the 800 f6.3S VR PF for Z system....

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Nikon continues to baffle me; in the same announcement they go from brilliant to head scratching.

The very fact that they figured out how to make an 800 f:6.3 pf and are launching it is Nikon at its best, both brilliant engineering and willing to take risks.

And then they rebadge a Tamron 28-75 f;2.8 G1 and sell it for $400 more than the original instead of opening the mount to tamron on a few lens offers. So Nikon users will end up with an inferior design to the G2 and pay close to 50% more for the privilege. I am not even sure what the pressing need was since they have a 24-70 f:4 at roughly the same price - 1 stop less bright but wider and optically as solid a performer. Head scratching as I said.


 
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I'm guessing this new 28-70 is mostly to appeal people in the system with a 2.8 aperture at a moderate cost, while not clogging their own factories more than they must already be by having it produced by tamron? If that's what it is, that sound like a good move. I can see Zfc/Z5 owners buying this lens for the fast aperture over the f4 S, while they would be more hesitant maybe to go all in for a $2000 lens.
 
Over the past year, I came to reconcile with the sad reality that a 800 prime would be an ideal addition to my wildlife system. Besides often needing IQ of exotic Nikkor prime standards, there are also situations where a 1000 and even more is essential... So a TC remains as vital. I tested a Used copy on a Z7 and all the baring of canines about its unmanageable weight etc proved exaggerated. Anyway, other copies come and go on the Used market, they are priced at much less than the RRP but are still hugely expensive! The high price made this ideal more of an idealistic idea ;)

So i'd reconciled with continuing to heft along the 400 f2.8E + TC2, but still wondering about "true", then rumours I'd heard from local Nikon guys came true in late October with the updated Z Roadmap. This changed the landscape, with not only this 800 PF but also the 400 PF. As you say so many decisions.... this dilemma motivated me to compile a schematic to mull over, rather than competing lists.

Anyways, I will definitely get this 800 unless something goes awry, and as already said the ZTCs also clinch applications: 1120 f9 and 1600 f13. I think many wildlife photographers will pay for these benefits when and where needed. Birders especially.



If Nikon can keep the weight of this lens under 2.5Kg, price it right like they did with the Z9 that's going to be one heck of a tele lens. All of a sudden the telephoto lens choices in Nikon look incredible. The never ending debate on 400 vs 500 vs 600 got even more complicated with so many variables like standard lenses vs ones with in-built TCs vs PF tech lenses plus the external TCs that can perform much better on mirrorless cameras. This is so much fun but my wallet isn't happy at all these days ;-)
 
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In several ways, we are living in interesting times... It does seem Nikon reassessed priorities and potential sales etc for Z-mount telephotos. And they have now fast tracked the 800 f6.3S PF. Possibly they were waiting on demand for the Z9 and also acting on proven demand for the 300 PF and 500 PF. They may even have woken up to the growing market in sales of these telephotos to non-pro wildlife and few million birders, who often travel to twitch etc. Each PF telephoto will be a guaranteed sale, in contrast to many owners of the 600 f4E who will continue happily with the FTZ, even if they buy a Z9. The design of the 400 f2.8S with a TC14 is surely an analogous tactic to sell this Z telephoto to owners of F-Nikkors.

As for the other options/dilemmas as to 'Which Telephoto(s)?' ie 100-400 S vs 400 f4.5S PF etc? Well, i'm keeping an open mind into next year, but facing up to even more expenses over the next couple of years
 
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Nikon continues to baffle me; in the same announcement they go from brilliant to head scratching.

The very fact that they figured out how to make an 800 f:6.3 pf and are launching it is Nikon at its best, both brilliant engineering and willing to take risks.

And then they rebadge a Tamron 28-75 f;2.8 G1 and sell it for $400 more than the original instead of opening the mount to tamron on a few lens offers. So Nikon users will end up with an inferior design to the G2 and pay close to 50% more for the privilege. I am not even sure what the pressing need was since they have a 24-70 f:4 at roughly the same price - 1 stop less bright but wider and optically as solid a performer. Head scratching as I said.



