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I don't think anybody outside of Nikon knows for sure…but personally I don't think we'll see a 'better' crop sensor Z body. I think the Z50 and Zfc will be it and they're both aimed at consumer level models. They could produce an essentially D500 but mirrorless…but I don't think it would be much bigger than the Z50 and Zfc are since the loss of the mirror box is still going to be there…and because the full frame Z6II and Z7II (and presumably whatever the Z9 without a built in grip will be called) are essentially the same size and weight as the D500 but are FF…and the Z7II in DX mode is approximately the same pixel resolution as the D500 is. So…there really isn't any need to make a 'pro' DX Z body.
 
Hi Levi - Neil is right that no one outside Nikon knows (or would share) specific knowledge of the camera roadmap (don't want to give competitors a leg up ;)

Thom Hogan does some interesting speculation on this topic though: https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/which-z-camera-will-be-next.html

My thought is that a Z90 (aka baby Z9) will come, but not for a couple of years at least, and it won't be super cheap since it will have to have the stacked DX sensor to support a no-mechanical-shutter camera (which would be cheaper than a 45mp FX sensor), etc. It would also be a near FX sized body (like the D500) - you need IBIS in there too ;) My speculation which is worth......haha

Cheers!

...Dave...
 
I don't think anybody outside of Nikon knows for sure…but personally I don't think we'll see a 'better' crop sensor Z body. I think the Z50 and Zfc will be it and they're both aimed at consumer level models. They could produce an essentially D500 but mirrorless…but I don't think it would be much bigger than the Z50 and Zfc are since the loss of the mirror box is still going to be there…and because the full frame Z6II and Z7II (and presumably whatever the Z9 without a built in grip will be called) are essentially the same size and weight as the D500 but are FF…and the Z7II in DX mode is approximately the same pixel resolution as the D500 is. So…there really isn't any need to make a 'pro' DX Z body.

i think the fact there are so many dx lenses on the lens roadmap suggests there will be new dx bodies.

but, as you suggest, it's probably a good bet they are aimed at the entry level market

and of course, "when" is a hard question. we can assume at least a couple of years between models targeting a given market segment
 
Hi Levi - Neil is right that no one outside Nikon knows (or would share) specific knowledge of the camera roadmap (don't want to give competitors a leg up ;)

Thom Hogan does some interesting speculation on this topic though: https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/which-z-camera-will-be-next.html

My thought is that a Z90 (aka baby Z9) will come, but not for a couple of years at least, and it won't be super cheap since it will have to have the stacked DX sensor to support a no-mechanical-shutter camera (which would be cheaper than a 45mp FX sensor), etc. It would also be a near FX sized body (like the D500) - you need IBIS in there too ;) My speculation which is worth......haha

Cheers!

...Dave...
Will the baby Z9 be a Z90 or a Z 7III. I ask this not for naming but how do you think the Z 6 / Z 7 lines will grown. Is there room between what one would think a Z 7 III would be and a Z 9? Personally I think the baby Z 9 will be the Z 7III at around $3,500-$3,800. Not a lot of space between them.

There could be 60 MP camera without action oriented AF, perhaps a Z 8? Also a Z 50 II with much of the Z 6/Z 7 III AF but in crop body - may be. Speculation is easy, getting it right is much harder.
 
Nikon already many of the core parts for more high end cameras, including: EXPEED7 processor, Z9 AF and EVF code, CFExpress media is now the new standard. The company has no option but to prioritize high performance cameras at both ends of its Z System: DX (Z90) and FX with high resolution sensors and/or Z9 spec AF. The Z50, Zfc and Z5 are already out in the world to grow up its client base. The question at the crux of Nikon's future cameras is how quickly will they upgrade their "primary core MILCs" to stacked-sensors to handle the Z9 blackout free EVF and AF (i.e. Z6 and Z7)? This may be too costly, but it's one way way to sell more Z9 sensors - so the Z7 is more likely to go stacked first.

The possible stand out features of a Z8 (or whatever it's called) will be to extra high resolution for genres seeking high resolution that otherwise is in Medium format: Studio and Landscape genres. Thus 60mp or more FX sensor possibly extended with pixelshift. It's unclear if this camera requires a stacked sensor if it's also to do 8K and handle the EVF specs etc.

