Z Roadmap 20Sept 2022, Nikon brochures

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Darrellhar

Well-known member
I reckon the 200-600 will be a tamron lens
I don't believe that for a second. It has been on the road map the longest and they just recently started releasing Tamron rebrands. I wonder if Nikon had to retool their 200-600 to get around patents or some other reason. If it was a Tamron rebrand it would have been released already because they know they are going to sell a ton of them.
 

EricBowles

Moderator
Supporting Member
I don't believe that for a second. It has been on the road map the longest and they just recently started releasing Tamron rebrands. I wonder if Nikon had to retool their 200-600 to get around patents or some other reason. If it was a Tamron rebrand it would have been released already because they know they are going to sell a ton of them.
That's correct - it is unlikely to be produced by Tamron. Tamron is largely rebadging existing lenses with Nikon Z compatibility. The 200-600 is not an S lens, and as such it needs to be released by Nikon when there is an enthusiast action camera - not just the Z9 flagship.
 

vulpess

Member
Additionally, a Tamron 200-600 doesn't even exist. They have a 150-500 for Sony E mount which could be made for Z as well, but the lens outline we have seen on the teaser images/roadmap is quite a bit bigger. I would be quoite certain that it will be a Nikon design similar to Sony 200-600.
 

philippe

Active member
I don't believe that for a second. It has been on the road map the longest and they just recently started releasing Tamron rebrands. I wonder if Nikon had to retool their 200-600 to get around patents or some other reason. If it was a Tamron rebrand it would have been released already because they know they are going to sell a ton of them
I did say "I reckon" - it was speculation rather than an assertion of fact. Why do I reckon this:
1.the lens has been on the roadmap for a long time and nikon has not prioritised it despite its earning potential;
2. Nikon has prioritised other lenses that address a similar range (the 100-400, the 400 f4.5, the 400 f2.8). Yes, the last is not on the same class I know, but the fact is, the 200-600 is low hanging fruit which Nikon has continued to choose not to pick and sell a ton of.
3. Things have changed since the roadmap was released. Maybe with the flood of orders for the lenses above (and the 800mm) and the shortage of components and the lack of production capacity, Nikon may reconsider farming this out to tamron who have considerable experience in the consumer telezoom department.
Just speculation.
 

Darrellhar

Well-known member
I did say "I reckon" - it was speculation rather than an assertion of fact. Why do I reckon this:
1.the lens has been on the roadmap for a long time and nikon has not prioritised it despite its earning potential;
2. Nikon has prioritised other lenses that address a similar range (the 100-400, the 400 f4.5, the 400 f2.8). Yes, the last is not on the same class I know, but the fact is, the 200-600 is low hanging fruit which Nikon has continued to choose not to pick and sell a ton of.
3. Things have changed since the roadmap was released. Maybe with the flood of orders for the lenses above (and the 800mm) and the shortage of components and the lack of production capacity, Nikon may reconsider farming this out to tamron who have considerable experience in the consumer telezoom department.
Just speculation.
Philippe, at this point we are all speculating. I wasn't trying to attack you or your thoughts and I hope it didn't come across that way. Nikon has its reasons we just have no idea what they are. It could be production issues, it could be timing that they want to keep like releasing it with a camera or another lens (Nikon can be very stubborn in that regard).
I'm speculating as well but I don't believe Nikon would farm out one of their designs to another manufacturer. The two rebranded lens were "Tamron designs" just tweaked slightly for Z mount and labeled Nikon. In my mind those are two very different things.
A lot of us feel the 200-600 is low hanging fruit or potential huge seller and are scratching our heads why they have not released it yet. I really wish I knew the answer as to why it hasn't been released yet. I will be a first day ordered of it and I rarely do that for camera gear. I just don't in my mind believe it has anything to do with Tamron.
 

