2024 - Camera parity, what's next?

[Brian L]

So what's the next COMPELLING change in interchangeable lens cameras? AI, seamless media interfaces, better ergonomics and operation ........ ??? What? I expect refinements and improvements but not likely the major changes of the past decade. It kinda reminds me now of the never ending quest for the perfect golf club or ball in my former addiction/hobby.

With the z6iii now out, the inevitable comparison questions and speculation about next generation cameras seems to be a common theme of this forum - and I'm sure others I'm unaware of.

To me, what's interesting today is more the degree of parity than the differences between the major brands - and the lesser ones: Canon, Sony, Nikon, Fuji, OM, Panasonic. When I started this hobby of mine in late 2019, Sony was light years ahead in the mirrorless world and clearly demonstrated the superiority of mirrorless tech over the ubiquitous DSLRs of the time. Canon and Nikon were late to the game (and in denial) and in frantic catch-up mode. Their early mirrorless offerings were less than stellar - my Z6ii couldn't keep up with a BIF if its life depended on it, while my D850 (or someone elses's D500) continued to reliably nail shot after shot as an example.

However, its pretty clear to me that Canon and Nikon have caught up to Sony, Fuji is fast approaching and the M43 brands are exceling in other areas - like weight/portablility and computational photography. In the past 10 years, mirrorless, AI focusing detection and ever higher resolution were the technological step changes in cameras - everything else, from stacked sensors to deeper buffers to faster processing chips to bright, high res, lightning refresh EVFs and screens, even the global shutter, seem ancillary.

I'm very happy with my Z8 and have totally lost any brand envy I had before it came out. I don't need more megapixels to stall my aging computer, I don't need faster frame rates (culling from hundreds of near identical shots is an exercise in boredom) and the AF rarely disappoints me. I might spring for a mythical 30mp, 50 fps raw shooting Z500 as a second, more far reaching B&W camera but going forward for the foreseeable future my purchases will likely be the odd lens.

For reference I continue to happily use an iPhone 7 and won't be buying new until the battery fails. The new iphones, eight, ten or whatever generations later have nothing terribly compelling to merit a change.

 

[jeffnles1]

Interesting question, Brian.
I worked in the tech industry for 30 years of my 36 year professional career. Over that time the cycle I witnessed was something like this:
Parity > Disruptive innovation >> Competition catching up > Perfecting / building upon new innovation > Parity > Disruptive innovation.

In cameras over the past 30 years or so, I've seen the same progression timeline.
Film Camera Parity > Digital disruptive innovation > Camera companies rolling out digital cameras > Parity with not a lot of differentiation > Mirrorless digital > a slew of new mirrorless > Perfection / building new features with mirrorless >. What will be the next disruptive innovation? I'm sure someone somewhere is working on it or perhaps some kid in his / her mom's garage is working on it now and one of the major companies will buy his innovation and turn it into a marketable product.

 

[Brian L]

Interesting question, Brian.
I worked in the tech industry for 30 years of my 36 year professional career. Over that time the cycle I witnessed was something like this:
Parity > Disruptive innovation >> Competition catching up > Perfecting / building upon new innovation > Parity > Disruptive innovation.

In cameras over the past 30 years or so, I've seen the same progression timeline.
Film Camera Parity > Digital disruptive innovation > Camera companies rolling out digital cameras > Parity with not a lot of differentiation > Mirrorless digital > a slew of new mirrorless > Perfection / building new features with mirrorless >. What will be the next disruptive innovation? I'm sure someone somewhere is working on it or perhaps some kid in his / her mom's garage is working on it now and one of the major companies will buy his innovation and turn it into a marketable product.

I agree with you, Jeff. The exact same pattern exists in my former industry: oil and gas exploration, extraction and production. Even though its considered to be an anti-tech dinosaur. Thanks to step changes in technology, we are extracting more fluids from rocks than ever before.

 

[John Navitsky]

i think we’ll see a couple of improvements in subject detection in jumps. i’m guessing the next gen a1, maybe r1, then z9ii will give us noticeable advancements. and then another round in a couple of years. maybe that next round will let you train your camera for specific subjects

but what i think we’ll see is competition on features. right now cameras features are still more or less like they’ve always been apart from subject detection. but i think we’ll start to see features that take advantage of the cameras knowledge of the subject, like exposure based on the subject.

similar to subject driven features i think we’ll see features based on the speed of the new cameras. i think pre/post capture will basically become normal and really dialed in. i think we’ll see things like enhanced dynamic range by capturing two images and combining them (at least for nikon), but also other things like shutter speed bracketing where the camera takes multiple fast shots and combines them into what is an effectively slower exposure (higher quality) and the computation figures our where motion blur begins and stops just short of it.

and i think we’ll start to see them compete on programmability and customability of the subject detection, af and other aspects. basically program your camera to do what you want it for your specific use case.