I think the risk Nikon is taking here is minimal. The success of the 500PF has all but created a certainty that this new 800PF lens will also be backordeed for a very long time.
The fact that they were able to design PF lenses so succesfully, with such great optical performance ís indeed baffling, but they found a way, and are now capitalizing on it.

I infinitely prefer this lens concept to the Canon 800mm f11 concept, which also makes use of (DO) lens shrinking technology, and will for sure get one when it will be available. I will sell the 500PFwhen that time comes, and move from D500+500PF to Z7II+800PF.
 
Beyond dpr rumour mongering, there is no substantive evidence this is THE same Tamron design, but it is likely Nikon is aiming at the same market for 3rd party zooms. They have succeeded here with previous zooms such as the 200-500 f5.6E. Whoever wrote that news article failed to explain the Nikon propriety lens elements and stepper motors.

This is the ideal budget zoom for weddings, events and travel, and it will pair equally well with a Z50, Zfc or a future DX Z MILC. They can buy a constant aperture f2.8 zoom for less half the RRP of the 24-70mm f2.8S. This is the latest Z mount lens, which Nikon has thought through carefully for uses and market.

{snip}

And then they rebadge a Tamron 28-75 f;2.8 G1 and sell it for $400 more than the original instead of opening the mount to tamron on a few lens offers. So Nikon users will end up with an inferior design to the G2 and pay close to 50% more for the privilege. I am not even sure what the pressing need was since they have a 24-70 f:4 at roughly the same price - 1 stop less bright but wider and optically as solid a performer. Head scratching as I said.
 
Beyond dpr rumour mongering, there is no substantive evidence this is THE same Tamron design, but it is likely Nikon is aiming at the same market for 3rd party zooms. They have succeeded here with previous zooms such as the 200-500 f5.6E. Whoever wrote that news article failed to explain the Nikon propriety lens elements and stepper motors.

This is the ideal budget zoom for weddings, events and travel, and it will pair equally well with a Z50, Zfc or a future DX Z MILC. They can buy a constant aperture f2.8 zoom for less half the RRP of the 24-70mm f2.8S. This is the latest Z mount lens, which Nikon has thought through carefully for uses and market.

Enjoy the Kool-aid.
 
Never know..after seeing the Z9 pricing anything can happen. 2.5KG for a PF lens sounds reasonable to me may be +/- 100 grams. On the pricing, my guess is it will be under the 4002.8/ 600f4 and no way as expensive as the 800 E Fl.

I have seen post so far saying it will be about 2.5Kg and cost no more than $7K. These were posted late last evening and I am assuming the posters were rather deep in the bottle at that time. :)
 
Never know..after seeing the Z9 pricing anything can happen. 2.5KG for a PF lens sounds reasonable to me may be +/- 100 grams. On the pricing, my guess is it will be under the 4002.8/ 600f4 and no way as expensive as the 800 E Fl.

1 Kg of weight off and drop price by $5K is about all I would guess will happen. Not really all that far off your guess. We all are just guessing, a couple of years will tell.
 
My rebuttal criticises dpr who have a history of biased misreporting, and shallow rushed reviews.
No need for parochial pejorative chirps. These go nowhere, except downwards. Throwing out a snarky insult to go and drink a sugary kids cooldrink laced with cyanide is not only insulting but unwise in cross cultural forums

Enjoy the Kool-aid.
 
see below for the rough estimates to get at 140 x 315 143 x 377 [EDIT] , and note similar estimates for the 400 PF - a f4.3 or f4.5. The outline of the 100-400 S shows the rear corner, which gives away the perspective in this photo - assuming it's not been photoshopped.

[UPDATE: 20-Jan-2022] The final dimensions of the 400 f2.8S TC = 156 x 380 mm, revealing last month's estimate to be slightly over, because the 800 PF has now expanded in size now its appeared out of the chrysalis. And it now sports a Gold Ring, which means we will probably have to reconsider our hopes of a relatively lower the price!
Revised dimensions 147 x 392mm (previously 143 x 377).