EricBowles

Moderator
Supporting Member
Philippe, at this point we are all speculating. I wasn't trying to attack you or your thoughts and I hope it didn't come across that way. Nikon has its reasons we just have no idea what they are. It could be production issues, it could be timing that they want to keep like releasing it with a camera or another lens (Nikon can be very stubborn in that regard).
I'm speculating as well but I don't believe Nikon would farm out one of their designs to another manufacturer. The two rebranded lens were "Tamron designs" just tweaked slightly for Z mount and labeled Nikon. In my mind those are two very different things.
A lot of us feel the 200-600 is low hanging fruit or potential huge seller and are scratching our heads why they have not released it yet. I really wish I knew the answer as to why it hasn't been released yet. I will be a first day ordered of it and I rarely do that for camera gear. I just don't in my mind believe it has anything to do with Tamron.
Nikon has been very thoughtful about when they release lenses and cameras. The reason the 200-600 has not been released yet is simple - it's a wildlife/sports lens that needs an action camera. It's also a high volume enthusiast lens, so the Z9 is not the target market. I can't speak to the camera that is upcoming, but the expectation is an enthusiast version of the Z9 - and that is supported in their financial projections with volume increases. Nikon does not release stand alone products with obvious gaps in the kit that is used with those products. So releasing a 200-600 without that camera is out of the question. Cameras are planned 2-3 years out. There was a window with the Z7ii two years ago, but I think it was clear the camera was not a strong action camera like the expected next release.

Camera releases are typically late summer or early fall for enthusiast cameras.
 

philippe

Active member
Philippe, at this point we are all speculating. I wasn't trying to attack you or your thoughts and I hope it didn't come across that way. Nikon has its reasons we just have no idea what they are. It could be production issues, it could be timing that they want to keep like releasing it with a camera or another lens (Nikon can be very stubborn in that regard).
I'm speculating as well but I don't believe Nikon would farm out one of their designs to another manufacturer. The two rebranded lens were "Tamron designs" just tweaked slightly for Z mount and labeled Nikon. In my mind those are two very different things.
A lot of us feel the 200-600 is low hanging fruit or potential huge seller and are scratching our heads why they have not released it yet. I really wish I knew the answer as to why it hasn't been released yet. I will be a first day ordered of it and I rarely do that for camera gear. I just don't in my mind believe it has anything to do with Tamron.
Well, given the state of the world, a camera lens should be the least of our concerns.
 

fcotterill

Well-known member
Supporting Member
Thread starter
I agree a relatively affordable 200-600 in Z mount will elicit yet more frustrations IF it's released before a "Action" MILC. Thus, this pair will analogous to the 200-500 f5.6E which has gained considerable traction with a D500 (January 2016) and then the D850 (July 2017).

A DX Z90 and/or FX Z6 / Z7 III are essential in their price zones - to pair with more affordable lenses. These are the cameras, which Nikon has stated are planned (in their 2022 IR Report).
 

Tom Reynolds

Well-known member
I think that the "enthusiast" market is one where Nikon needs two new products. The competition has:

1-Sony A1/200-600. The camera is very expensive but excellent. The lens is reasonably priced. Weight is 7# which is 1.5# heavier than a D-500/500pf but about the same as a D-500/200-500. The equivalent FF is 600mm which I considered a bit short.

2-Canon has the 100-500 which paired with a R7 produce a great setup @ 5#. The cost for a R7/100-500 is about $5400. Canon crop is 1.6 so the FF 800mm which I considered optimum.

3-Fuji has the XF2S and a 150-600 lens that weighs about what a D-500/500Pf goes for about $4400. I could find little information about this combo, so I passed on evaluating it but with an APS C sensor of 26MP it appeared ideal.

4-Olympus has the OM-1 which with a 100-400 lens weighs in at less than 4.5# @ about $3700. Sub the 300F4 and the cost is $4200, weight is 5#. The 2.0 crop yields 800mm FF equivalent with the 100-400 and 600MM FF equ with the 300f4. A small, lightweight 1.4 TC works well on the F4 bringing the FF equ to 840mm @ F/5.6

(This is the analysis I did when I decided I needed the flexibility of the zoom. Absent the need for flexibility, I would still be shooting my D-500/500pf. The second criteria was: weight. As many have stated, in evaluating competing camera systems, the first analysis should be about you.)

Assuming that the Canon R7/100-500 is the primary competition, Nikon needs to deliver an equivalent camera/lens combo in the same price/weight ballpark. The weight and cost of the R7/100-500 combination is in the lens. It is $3800 and weighs 3.5# with the lens collar/foot attached. It is a Canon PRO lens. The Canon R7 is not a BSI stacked sensor but will shoot electronically @ 30 f/s, has subject identification and pre-capture. I do not expect Nikon to do this

More Likely, Nikon could deliver a better sensor with similar specs and weight and charge about $700 more. Many Canon shooters wanted the upgraded BSI sensor in the R7 and were willing to pay a higher price. This is what I expect Nikon to do.

