Nikon's Strategy - Professionals and Hobbyists

[fcotterill]

I thought this topic deserves its own thread, beyond the debates whether to 'Zee or not to Zed' etc.... The next few years, even the next 2 years will present interesting choices for many photographers already seriously invested in the Nikon system.

To quote from Nikon's Presentation of their latest fiscal report for Q2 2020. Projections over 2021 and beyond the big 2020 losses through the ILC market crash and CoV19 (no elaboration need!), Nikon underscores it sees Pros/Hobbyists as the Imaging Division's “rock supporter layer post-COVID-19” for whom they will "focus on high-end models for pro/hobbyist. Differentiate with large mount lenses...". Their beancounters project a 20% increase in revenue from its Mirrorless Lenses, as the market for Nikon changes from a current estimate of 60% to 80+ % of 'Pro/Hobbyist ratio in Nikon Sales'. Actually, one of the timeline charts attributes projected sales recovery to this sector at +90% in 3 years = late 2023 [see slide 25]. This market - that is many of us in this Forum - seems to have been rising in priority since 2016, when 'only' 29% of Nikon sales were to the combined “Pro/Hobbyist” categories. Note the big crash in budget/consumer sales over the past 5 years!

We Nikonians can expect the "....Shift to a structure that secures profits constantly even when revenue drops, through strengthening the business structure and diverting the sales and product mix". They also are cutting back their overseas headcount but aim to not only maintain but grow their domestic staff to execute the shift in product strategy.

It is obvious Nikon is committed more than ever to its stated emphasis on the Z-mount. After all, this is a reliable tactic to increase sales of brand new Z-Nikkors. The exception is those of us with the FTZ continuing with their well cared for F-mount glass + Used F-fit optics. This must be the bulk of not only Hobbyists but also many Professionals. If they aim to shift priorities almost 100% to Z system (already happening, basically), it still follows that our expectations of new F-Nikkors are remote; a FTZd is also not a priority for Nikon, and neither is a D550, as they chase up revenue in Z optics....and mainly FX. However, as with the Z50, the launch of a Z500 for action will lower the entry cost into the Z system.

One can speculate at further length what the future may hold. My sixpence is the rumours of Z Pro MILC should firm up sooner than later, as Nikon has to get out the fully capable mirrorless FX camera(s) for action genres. This demand is especially critical if it is to do full justice to the telephotos besides the 70-200 f2.8S and soon 100-400 S, 200-600 then 400 S and 600 S primes.... Looking beyond the eclipse by smartphones of the halcyon days harvesting slim profit margins off pallets of budget DSLR kits, Nikon R&D has to switch priorities. This switch changes the emphasis all along the company's chain from R&D labs doing research, through to its mass production. Indeed, Nikon has already changed its emphasis - witness the latest designs of Pro telephoto zooms and prioritizing the S line for Z mount; and the company's streamlined factories to switch emphasis to smaller product runs of higher end cameras and lenses aimed at the Pros and Hobbyists. As I read the make up of this now dominant market, the latter are indeed the dominant species of forum poster!?!.

So Nikon has to take us more seriously, but tight operating constraints will limit what products they can prioritize. It does follow, however, that relevance of nature/wildlife photographers has to increase

And also see Thom Hogan's comments on this report he posted this week.

 

[Steve]

Great analysis and I agree 100%. Nikon needs to work on the Z mount and get it at least to the point where their DSLRs are now in terms of performance - preferably beyond that point. I think the last DSLR of interest we'll likely see is the D850 replacement, and I honestly am not sure how much enthusiasm it'll be met with. After that, I think we'll only really see advances in mirrorless and I'm glad to see Nikon taking it seriously.

 

[JANuser]

Downsizing overseas staff means one thing and one thing only, longer wait times for repairs. Last time I sent in a lens for repair it took three months. Will that extend to six months under this new concept? I hope I don’t have to find out.

 

[fcotterill]

Downsizing overseas staff means one thing and one thing only, longer wait times for repairs.

Unfortunately - yes. The alternative is Nikon see the reality to maintain customer relations - ie licences 3rd party technical experts to carry out repairs, and makes the spares available. In the UK, many repairs are done by Fixation in Vauxhall (London) and Nikon UK sends gear to them to repair.
In too many countries, the lack of Support from Nikon and also Marketing are crying out for radical upgrades. Marketing of Nikon products has become a shambolic embarrassment.

 

[gordon_g]

Some interesting stuff here but nothing I didn't see coming honestly.. My hope is that they reevaluate the FTZ adapter and fix the focus lag... because if not I will never be moving off the DSLR's I'm not replacing all the glass I own.. Sorry Nikon that is NEVER happening. I will buy used DSLR until I can't find them.

 

[DavidT]

I agree with the OP. Nikon is smart to switch focus (no pun) to those of us on this forum. The iPhones will continue to chip away consumer camera sales to the point they won't sell any. However an iPhone is never going to replace the level of cameras and lenses we purchase. The sidelines of the NFL are never going to be photographers with phones. I have to imagine Nikon makes a lot more money selling a $6K body and a $12K lens then they would selling a $350 costco special.

