens.
You face the neverending quandary. Even harder now the Z8 is out and seemingly more available than many thought -- I speak as an owner of 2 Z8 and 2 Z9. The Z8 is spectacularly good -- and provides 19.5mp in DX crop -- a perfect D500 replacement and so much more; but NOT the 26mp or 30mp DX that it appear many (including you) want.
Just a D500 replacement is not enough Nikon has to deliver more and more resolution but at what price?
Well we will have to wait to see which Body Nikon will release later this year.
If you buy a Z8 you will still have a fantastic camera in the Z8 -- quite possibly the best "not a flagship" body Nikon has ever produced -- so much better than my D850 and D500 were and certainly anything that came before them.
As I set out in an early post in this thread - I greatly doubt that a Z90 with 30+MP sensor and all the Expeed 7 goodness will be available for less than US$3,500 and it may be closer US$4,00 or possibly more. What makes the Z8/Z9 so special is the fastest sensor in user today; a sensor that to support dual channel data delivery that supports a blackout free EVF and an AF-system that refreshes every 1/120th second.
I simply do not see Nikon coming out with a Z90 that would NOT use a similar shutter free design to the Z8/Z9.
You mention 30+ MP -- well this may be possible today -- but not shutterless (well not that we know). AND as a result it will not perform like the Z8/Z9 and this is the quandary Nikon faces -- some folk want a 30+MP Z6iii; others a 60+MP Z7iii and then "finally" but not least those like you who want a 30=MP DX body, which is equivalent to a 70.3+MP full frame AND I simply do not see it. I also do not believe folk have fully understood the Diffraction Limitations such a very high pixel density imposes on its use. [Sony A7RV users are already facing DLA's at F/7 and this is impacting the benefits of such high resolution when used in combination with "the more affordable glass". Matt Irwin posted a video comparing a 45.7mp sensor with the Sony A7RV and YES he pushed it by closing down to f/16 - but the effects start to show at f/5.7 and are apparent at f/7.1 and quite noticeable at f/8.5 == which is one reason why Canon is alleged to be holding off on their ultra high res APS-C body -- since much of their most affordable long glass comes with very small apertures.
26mp DX gets 6k and performance like the Fuji H2S -- a seemingly great camera with a 26mp DX sized sensor in a small form factor. This is the equivalent of 61mp in FX and as a result already in wider use, but not on FX wirth a Z8/Z9 level stacked BSI CMOS sensor.
The Fuji X-H2 has a 39.8 MP DX sixed sensor - that is a 93.2MP Full-frame equivalent and diffraction is already reported as an issue at f/5.6. Does this matter well no if you are going to post uncropped images on social media -- but if you are going to crop in from a 39.8mp image to "say" 11mp then YES you will see an increasingly soft image as apertures f/5.6 and higher are used. A 33mp sensor is good upto f/6.3; a 26mp upto F/8 and so on.
Thom Hogan made the remark the competitor Nikon has to watch-out for i the DX space is Fuji -- not Canon or Sony. I agree. Nikon has better lenses and YES the 180/200 - 600 will drop sometime this year I am sure -- but what DX body.
Will Nikon update the Z50 (yes); will Nikon drop a Z70 or Z80 higher resolution but slower fps and reduced AF Dx body possibly -- would such a body respond to the D500 replacement HAWKS who demand a Z9/Z8 in DX and very very high MP and performance --- NO.
So - for me I see the FX line up being refreshed and potentially expanded with a Zf -- so that is a Z6iii (30mp); a Z7iii (60mp) and a Z5ii (24mp) all wirth flow down of Expeed 7 (lite) goodness. BEFORE a super high resolution super fast DX pro dody is launched. AND therefore as a result my guess is you would be safe with a Z8 for quite sometime.
BUT Nikon has been really strong with its NDAs and keeping everyone -- particularly Peter in Nikon Rumours in the dark -- and that is a good thing unless you want to save your money for a not yet even rumoured body to emerge and then it does.
I think one point that is being missed a lot is that a DX sized camera will certainly cost significantly less. That is a "feature" that an incredible number of people are looking and/or waiting for. 
Bubbahotep
Well-known member
I understand Hogan's argument for a Z500. People want a modestly priced hotrod that provides world class performance. While Fujifilm offers something tantalizing in that regard, it's lenses "fall short" (ouch) for wildlife shooters. This remains an opportunity for Nikon to capitalize on. Having just bought a Z8, I would be interested in a Z6iii or Z500 as a backup camera. If the Z500 can knock out 20-40 RAW images a second and handle low light situations well (which the Z8/9 models are not known for), Nikon might have a hit on its hands.
John Navitsky
Well-known member
i think the price is the key thing. basically the d500 replacement would be a z8 with a dx sized sensor. the thing that will make it sense is if they can price it substantially less than a z8. the thing that will allow them to offer it substantially less than a z8 is how much cheaper they can make it. the only thing different would be the sensor, so it comes down to 1) the development cost of the sensor, and 2) the price difference between the fx and dx sensor.
my guess is they have to price it about $1k less than the z8 for it to make any sense whatsoever.
the d500 was introduced at $2k, inflation adjusted to $2.5.
i don't think they could do that. $3k... mahbee. can they make it work economically at $3k? dunno.
there's no reason it would be $4k. it will be cheaper to make a dx sensor than the fx sensor (note, i'm assuming they retain the same design and pixel density of the current fx stacked sensor, just smaller. that would be the easiest engineering solution). afaik, yield drives costs and a smaller chip of the same design would inherently be cheaper. the question is how much. i think $3.5k would be easy for them to do, but it's unclear $500 is enough incentive for people to buy them.
agree. it almost has to be simply a z8 with a dx stacked sensor in order for them to leverage sunk engineering costs and favorable feature sets to the d500.
as well as pragmatism. you aren't going to want to design a technically more complicated sensor for a camera you are going to have to sell for less. a d500 is going to have to be a lopped off z8/z9 sensor that you can retain your sunk engineering costs or something you can buy off the shelf and, as you point out, that's going to have to be a stacked sensor and you don't have a lot of options there.