The incentive for the Z90 is the impatience over lack of a D500 "equivalent", and a more affordable MILC for action genres, which can also deliver excellent 4K video. Nikon must have known, and already acted on the future trends emerging in new DX MILC's; and Nikon strategists surely made their key decisions many months ago. Thus Z90 must be an urgent priority, because Fujifilm already has its stacked DX sensor in the X-H2 due in 2022, possibly May.

There are few if any crippling gaps considering the combined F and Z Nikkor lens systems, but at least 3 categories in the Z System are standing out more and more .......glaringly, there's no Tilt-shift, Macro-zoom (70-180), medium telephoto zooms (70-200 f4S, 70-300) - all Z mount.

Last but not least, Nikon has the Z mount, the future on which they are rapidly building their future. Its strategic features no longer holds back their mirrorless system (no dual DX/FX mounts, the architecture is not restrictive etc)

Image from a pre-Z System thread on dpr circa June 2018:

Nikon Z_MILC Mount_Sony_Canon New_Sep2018.png
 
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My guess is a DX Z camera will be announced in September - the usual time for that type of announcement. There are a couple of interesting lenses on the roadmap including the 12-28 DX just added. This alone suggests another DX camera coming soon - but it may or may not be an action camera. Nikon's current annual forecast is for 750,000 bodies this year. If they raise that forecast to 800,000 or more, it's likely based on another advanced camera hitting the market.

For wildlife you also have the upcoming 200-600, and the 800 PF and 400 PF cameras. These also seem to be enthusiast/professional level lenses that would not only fit a Z9 but also enthusiast/professional action cameras like a Z90 or a Z6/Z7 series update. The Z6/Z7 series is due for updates late this year if they stay on the normal 2 year cycle.

Everyone has opinions on how Nikon will follow the Z9. My take is the stacked sensor/shutterless/dual readout of the Z9 is fundamental to Nikon's future high performance cameras. It's a differentiator and translates to clear performance benefits. It's also easier and better to use existing technology than to engineer alternative ways of improving EVF readout and camera speed. Those features will be in my next camera however long that takes.
 
My guess is a DX Z camera will be announced in September - the usual time for that type of announcement. There are a couple of interesting lenses on the roadmap including the 12-28 DX just added. This alone suggests another DX camera coming soon - but it may or may not be an action camera. Nikon's current annual forecast is for 750,000 bodies this year. If they raise that forecast to 800,000 or more, it's likely based on another advanced camera hitting the market.

For wildlife you also have the upcoming 200-600, and the 800 PF and 400 PF cameras. These also seem to be enthusiast/professional level lenses that would not only fit a Z9 but also enthusiast/professional action cameras like a Z90 or a Z6/Z7 series update. The Z6/Z7 series is due for updates late this year if they stay on the normal 2 year cycle.

Everyone has opinions on how Nikon will follow the Z9. My take is the stacked sensor/shutterless/dual readout of the Z9 is fundamental to Nikon's future high performance cameras. It's a differentiator and translates to clear performance benefits. It's also easier and better to use existing technology than to engineer alternative ways of improving EVF readout and camera speed. Those features will be in my next camera however long that takes.

The trends biotech entrepreneur Craig Venter and coauthors* identified in the merger of massively parallel computing with genomics began to revolutionize the life sciences in the late 20th century: combining powerful supercomputers with novel methods in molecular biology to achieve high speed genome sequencing. This arena of discovery and applied science continues to become faster and increasingly automated.

And we can expect the impacts of the stacked sensor/shutterless/dual readout solution in the MILC industry may well turn out to be analogous for the imaging industry. Bearing in mind the primary markets of these combined stacked sensors and dedicated hardware is robotics (manufacturing, defense, smart vehicles etc). Obviously, Nikon is just kicking off this revolution. It is also likely the Sensor-CPU-EVF becomes by far the highest unit costs in a MILC. This differential will continue to stand out with rapid innovation in solid state hardware, as Nikon continues to phase out mechanical shutters

In the interim, the camera companies will earn on cameras by expanding and extending returns on existing sensors. However, stacked sensors are expensive and besides the Z9 sensor they may have well committed to at least 1 other such sensor (ie DX). Thus, we can expect more consumer MILCs in the interim to use up existing sensors and other parts in bins... e.g. perhaps a Zf that puts a new skin around a Z6 etc

* Venter, J. C., S. Levy, K. Remington & A. L. Halpern (2003) Massive parallelism, randomness and genomic advances. Nature Genetics 33: 219-227.
 