 

[jeffnles1]

i think we’ll see a couple of improvements in subject detection in jumps. i’m guessing the next gen a1, maybe r1, then z9ii will give us noticeable advancements. and then another round in a couple of years. maybe that next round will let you train your camera for specific subjects

but what i think we’ll see is competition on features. right now cameras features are still more or less like they’ve always been apart from subject detection. but i think we’ll start to see features that take advantage of the cameras knowledge of the subject, like exposure based on the subject.

similar to subject driven features i think we’ll see features based on the speed of the new cameras. i think pre/post capture will basically become normal and really dialed in. i think we’ll see things like enhanced dynamic range by capturing two images and combining them (at least for nikon), but also other things like shutter speed bracketing where the camera takes multiple fast shots and combines them into what is an effectively slower exposure (higher quality) and the computation figures our where motion blur begins and stops just short of it.

and i think we’ll start to see them compete on programmability and customability of the subject detection, af and other aspects. basically program your camera to do what you want it for your specific use case.

With lower cost, high capacity lightning fast digital storage like NVMe, I think a future development will be built in / on board storage eliminating the need for cards and card slots. Also, SoC technology like the Apple M series chips and the high end Intel CoreUltra combined with on-board digital storage will make discussion about things like buffer size, time to offload buffer to memory cards, etc. be things of the past. Combine with faster readout sensors and even discussions about frame rate will become more of an academic conversation than a real world practicality based discussion. Heck, the Z6iii comes pretty close to turning the buffer size debate into a theoretical discussion more than a real world practical discussion for photographers.

We are currently in that nearing parity stage but some disruptive tech is coming, we just don't know what it is yet.

Jeff

 

[EricBowles]

I'm expecting several areas of advancement:

• Subject Detection - For high end video, I've heard about sports cameras that can follow a specific player number based on the number and color of the jersey. I expect we'll see a lot of ongoing incremental improvement with subject detection and subject recognition.
• Subject identification - Already available in binoculars is a feature that provides the ability to capture an image and provide identification of the subject. It's being used for birding and the database behind it is Cornell's Merlin Photo ID. I expect we'll see the image captioned or titled with the bird common name and scientific name being added to the metadata. I expect we'll also see that applied to people and other subject matter.
• Voice to text - We already have a voice memo field in the Z6iii, Z9 and other cameras. I expect to see that expanded to provide text from spoken word into the metadata. This would be a big benefit for press photographers.
• Camera speed - all the camera companies, sensor companies, processor companies, and memory card companies are striving for faster products and faster cameras. We're seeing high frame rates for stills and video. But the other side of that is rather than faster frame rates, you can have larger files with more data in the same time or less. Take what we have today and double it. We're going to see speed of components driven by much larger markets than cameras. At the same time, faster processing may require new methods of thermal management so that will be a limiting factor but part of the evolution.
• Battery life - While it's old school, all these electronics depend on batteries. We'll see advances on two fronts - more energy efficient cameras and development of batteries with more capacity and/or higher peak power. Related to batteries is heat management and increased power efficiency from the cameras and components.
• Software - some of these features may involve integration with third party software. For example, an easy win would be for Lightroom to license Merlin Photo ID. I'd pay extra for that feature and simply let Lightroom identify my subject and provide captions.
• Software apps - camera companies make all kinds of compromises with the way they tune a camera for general use. Why not provide expanded custom banks and settings as well as firmware optimization based on genre? If I want to accept a full buffer in exchange for pre-release Raw with full size 14 bit files, let me have that option. Let me have extended dynamic range or astrophotography settings. Let me buy a sports pack, a bird pack, a wildlife pack, or a wedding pack and use it to get more out of my camera. I might pay $100 for Bird ID and Pre-Release Raw along with advanced subject recognition and some tradeoffs. Instead of Firmware 2.1, let me get Bird Firmware 2.1 and Landscape Firmware 3.2 - then install the one that matches my photo needs.