EricKlees
Well-known member
I don't really get the noise issue poeple complain about with the Z9. If people learn how to shoot the Z9 in low light you can get exceptional results and with just a little effort in post get very nice images. These are extreme examples but still very good images. The first image shot was 30 min after sunset 1/50 f6.3 ISO6400. The second image of the 2 fox kits was shot 15 min after sunset at 1/500 f6.3 ISO6400. Both were shot hand held with the Z9 and 800PF lens
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EricKlees
Well-known member
I agree in theory, I have been saying this for a couple months not for a D500 ML type body. The the easiest way to make it more affordable is have it have an APS-c 24mp (maybe 30mp) sensor and the Z9/Z8 AF system and cut the Video specs to maybe a max 4k 120p (I think that is a given due to a sensor with less then 38mp) or maybe just limit it to 1080 60p recording and if not a stacked sensor put in a shutter. I think whatever is cheaper, the stacked sensor or a shutter.
abc123brian
Well-known member
I agree and I wonder how important a stacked sensor actually is to this group. If you look at the reviews of the Sony A7Rv, most rave about the AF saying it’s at least as good as the A1 if not better. The few complaints are regarding slow fps and rolling shutter in e-shutter/video. The Canon R7 gets a lot of positive feedback too. Both use traditional sensor design. It’s easier to make the readout speed faster in a smaller sensor so it might be possible to make a great APS-C camera, with a relatively fast traditional BSI sensor for a competitive price point and give it excellent AF. It wouldn’t have completely blackout free EVF or fully eliminate rolling shutter but does it matter.I think one point that is being missed a lot is that a DX sized camera will certainly cost significantly less. That is a "feature" that an incredible number of people are looking and/or waiting for.
John Navitsky
Well-known member
at this point, i don't think they are going to do a mechanical shutter. MAYBE they might use a non stacked shutter that's "fast enough" ala R6, but i just don't see them using a shutter for a NEW camera. i could see them _consider_ it for a z6iii where maybe they decide they need to update it prior to better sensors being available, but the fact they introduced the z8 instead of an R6 styled z6iii sheds doubt on even that
EricKlees
Well-known member
AF isn't relying on it being a stacked sensor. The stacked sensor allows for a much faster sensor readout. Allowing for no rolling shutter when not using a shutter. This is what allows Nikon to omit the shutter in the Z8 and Z8. So with no stacked sensor, Nikon would have to add a shutter to this type of camera
EricKlees
Well-known member
I agree they want to go away from a shutter in all cameras. BUT if they do make this APS-C 24mp with the Z9 type AF system it is likely not coming as a shutterless stacked sensor. But I think it would have to be a stacked sensor to have the full AF speed everyone wants and would make it a cheaper design overall
John Navitsky
Well-known member
Right. He's saying for cameras like the R6 that have a faster readout but not stacked that it might be "good enough".
John Navitsky
Well-known member
i agree that it's hard to figure out how one could make a stacked dx sensor camera be $1k cheaper than a z8, and i think you'd have to do that.
but i'm also saying if it's not a stacked sensor, it's probably a z50ii rather than a d500 replacement.
EricKlees
Well-known member
Maybe but the R6 still has rolling shutter for sports golf and baseball on the batter and fast animals like a tern or swallow or even a kingfisher
abc123brian
Well-known member
The faster readout of stacked sensors also allows for more AF calculations per second to be performed, at least to my limited knowledge of the sensor design. My point is that in this class of camera, a traditional sensor, mechanical shutter, and a semi usable electronic shutter is likely sufficient.
John Navitsky
Well-known member
agree. it seems like that might be an ok trade-off for an entry level camera like the z50, but it doesn't seem like it's acceptable for a prosumer camera like the d500. yes, you can have a physical shutter, but it seems they really don't want to do that
EricKlees
Well-known member
There is also another path to this. There is a huge difference in 20fps and 15fps on the Z9's ability to shoot and write and calculate AF calculations. Maybe this type of camera for these type of people maybe ok with 15fps and negate the need for a stacked sensor?
John Navitsky
Well-known member
i don't think it is directly AF calculations, but rather subject detection calculations, which, i admit, are very intermixed
The sensor is already out and in two cameras: fuji Xh2s and Sony FX30. APS-C, BSI CMOS, 26mp. Sony will have a stills camera with it soon and Nikon will surely have one too.
EricKlees
Well-known member
I think the last hold outs on the D500's for that $2000 to $2500 price tag would be happy with the EVF, 15fps and a sticky fast AF system that is as good or very close to the AF in the Z9/Z8 in a 24mp APS-C sensor and maybe maxing out to 1080 60p video. This also gets them off fine tuning lenses to get critical lens sharpness as well. There has to be trade offs from going from $4000 and $5500 to that $2000-$2500 price range