Nikon already many of the core parts for more high end cameras, including: EXPEED7 processor, Z9 AF and EVF code, CFExpress media is now the new standard. The company has no option but to prioritize high performance cameras at both ends of its Z System: DX (Z90) and FX with high resolution sensors and/or Z9 spec AF. The Z50, Zfc and Z5 are already out in the world to grow up its client base. The question at the crux of Nikon's future cameras is how quickly will they upgrade their "primary core MILCs" to stacked-sensors to handle the Z9 blackout free EVF and AF (i.e. Z6 and Z7)? This may be too costly, but it's one way way to sell more Z9 sensors - so the Z7 is more likely to go stacked first.

All agreed, except I think due to supply chain issues, the Z9 size sensor will remain expensive and in short supply for a while (this year?), and they're scrambling to meet Z9 demand - why put out a Z7 that eats into that?

I think it more likely that a DX sized Z9 sensor (cheaper, plus the research is done) - meaning a Z90 camera - is more likely to will come out first. I speculated "a couple of years" but will more be driven by 1) demand for the Z9, 2) the competition (as you say, Fuji, but also Canon I think), and 3) how much of a Nikon corporate mindset shift there has been in terms of not holding anything back to gain market share as quickly as possible - that last could lead to a 'first to market,' early release of a Z90.

Clearly they went full bore with the Z9. Nikon history says they will wait for a scaled down/cheaper version of it (either Z90 or Z7x), but times have changed, and they might just let it all go for a while, and release the best products they can. I, for one, would rather see them do that for bit :)

Side Note: The new Z camera naming I think is troublesome - their old naming system made good sense (D-single-digit == flagship; D-triple-digit == pro FX; D-quad-digit == consumer PLUS many model numbers to differentiate). There aren't enough single digits to adequately convey differences unless they do something like make the Z1 high end (the high mp camera, instead of the Z8? And they'll never put out a Z2 or Z4). I suppose they could make a Z7x that is shutterless - making a Z7iii or Z7iv that is now shutterless makes less sense to me, although clearly at some point _all_ their cameras will be shutterless.

Cheers!
...Dave...
 
I think that the issue for the DX crowd is weight. The Z-9 is a chunk and the D-850 needs a grip to reach 10 FPS. I think that the semi-pro/enthusiast DX crowd will react only to a Z-9 type camera at D-500 weight. A current D-500/500pf/no grip setup weighs in at less than 5# while a Z-9/500pf or A1/200-600 are 2# heavier. For some that 2# is no big deal so they ordered the Z-9 but there is still a lot of money out there for a lighter Z-9 class camera.
-Tom
 
All agreed, except I think due to supply chain issues, the Z9 size sensor will remain expensive and in short supply for a while (this year?), and they're scrambling to meet Z9 demand - why put out a Z7 that eats into that?

I think it more likely that a DX sized Z9 sensor (cheaper, plus the research is done) - meaning a Z90 camera - is more likely to will come out first. I speculated "a couple of years" but will more be driven by 1) demand for the Z9, 2) the competition (as you say, Fuji, but also Canon I think), and 3) how much of a Nikon corporate mindset shift there has been in terms of not holding anything back to gain market share as quickly as possible - that last could lead to a 'first to market,' early release of a Z90.

Clearly they went full bore with the Z9. Nikon history says they will wait for a scaled down/cheaper version of it (either Z90 or Z7x), but times have changed, and they might just let it all go for a while, and release the best products they can. I, for one, would rather see them do that for bit :)

Side Note: The new Z camera naming I think is troublesome - their old naming system made good sense (D-single-digit == flagship; D-triple-digit == pro FX; D-quad-digit == consumer PLUS many model numbers to differentiate). There aren't enough single digits to adequately convey differences unless they do something like make the Z1 high end (the high mp camera, instead of the Z8? And they'll never put out a Z2 or Z4). I suppose they could make a Z7x that is shutterless - making a Z7iii or Z7iv that is now shutterless makes less sense to me, although clearly at some point _all_ their cameras will be shutterless.