 

[John Navitsky]

With lower cost, high capacity lightning fast digital storage like NVMe,

i for one can’t wait till SATA and current speed USB is in our rear view mirror

 

[TurtleCat]

I suspect that cameras within 5 years will be virtually the same as now just as cameras from 5 years ago are virtually the same in key areas. The sensor has basically been at the same level for a decade now. All the improvements have been in areas outside of it. I think the big innovations that would “change everything” have been hinted at before but who knows if/when it’ll happen:

1. organic sensors in wide adoption
2. bendable sensors that can change curves to match the lens to create even sharpness across the frame
3. optic advances to dramatically reduce the number and weight of the elements needed
4. extendable sdk ala an App Store of some variety

Other things will be more incremental advances and easier to expect and predict:
1. improved noise handling
2. better use of gain
3. improved machine learning in various ways
4. improved power usage
5. improved delivery of images
6. automated ways of identifying the best images (related to 3)

 

[Mal Paso]

Getting rid of Glass. Using energy fields to manipulate light and having the focusing of light built into the camera.

Well maybe not next year.

 

[hef19898]

Ah, holographic lenses! All the filters, all the focus pengths and the apertures in one, small package! In two to five years maybe? Or is it 10?

 

[AlanB313]

I'm expecting several areas of advancement:

• Subject Detection - For high end video, I've heard about sports cameras that can follow a specific player number based on the number and color of the jersey. I expect we'll see a lot of ongoing incremental improvement with subject detection and subject recognition.
• Subject identification - Already available in binoculars is a feature that provides the ability to capture an image and provide identification of the subject. It's being used for birding and the database behind it is Cornell's Merlin Photo ID. I expect we'll see the image captioned or titled with the bird common name and scientific name being added to the metadata. I expect we'll also see that applied to people and other subject matter.
• Voice to text - We already have a voice memo field in the Z6iii, Z9 and other cameras. I expect to see that expanded to provide text from spoken word into the metadata. This would be a big benefit for press photographers.
• Camera speed - all the camera companies, sensor companies, processor companies, and memory card companies are striving for faster products and faster cameras. We're seeing high frame rates for stills and video. But the other side of that is rather than faster frame rates, you can have larger files with more data in the same time or less. Take what we have today and double it. We're going to see speed of components driven by much larger markets than cameras. At the same time, faster processing may require new methods of thermal management so that will be a limiting factor but part of the evolution.
• Battery life - While it's old school, all these electronics depend on batteries. We'll see advances on two fronts - more energy efficient cameras and development of batteries with more capacity and/or higher peak power. Related to batteries is heat management and increased power efficiency from the cameras and components.
• Software - some of these features may involve integration with third party software. For example, an easy win would be for Lightroom to license Merlin Photo ID. I'd pay extra for that feature and simply let Lightroom identify my subject and provide captions.
• Software apps - camera companies make all kinds of compromises with the way they tune a camera for general use. Why not provide expanded custom banks and settings as well as firmware optimization based on genre? If I want to accept a full buffer in exchange for pre-release Raw with full size 14 bit files, let me have that option. Let me have extended dynamic range or astrophotography settings. Let me buy a sports pack, a bird pack, a wildlife pack, or a wedding pack and use it to get more out of my camera. I might pay $100 for Bird ID and Pre-Release Raw along with advanced subject recognition and some tradeoffs. Instead of Firmware 2.1, let me get Bird Firmware 2.1 and Landscape Firmware 3.2 - then install the one that matches my photo needs.

I think you are correct on the software side because there's opportunity for monetization of software apps such as you described. But I imagine they may be subscription based. That seems to be where everyone else is heading. Nikon doesn't charge us for firmware upgrades for now. But perhaps they might for FW that has a target audience.

The quality of some of the features like Merlin will improve. There is a lot of complexity to plumage with different molt cycles, etc. Also, in order for these apps to work well, the camera will need to know where it is. Hopefully Nikon and others will add GPS functionality to many more of their cameras. It's a pet peeve of mine that very few Nikon cameras have it. I think D6, d5300, Z9 and the Coolpix series is what I can think of. I know that a lot of folks sync with their phones but I have not had good luck. It's just one more thing to fiddle with instead of taking photos. I'd prefer GPS to be in camera.

I'd actually like Nikon to enable GPS tracking on downloadable topographic maps, with every photo geotagged and referenced. But that would require much better battery technology.

 

[Chris K]

Computational photography is next.

Phones are using it to significantly outpace mirrorless cameras in some areas. Olympus has some limited functionality already. We'll get things like:

• Focus stacking
• Multiframe noise reduction
• Sweep pano stitching, but not awful like today's cameras
• Automatic multiframe HDR
• "Live" photos to get pre-capture functionality after-the-shot
• Subject detection-based fill light
• Enhanced/increased background blur (ie: turn your f/5.6 zoom into a simulated Plena)

Basically, an iPhone brain in a Z9 body.

Whoever gets here first is going to have an advantage considerably larger than Sony's was for subject detection AF.