The question is should the camera be a light-weight Z camera, FF replacement or an APS-C replacement? A FF replacement is interesting because the canon R5 is $3900 and weighs slightly over 5# with the 100-500. Further, adding a TC partially defeats the zooming ability.

Essentially, Nikon's marketing decision boils down to which way they want to go.

I do not think that Nikon can or wants to compete with the 4/3 product line and believes that Fujifilm is to much a point off the curve.

Tom
 

DRM

Member
I agree that the 400 f/4.5 would pair excellently with the mythical Z 90. And if Nikon isn’t going to next release a nongripped stacked sensor full frame Z body for less than the Z9, then I hope they do release a stacked sensor Z 90 next. But people need to stop dreaming. There is no way a stacked sensor Z 90 would be released at $1800 USD as stated it should be in the Vahagraphy video. No way.

I was one of the prerelease fools persuaded that the 400 f/4.5 was going to be released at a lower price than it was. When it was announced at $3250 I scoffed and balked and ridiculously concluded, since it was now overpriced in my mind, that it would bring me no real benefit. Thankfully I was open enough to keep looking at it in the subsequent months, because a second after I looked through the EVF with it attached, I knew the the 100-400 S was going up for sale.

For all of the performance benefits the mythical Z 90 would give as a stacked sensor Nikon mirrorless camera, it would easily justify $2500. Probably even more than that.
 

ajm057

Well-known member
Supporting Member
Is a 600MM equivalent prime the optimum lens?

I think there is a debate about this.

Tom

A Z-600mm f/4.0 TC S-line would be optimal for photographing big cats in Africa, provided one also has the 400/2.8TC for lions before sunrise and dusk. Over 65% of my shots taken over 16 weeks on safari were with a 600/4.0 and 1/3rd were with a TC on board. Having a lighter lense than my E-FL and with in internal TC just makes life easier and reduces the risk of dust getting onto the sensor. BUT you also have to have easy to reach shorter focal lengths to hand. Hence why a 400+600 combination has been my favorite combination. Sometimes with a 70-200/2.8 on a 3rd slower body -- D850 or Z7.
 

Tom Reynolds

Well-known member
A Z-600mm f/4.0 TC S-line would be optimal for photographing big cats in Africa, provided one also has the 400/2.8TC for lions before sunrise and dusk. Over 65% of my shots taken over 16 weeks on safari were with a 600/4.0 and 1/3rd were with a TC on board. Having a lighter lense than my E-FL and with in internal TC just makes life easier and reduces the risk of dust getting onto the sensor. BUT you also have to have easy to reach shorter focal lengths to hand. Hence why a 400+600 combination has been my favorite combination. Sometimes with a 70-200/2.8 on a 3rd slower body -- D850 or Z7.
What you are saying is that 43% of your shots were taken with a 600mm with no TC and 23% were taken with 840mm equ reach (600mm+1.4TC). The other 35% needed a shorter lens.

Question1: Is that correct?
Question2: You can carry 1 lens, a 600mm or a 200-800mm zoom. Which would you take?
 

Calson

Well-known member
With the parts problems Nikon cannot even provide replacement parts for its pro lenses. It is not business as usual and even in the best of times a new lens or camera was often announced 6-10 months before it actually would ship and then it would take another 4 months to have the item available to order and have it ship out.

With its expensive 800mm PF and 400mm f/2.8 S lenses Nikon has stopped accepting new orders from their U.S. dealers as they cannot fill current orders for these lenses.
 

ajm057

Well-known member
Supporting Member
With its expensive 800mm PF and 400mm f/2.8 S lenses Nikon has stopped accepting new orders from their U.S. dealers as they cannot fill current orders for these lenses.

AND yet some of us have had both since April -- so this smug S_B could not be more happy with has I have in the Z-line-up. So much so that earlier this week I sold the last 35 f-mount items in my collection and now am 100% Z-mount for wildlife, action and general shooting where I need to be quick. I am also Hassi X2D shooter for landscape, portrait and studio where slower and higher resolution/dynamic range is vital - I received mine 2 weeks after it was launched, but they too are suffering supply chain issues.
 