Cheers!
...Dave...
From a marketing strategy standpoint, the halo of the Z9 will extend to other cameras with similar features. They don't need to have the same power and speed - just similar. Even in a perfect world, the high end for sales of a flagship camera was 100,000 units or so for the D3. It's just not enough to drive volume by itself.

Nikon has always had both flagship and enthusiast/volume cameras. There could be sourcing challenges, but ultimately they will be resolved. I don't think the Z9 in any way limits their plans. What they really gain is efficiency with design and engineering by redeploying technology that has already been used.

From a marketing strategy standpoint, once you have an edge you always want to exploit it. I don't think waiting or holding back has any chance of being a successful strategy because the volumes of the Z9 are too small. They also have limited resources, and if you delay one product, it pushed back everything. There are certain time windows for specific product development and introductions. If you miss those windows, you have a D400 type situation where you delay two additional years until the next slot is available.
 
Thanks - of topic but I did my graduate work in Molecular Biology at UCLA in the 1970s.
Interesting! I moved across into genomics circa 2003, benefiting from the emerging automation; but i've stood back from directly engaging in the labwork to get out full blown whole genotyping methods that have become mainstream, mainly to focus on applications of these data to the evolution of biota and landscapes etc....

Back to Nikon....Having slept on the interesting implications raises questions about the ILC market as Robotics emerges as the primary market of these integrated stacked sensors-high speed imaging hardware devices (thus....manufacturing, defense, smart vehicles etc). Compared to the film > digital revolution, what we see in the stacked sensor/shutterless/dual readout solution - the Z9 Moment - represents our first glimpse of new relationship of the ILC System as it is repositioned within the wider imaging industry.

The main difference in this new imaging revolution lies in the benefits for Nikon as it responds to the growth market in design and manufacturing of these robotic imaging solutions. The crux of this new revolution is that making the main components almost purely silicon an imaging company with the leverage to make cameras that are almost solidstate (IBIS and lens mount and are the only mechanical parts).

The know how and solutions to make high end industrial imaging solutions resides in the high speed hardware (stacked sensors and high speed EVFs etc). As we see in the 1" sensor preceding the Z9, this reflects how the core tech can be easily redesigned for the high end prosumer and Pro camera. And, crucially, this is where the propriety ILC System protects the market share of its dedicated optics, which will continue to earn decent margins.

The ILC market has already shrunk over the past decade. It is unlikely to expand beyond the niche market for the primary ILC systems of CaNiSony, which will complement the mass market in smartphones. We photographers are already witnessing, benefitting in fact, from more automated features (machine-learning and faster AF notably) but not much likely changes (well over the next few years at least), in the fundamentals of how we shoot today's MILCs (and in fact many aspects of DSLRs). But most photographers will buy new MILCs, and far less if any new DSLRs.

There are further implications for how innovation will roll forward in the design for the Prosumer / Pro cameras, given these centre around the Sensor-CPU-EVF Complexes. This differential will continue to stand out with rapid innovation in solid state hardware - again driven by demands of robotic applications. These applications demand not only imaging rates at unprecedented speeds but also much wider Dynamic Range to deal with real world lighting challenges etc.

We may well look back on the Z9 Moment as the first photographer's camera to represent this fundamental change in the industry. As already noted, Nikon is just kicking off this revolution: witness its high speed 1" stacked sensor (also high DR) for industrial imaging as well as Nikon's recent investments in robotics etc.
 
i think the fact there are so many dx lenses on the lens roadmap suggests there will be new dx bodies.

but, as you suggest, it's probably a good bet they are aimed at the entry level market

and of course, "when" is a hard question. we can assume at least a couple of years between models targeting a given market segment
Well…they've already got the Z50 and the Zfc…so the only other DX body that might make sense would be something akin to a D500…and it likely wouldn't really be much cheaper than a Z6II or Z7II and unless they build another super duper DX size sensor (or cut the Z9 sensor pixel count and size down) they won't really get much more performance out of it than one already gets with the 6II or 7II…so I really don't see the point of making one for Nikon. We'll probably see minor revisions of the 50 and fc…but I would be surprised if we saw a higher end model…especially as the 6II or 7II is actually lighter and about the same physical size as the D500 is.
 