 

[Robert S]

I'm waiting for full immersion photography. Using goggles I will lie in bed and not only record the visual image but Everything else; smells the water of the Orinoco cooling my feet as the Desert sun beats down on my forehead etc etc.

 

[Calson]

My first Nikon camera was purchased in 1988 and in the following years if there was a gain in performance it always required buying new cameras. With the Z9 there have been great performance upgrades and enhancements and new capabilities provided with firmware updates at no cost to the customer.

 

[EricKlees]

I really see better AF and Subject Detection and better noise performance for high MP sensors like 45-60MP sensors. The noise performance may actually come to the global shutters (at 24MP but also the high MP sensors that doesn't appear capable yet). I think that is where a lot of the R&D will be after better AF and Subject Detection.

Oh and better and much more seamless Pre-Capture. Raw 60-120fps with no limitations

 

[David Berry]

I really see better AF and Subject Detection and better noise performance for high MP sensors like 45-60MP sensors. The noise performance may actually come to the global shutters (at 24MP but also the high MP sensors that doesn't appear capable yet). I think that is where a lot of the R&D will be after better AF and Subject Detection.

Oh and better and much more seamless Pre-Capture. Raw 60-120fps with no limitations

That's close enough to my list of 'improvements' for the mark 2 version of my camera. (Arriving soon? Q3 this year, hopefully.)

 

[SilverSurfer]

I'd just like my camera to do what my cheap phone does and take a panorama in one shot, rather than stitching things together afterwards. I'm sure there are good reasons for it, but its a pain to do it with my Nikon or Canon, so I just usually use my phone.

 

[EricBowles]

Computational photography is next.

Phones are using it to significantly outpace mirrorless cameras in some areas. Olympus has some limited functionality already. We'll get things like:

• Focus stacking
• Multiframe noise reduction
• Sweep pano stitching, but not awful like today's cameras
• Automatic multiframe HDR
• "Live" photos to get pre-capture functionality after-the-shot
• Subject detection-based fill light
• Enhanced/increased background blur (ie: turn your f/5.6 zoom into a simulated Plena)

Basically, an iPhone brain in a Z9 body.

Whoever gets here first is going to have an advantage considerably larger than Sony's was for subject detection AF.

I agree with the idea, but wonder if a camera is the right place for that software. Nikon, Canon and Sony have taken the approach that the camera captures the raw material while Adobe, Topaz and others provide the editing tools. Even when they have developed such functions in the camera, you can get better results with software.

Apple and others have taken a different approach - photos people take are a lot better with smart enhancements applied automatically. You never even see the neutral photo. And you don't need to buy the software. Basic editing tools - some very good ones - are in the smart phone. But what you don't get is the opportunity to edit the image the way you would with advanced software.

 

[hef19898]

I agree with the idea, but wonder if a camera is the right place for that software. Nikon, Canon and Sony have taken the approach that the camera captures the raw material while Adobe, Topaz and others provide the editing tools. Even when they have developed such functions in the camera, you can get better results with software.

Apple and others have taken a different approach - photos people take are a lot better with smart enhancements applied automatically. You never even see the neutral photo. And you don't need to buy the software. Basic editing tools - some very good ones - are in the smart phone. But what you don't get is the opportunity to edit the image the way you would with advanced software.

And that's why I hope digital cameras remain dumb in that department for a long time! Throw all the computing power at things like subject detection and tracking, but keep the editing on different hardware. Otherwise, all we'll ever see in a time where photography is huge in ways we couldn't conceive a decade ago (thanks to smartphones) are generic, sterile Instagram images.

 

[Whiskeyman]

I eagerly await the camera system that automatically causes my desired subject to appear in the perfect spot in the perfect lighting conditions whenever and where ever I'm out with my camera.

The ones I currently have seem to be equipped for just the opposite, so it has to be an option, right?

Other than that, I'll just be content with what I currently have.

 

[Chris K]

I agree with the idea, but wonder if a camera is the right place for that software. Nikon, Canon and Sony have taken the approach that the camera captures the raw material while Adobe, Topaz and others provide the editing tools. Even when they have developed such functions in the camera, you can get better results with software.

Apple and others have taken a different approach - photos people take are a lot better with smart enhancements applied automatically. You never even see the neutral photo. And you don't need to buy the software. Basic editing tools - some very good ones - are in the smart phone. But what you don't get is the opportunity to edit the image the way you would with advanced software.