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arbitrage

Well-known member
Nikon has been very thoughtful about when they release lenses and cameras. The reason the 200-600 has not been released yet is simple - it's a wildlife/sports lens that needs an action camera. It's also a high volume enthusiast lens, so the Z9 is not the target market. I can't speak to the camera that is upcoming, but the expectation is an enthusiast version of the Z9 - and that is supported in their financial projections with volume increases. Nikon does not release stand alone products with obvious gaps in the kit that is used with those products. So releasing a 200-600 without that camera is out of the question. Cameras are planned 2-3 years out. There was a window with the Z7ii two years ago, but I think it was clear the camera was not a strong action camera like the expected next release.

Camera releases are typically late summer or early fall for enthusiast cameras.
Every one of my friends has Sony 200-600....guess what body they all have....A1...more expensive than Z9. So I don't buy that as a reason at all. If it is Nikon's reason they need new management.
 

EricBowles

Moderator
Supporting Member
Every one of my friends has Sony 200-600....guess what body they all have....A1...more expensive than Z9. So I don't buy that as a reason at all. If it is Nikon's reason they need new management.
How many long lenses do Sony A1 owners have to choose from? Then look at the pro sports and wildlife photographers who have the 400 and/or 600. Don't A9 and A7riv owners also have the 200-600 lens?

I'm not saying Z9 owners would not buy it - just that the target market is much broader than that segment. The Z9 is 7% of unit sales of camera bodies. Even looking at just Nikon mirrorless, the Z9 only 20% of camera bodies sold. That's great for a flagship body - but not for enthusiasts. For camera companies, flagship bodies are the place for cutting edge performance and innovation - not what you build your business on. You need enthusiast camera bodies for volume.
 

Calson

Well-known member
Nikon chose with the 800mm PF and 400mm f/2.8 to produce exceptional lenses for the high end of the market and they succeeded, maybe too well. The 200-600mm as with the Nikon 200-500mm and the various 150-600mm lenses is for the middle market and will need to be produced in far higher volumes and need a great many more components. With chip and other parts shortages Nikon chose to use what they had with low volume but expensive lenses. One 400mm f/2.8 generates as much revenue as seven 200-600mm zoom lenses. I was surprised that my NPS order for the 400mm f/4.5 was filled in only a few days so Nikon did ramp up production of this lens.

My landscape lens collection is 100% f-mount and that is not going to change. No gain with S mount lenses overall and no tilt shift lenses on the Nikon road map. What I do miss is my 200mm f/4 macro lens and no extension tube or bellows options.
 

RichF

Well-known member
Supporting Member
A Z-600mm f/4.0 TC S-line would be optimal for photographing big cats in Africa, provided one also has the 400/2.8TC for lions before sunrise and dusk. Over 65% of my shots taken over 16 weeks on safari were with a 600/4.0 and 1/3rd were with a TC on board. Having a lighter lense than my E-FL and with in internal TC just makes life easier and reduces the risk of dust getting onto the sensor. BUT you also have to have easy to reach shorter focal lengths to hand. Hence why a 400+600 combination has been my favorite combination. Sometimes with a 70-200/2.8 on a 3rd slower body -- D850 or Z7.
that is one heavy bag. I am reaching an age where weight is a consideration. THat is why I am hoping for Z 200-400 F/4 TC. I'll loose a bit of range and a stop but at least I can carry it
 

sid_19911991

Well-known member
The number of people, like me, lusting for the 200-600 must be humongous! I reckon to order on the announcement day, you’d be lucky to get it in 2024. 🫣

I think it is a deliberate strategy to not cannibalize the sales of 100-400, 400 f4.5, & 800 6.3.

If the Nikon 200-600 turns out to be a constant f5.6, with internal zoom, and as sharp the Sony 200-600 but with slightly better out of focus areas rendering...I think it would have surely cannibalized the sales of the telephoto models.

I think most wildlife users are able to afford 1 telephoto lens as opposed to multiple ones despite significant benefits. In such a scenario, I think a well made Nikon 200-600 would be the best all-rounder & compromise.
 
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