Will the baby Z9 be a Z90 or a Z 7III. I ask this not for naming but how do you think the Z 6 / Z 7 lines will grown. Is there room between what one would think a Z 7 III would be and a Z 9? Personally I think the baby Z 9 will be the Z 7III at around $3,500-$3,800. Not a lot of space between them.

There could be 60 MP camera without action oriented AF, perhaps a Z 8? Also a Z 50 II with much of the Z 6/Z 7 III AF but in crop body - may be. Speculation is easy, getting it right is much harder.
The 7III makes more sense to me…dropping the Z9 sensor into it and the Expeed 7 then throttling back the capabilities a bit to maintain price point and model separation…that approach doesn't take any R&D cost except for minor changes in capabilities like FPS or whatever. Scaling a Z9 sensor down to FX size is a fairly easy engineering task but would give a 19.5MP sensor and for competitive reasons they probably don't want to go that low…and building a new sensor with smaller pixels to get it to the 21MP of the D500 or even 24 to match some of the other brands along with the R&D necessary to do stacked sensor and all the latest sensor buzzwords/tech even more R&D bucks…and for a relatively small market. The financially efficient decision would be to stay with FF and use the Z9 sensor…which then spreads the R&D cost of that sensor over more units, especially as the FF models are already essentially the same size/weight as the D500…plus the less mechanical parts and more reliable body issues.
 
Nikon already many of the core parts for more high end cameras, including: EXPEED7 processor, Z9 AF and EVF code, CFExpress media is now the new standard. The company has no option but to prioritize high performance cameras at both ends of its Z System: DX (Z90) and FX with high resolution sensors and/or Z9 spec AF. The Z50, Zfc and Z5 are already out in the world to grow up its client base. The question at the crux of Nikon's future cameras is how quickly will they upgrade their "primary core MILCs" to stacked-sensors to handle the Z9 blackout free EVF and AF (i.e. Z6 and Z7)? This may be too costly, but it's one way way to sell more Z9 sensors - so the Z7 is more likely to go stacked first.

The possible stand out features of a Z8 (or whatever it's called) will be to extra high resolution for genres seeking high resolution that otherwise is in Medium format: Studio and Landscape genres. Thus 60mp or more FX sensor possibly extended with pixelshift. It's unclear if this camera requires a stacked sensor if it's also to do 8K and handle the EVF specs etc.

The incentive for the Z90 is the impatience over lack of a D500 "equivalent", and a more affordable MILC for action genres, which can also deliver excellent 4K video. Nikon must have known nd already acted on the future trends for DX MILC's many months ago. Thus Z90 must be an urgent priority, because Fujifilm already has its stacked DX sensor in the X-H2 due in 2022, possibly May.

There are few if any crippling gaps considering the combined F and Z Nikkor lens systems, but at least 3 categories in the Z System are standing out more and more .......glaringly, there's no Tilt-shift, Macro-zoom (70-180), medium telephoto zooms (70-200 f4S, 70-300) - all Z mount.

Last but not least, Nikon has the Z mount, the future on which they are rapidly building their future. Its strategic features no longer holds back their mirrorless system (no dual DX/FX mounts, the architecture is not restrictive etc)

View attachment 31067

In your view is there an optics/physics limit to the the degrees you show in the chart? Is more necessarily better or is more pushing against a physics limit?
 
Just from a marketing point of view, they don't want cameras that reach the same niche competing with each other, so it is probably a balancing act that keeps them up at night.
 
Watch Fuji. Their forthcoming XH2 will probably have a 40mp stacked APS-C sensor sourced from Sony. They are already the second largest camera manufacturer in Japan having passed Sony recently. Sadly, historically their AF is not very good.
 