I for one really hope Nikon catches up with the animal (not pet) eye AF. That single feature is the only thing that has me looking at other brands. I am holding tight for now but by this time next year if Nikon isn't there I will likely switch and never look back.

 

[Palouse]

I agree with much/most/all of what is being written here. And while I may not be the next big spender, I do follow and support Nikon. I often fear/wonder that perhaps we are at the cusp of forsaking all our hard earned photography skills for technological miracles that, while making better pictures, are turning this into a sport rather than an art or an advocation.
Don't get me wrong—I love my tech when it compensates for my age-related limitations

 

[JAS]

Thorough, thoughful analysis. Let’s see how they can execute. The naysayers are everywhere and there are many wonderfulk cameras available to suit anyone’s needs. I am about $25K into Nikon gear and not very interested in swwitching because the move cost would be ridiculously wasteful.

I truly love my D750, Z6 and IR Converted D600 for above water work. I will have a DSLR for some time so I can continue to use a few older D lenses in auto focus mode (70-180mm f/4.5-5.6 Micro is an amzing lens). Thoug, as steve has pointed out, I sould also give it a try on manual focus with focus peaking!

I do love the Z6 and plan to buy at least the 70-200 f/2.8 to go with my 24-70mm f/4 and 85mm f/1.8. There may be another long telephoto addition down the line or adding a D780 when I retire next year. I, however, have bear paw size hands and the Z6 is at the small end of what I can comfortably use, which is in conflict with my advanicing age (69). Also physical limitations (neuromuscular issues) limit my interest in high MP bodies because I cannot hold them steady band am not a fan of hiking with a tripod, though monopods help.

So, for now the combo I have works for me and it looks like Nikon cares about me! Fun times ahead.

 

[fcotterill]

On a pedantic note, what Nikon HQ terms Hobbyists in this fiscal report presumably equates to the Enthusiast in the ILC categories of Nikon USA and other regions. These photographers must collectively have upgraded their cameras even more frequently than some professionals, and also bought a lens (and more) too many ! Some enthusiasts shoot mainly on their travels (especially if retired) or on work trips. Landscape shooters must feature prominently in the latter in addition to the dedicated chasers of scenes. Then there are those who invest in a Nikon system to record events of their family and friends etc.

It is likely the larger proportion - and by far - who enjoy photographing wildlife do not earn enough from selling on the resulting images, but they are deeply committed to this genre. Such that a few might even be tempted to sell off a granny or whoever (throwing in the odd in-law as bonus) to afford an exotic telephoto and more!

Nikon have awoken to the buying power of this collective of genres. Presumably their strategic analyses of their sales and marketing data is far more reliable (compared against the dysfunctional shambles of their corporate websites ). In contrast, their data on Pros must be a doddle to quantify - using NPS. It is impossible to begin to guess at the composition by age/income bracket etc of enthusiast genres across regions and continents (eg flower and bird photography seem popular in Japan and Taiwan), wildlife photography and also landscape are significant in southern Africa, and also Western Europe.

It would also be very silly of Nikon's strategists to ignore macrophotography, which the better MILC systems facilitate immensely with focus-peaking et al. So when will we see that decades overdue upgrade of the 70-180 hey Nikon? Nudge, Nudge, wink, wink....

 

[MartyD]

Photography has been one of my hobbies for almost 50 years. It is never going to be something that I will make much money at and the only way I will every own a $12,000 lens is if I win one in a raffle. I have owned a number of Nikon bodies and lenses with my first Nikon being a Nikkormat FT2. I had a darkroom for many years and processed a ton of TriXPan film. There were times when I had money to spend on my photography hobby and times when I didn't. Now, being retired, I have more time and money to spend on photography than I ever have. What I started 50 years ago has brought me to this point. I say all of this for one reason! Who is going to replace me? Is the photography hobby of today's youth going to create a demand for the type of equipment we demand now? Are we a dying breed? We know that the demand for high end cameras is declining, but is the whole landscape of still photography changing?

The Z series cameras have been interesting. I love my Z6 and I do not regret purchasing it one bit. I know that Nikon has probably done a ton of research on who is purchasing the Z series but I sometimes feel that they are not fully recognizing the demands of the DSLR/MILC photographers. If the original Z series or the current ZII cameras for that matter, had been $500-$1000 more expensive from the start, but had better performance would it have changed sales or profit that much. Is Nikon not capable of producing a better Z camera yet or did they believe the price point of such a camera was beyond what consumers will pay.

I am also waiting for some sort of significant break from tradition or some innovative way to provide the cameras we each want to buy. The users of this forum are wishing for better AF performance, and those in the video forums want more video performance. It would be great if you could build a camera like you build a computer, choose a sensor, add a high performance AF, up the FPS, add better video, or not, it's up to your needs as a user. You would build and buy a Z camera to your own specs. When you realize you need more pixels just send it in for a new sensor. Maybe that is unrealistic, but I think to address the needs of the demanding photographers willing to spend the money on high end cameras it will take something creative. Maybe it's not possible, maybe it is, who knows, but it would be cool.