400mm f/4.5 VR S vs 500mm PF price

[bsparks276]

Is there good possibility on price reduction for 400mm f/4.5 VR S ? What are your thoughts?

I am comparing it with 500mm PF. When Nikon introduced the 500mm PF in August 2018 its price was nice at $3600. For long time it was in shortage, so price didn't come down.

Now after so many introductions on Z lenses, users have many choices. 400mm f/4.5 VR S stayed same at $3249 since it was released, but Nikon pre-announced it well in advance so not much of shortage.

400mm is 'almost' in same league as 500mm PF. Weight of PF is 350 g more, after adding FTZ which can be okay for many. Both are suprisingly sharp and give similar IQ as far as I read. Please correct me if I didn't get proper information. But used PF is around $1500 (which may drop more) and used 400mm is over $2300.

By Black Friday or year end, can price of 400mm drop due to other choices, or owner of 500mm PF will adopt 400mm and push PF price down ?

Of course I do understand, nobody has crystal ball, but trying to get some opinions.

Thanks

 

[EricBowles]

I would expect to see occasional short term promotions and rebates on the 400mm f/4.5, but have no idea of when that might occur. It's a current lens and Nikon has increased prices on some lenses recently, so I don't expect there is a high likelihood of a price drop. The 400mm f/4.5 was a real bargain when launched, and I consider $3249 a very good price even today.

The 500mm PF is still a very good lens, but it is an F-mount lens. 90% of cameras being sold are mirrorless. I see a lot of used lenses available around $1700-2000, but new copies of the lens are still being sold at B&H for $3596.

It's apples and oranges to compare a used copy of a lens first released in 2018 to a new copy of a current lens with the latest optics and technology. There are plenty of people who are running dual systems today with a Z camera and an F-mount. With the adapter, you can mount an F-mount lens on both camera bodies but not the reverse with a Z-mount lens.