The 7III makes more sense to me…dropping the Z9 sensor into it and the Expeed 7 then throttling back the capabilities a bit to maintain price point and model separation…that approach doesn't take any R&D cost except for minor changes in capabilities like FPS or whatever. Scaling a Z9 sensor down to FX size is a fairly easy engineering task but would give a 19.5MP sensor and for competitive reasons they probably don't want to go that low…and building a new sensor with smaller pixels to get it to the 21MP of the D500 or even 24 to match some of the other brands along with the R&D necessary to do stacked sensor and all the latest sensor buzzwords/tech even more R&D bucks…and for a relatively small market. The financially efficient decision would be to stay with FF and use the Z9 sensor…which then spreads the R&D cost of that sensor over more units, especially as the FF models are already essentially the same size/weight as the D500…plus the less mechanical parts and more reliable body issues.
I generally agree, but there is some work that would need to be done to optimize it for lower power. You have a smaller battery, lower voltage, and lack of a heat sink in a smaller body. That means you need to throttle back the processor, reduce the frame rate, and reduce write speed at a minimum. I'm not sure how much you would want to slow AF rates if at all, and the EVF needs the same type dual readout and refresh rate. This probably means a serious compromise for 8k video. Still - a 12-14 fps 46 MP camera with a virtually live EVF would be very attractive.

It's possible with a Z6iii you could take the opposite approach and emphasize smaller files, faster frame rates, and fastest focus response. This is an alternative approach to scaling back the Z9 hardware to a Z6iii power and pody level, but you would need a lower resolution sensor with larger photosites - bringing better low light performance. A DX counterpart would likely be very similar to this approach and mean a similar DX sized sensor and AF and display modified for the smaller display.

Most of the users I have talked to have routine shooting of the Z9 at 7-10 fps or less. Several have programmed a function button to immediately go to 20 fps on demand including a full time sports pro. The thought from most is 20 fps is far to many files, and a slower frame rate is much more practical most of the time.

One of the things I've found interesting is there seem to be a number of third party tech companies supplying the intellectual property. Nikon has confirmed a third party is responsible for file compression. I've also heard the AI for Subject focus is a third party for both Nikon and Canon cameras. That accelerates the speed of innovation and implementation.
 
I generally agree, but there is some work that would need to be done to optimize it for lower power. You have a smaller battery, lower voltage, and lack of a heat sink in a smaller body. That means you need to throttle back the processor, reduce the frame rate, and reduce write speed at a minimum. I'm not sure how much you would want to slow AF rates if at all, and the EVF needs the same type dual readout and refresh rate. This probably means a serious compromise for 8k video. Still - a 12-14 fps 46 MP camera with a virtually live EVF would be very attractive.

It's possible with a Z6iii you could take the opposite approach and emphasize smaller files, faster frame rates, and fastest focus response. This is an alternative approach to scaling back the Z9 hardware to a Z6iii power and pody level, but you would need a lower resolution sensor with larger photosites - bringing better low light performance. A DX counterpart would likely be very similar to this approach and mean a similar DX sized sensor and AF and display modified for the smaller display.

Most of the users I have talked to have routine shooting of the Z9 at 7-10 fps or less. Several have programmed a function button to immediately go to 20 fps on demand including a full time sports pro. The thought from most is 20 fps is far to many files, and a slower frame rate is much more practical most of the time.

One of the things I've found interesting is there seem to be a number of third party tech companies supplying the intellectual property. Nikon has confirmed a third party is responsible for file compression. I've also heard the AI for Subject focus is a third party for both Nikon and Canon cameras. That accelerates the speed of innovation and implementation.
The Sony A1 is much lighter than the Z9. It appears that Nikon intentionally went to an integrated grip and large battery as opposed to needing that size/weight for the new tech. Right now, for D-500/500pf users that are willing to pay a 2# penalty to get the new tech, the A1/200-600 seems better than the Z9/500pf/ftz approach.
 
I'm no optical physics guru nor engineer (!), but I've read the flange cannot be much shallower without risking damage to the sensor. Well at least on a ILC with many user applications and lens changes in rough conditions etc. A specialized industrial camera could be built on much tighter tolerances presumably.

The fully electronic shutter removes the need for an accommodation space of a mechanical shutter, which is also rather delicate. And here again in scoping out the Z system, Nikon probably were planning their future sensors to evolve to a fully electronic shutter .

The closer the rear elements sit to the sensor - shorter flange - the better to avoid retrofocus corrections (needed with a OVF with mirror etc) but too close can increase vignetting. Theoretically the lens mount can wider but Z mount has the diameter for the FX sensor to use IBIS (oscillate)


In your view is there an optics/physics limit to the the degrees you show in the chart? Is more necessarily better or is more pushing against a physics limit?
 
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