I think Apple’s approach is what you’ll see… it’ll just be more configurable. Look at simple systems we have today, like Nikon’s Active D-Lighting, or Fuji’s “DR” setting. All the complexity behind-the-scenes doesn’t have to be exposed to the user. They can just give us a full 16 bits of dynamic range transparently, and give us something like a “virtual aperture”, where turning the dial to f/64 enables stacking and maybe makes the aperture indicator turn a different color or something.

Computational photography could certainly make better “green box” modes, but it could also make our lives easier in manual modes as well.

 

[David Berry]

I suspect that future iterations of high-end 'professional' cameras — Nikon's Z9/8, Canon's R1/3/5, Sony's ⍺1/7/9 —will have digitally encrypted certificates embedded in their images.

By all means enhance the image in-camera or in 'post', but expect to have such manipulations flagged, effectively disqualifying the image from press usage or entry into competitions.

 

[EricBowles]

I think Apple’s approach is what you’ll see… it’ll just be more configurable. Look at simple systems we have today, like Nikon’s Active D-Lighting, or Fuji’s “DR” setting. All the complexity behind-the-scenes doesn’t have to be exposed to the user. They can just give us a full 16 bits of dynamic range transparently, and give us something like a “virtual aperture”, where turning the dial to f/64 enables stacking and maybe makes the aperture indicator turn a different color or something.

Computational photography could certainly make better “green box” modes, but it could also make our lives easier in manual modes as well.

The real value of some of these features is for video or JPEG shooting. While I can always make a better image with a Raw file, when you have an output format - or near final output - in camera tools are useful. It's the same idea as Auto mode for exposure - it's usually quite good, but with a different mode, Exposure compensation and a picture control you can always make it better. Look how many here are using Photoshop, Lightroom, Topaz, or DXO for editing.

Nikon's thought process for enthusiast and pro cameras is you'd rather post process and optimize images. But if you prefer a preset - they do offer a wide range of Picture Controls plus the ability to download other PC presets or make your own. That is a significant advancement in the Z6iii.

 

[John Navitsky]

I suspect that future iterations of high-end 'professional' cameras — Nikon's Z9/8, Canon's R1/3/5, Sony's ⍺1/7/9 —will have digitally encrypted certificates embedded in their images.

By all means enhance the image in-camera or in 'post', but expect to have such manipulations flagged, effectively disqualifying the image from press usage or entry into competitions.

this has already come to the a1, and with luck we’ll see it in the others via fw. but if not the next gen for sure. this is definitely coming soon

 

[Jadiehl]

I'm expecting several areas of advancement:

• Subject Detection - For high end video, I've heard about sports cameras that can follow a specific player number based on the number and color of the jersey. I expect we'll see a lot of ongoing incremental improvement with subject detection and subject recognition.
• Subject identification - Already available in binoculars is a feature that provides the ability to capture an image and provide identification of the subject. It's being used for birding and the database behind it is Cornell's Merlin Photo ID. I expect we'll see the image captioned or titled with the bird common name and scientific name being added to the metadata. I expect we'll also see that applied to people and other subject matter.
• Voice to text - We already have a voice memo field in the Z6iii, Z9 and other cameras. I expect to see that expanded to provide text from spoken word into the metadata. This would be a big benefit for press photographers.
• Camera speed - all the camera companies, sensor companies, processor companies, and memory card companies are striving for faster products and faster cameras. We're seeing high frame rates for stills and video. But the other side of that is rather than faster frame rates, you can have larger files with more data in the same time or less. Take what we have today and double it. We're going to see speed of components driven by much larger markets than cameras. At the same time, faster processing may require new methods of thermal management so that will be a limiting factor but part of the evolution.
• Battery life - While it's old school, all these electronics depend on batteries. We'll see advances on two fronts - more energy efficient cameras and development of batteries with more capacity and/or higher peak power. Related to batteries is heat management and increased power efficiency from the cameras and components.
• Software - some of these features may involve integration with third party software. For example, an easy win would be for Lightroom to license Merlin Photo ID. I'd pay extra for that feature and simply let Lightroom identify my subject and provide captions.
• Software apps - camera companies make all kinds of compromises with the way they tune a camera for general use. Why not provide expanded custom banks and settings as well as firmware optimization based on genre? If I want to accept a full buffer in exchange for pre-release Raw with full size 14 bit files, let me have that option. Let me have extended dynamic range or astrophotography settings. Let me buy a sports pack, a bird pack, a wildlife pack, or a wedding pack and use it to get more out of my camera. I might pay $100 for Bird ID and Pre-Release Raw along with advanced subject recognition and some tradeoffs. Instead of Firmware 2.1, let me get Bird Firmware 2.1 and Landscape Firmware 3.2 - then install the one that matches my photo needs.

Eric, I would have added lighter weight gear.