[EDIT - 15 dec] Note I have rechecked measurements and to add 400 f2.8S TC14, which showed up an error I had made. Fixing posts above and 400 f2.8 estimate = 162 x 390 mm which is indeed slightly longer than the 400 f2.8E FL - about the same length as the 500 f4E FL - so approx 24mm longer than 400 f2.8E

800 f6.3S PF size estimates.jpg
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EDIT: new image 19 January 2022

800 f6.3S PF size estimate_Jan2022.jpg
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I am going to assume that optically, the 800mm f6.3 will be really good. Its success will then depend on 1) whether it is truly hand-holdable (no more than five pounds?), and not just for the people who currently handhold their 500mm f4 teles; and 2) the price. What is "affordable" for one person is "exorbitant" for another, but my own estimation is that if the lens comes in under $6000 it will be a runaway hit, and if it is over $9000 it will be a sales disappointment. In between is a kind of gray area.
 
And then they rebadge a Tamron 28-75 f;2.8 G1 and sell it for $400 more than the original instead of opening the mount to tamron on a few lens offers. So Nikon users will end up with an inferior design to the G2 and pay close to 50% more for the privilege. I am not even sure what the pressing need was since they have a 24-70 f:4 at roughly the same price - 1 stop less bright but wider and optically as solid a performer. Head scratching as I said.

I think the news there isn't specifically about the 28-75, but rather that we now see the strategy they may be taking with 3rd party lenses, which is to partner. My guess is the fact that this is the G1 has more to do with timing and logistics.

As for the price increase, I don't see that as an issue. We need to remember that Nikon may be handling the software (and possibly more) so they don't have to share any trade secrets with Tamron and they'll probably have to pick up QC and possibly service. That is to say, Nikon is likely "doing stuff" and the result to the consumer is you get a Nikon supported lens.

It's certainly a very interesting development.
 
I am going to assume that optically, the 800mm f6.3 will be really good. Its success will then depend on 1) whether it is truly hand-holdable (no more than five pounds?), and not just for the people who currently handhold their 500mm f4 teles; and 2) the price. What is "affordable" for one person is "exorbitant" for another, but my own estimation is that if the lens comes in under $6000 it will be a runaway hit, and if it is over $9000 it will be a sales disappointment. In between is a kind of gray area.

That weight estimate will be a challenge. The front two elements of the E are fluorite glass, much lighter than silicon glass. In the PL they will be smaller in diameter but heavier than a same size standard lens. Then there is the stability issue with very long glass. That tube has to be very stiff and designed not vibrate so the mass of the tube can not be cut much. The E already has magnesium. If they cut more that a Kg off the weight I will be very surprised.

As to the price, the E introduced at $17.6K are people really thinking with 6 years of inflation Nikon can cut it by more than 50%?
 
That weight estimate will be a challenge. The front two elements of the E are fluorite glass, much lighter than silicon glass. In the PL they will be smaller in diameter but heavier than a same size standard lens. Then there is the stability issue with very long glass. That tube has to be very stiff and designed not vibrate so the mass of the tube can not be cut much. The E already has magnesium. If they cut more that a Kg off the weight I will be very surprised.

As to the price, the E introduced at $17.6K are people really thinking with 6 years of inflation Nikon can cut it by more than 50%?
Well, it has less large heavy glass, being a PF, and it's 6.3. And there is less overall materials. Less of everything. So there's hope :)
 
Beyond dpr rumour mongering, there is no substantive evidence this is THE same Tamron design, but it is likely Nikon is...
I think that the lens diagrams look identical. If it's not the Tamron design it's a hell of a coincidence.

 
That weight estimate will be a challenge. The front two elements of the E are fluorite glass, much lighter than silicon glass. In the PL they will be smaller in diameter but heavier than a same size standard lens. Then there is the stability issue with very long glass. That tube has to be very stiff and designed not vibrate so the mass of the tube can not be cut much. The E already has magnesium. If they cut more that a Kg off the weight I will be very surprised.

As to the price, the E introduced at $17.6K are people really thinking with 6 years of inflation Nikon can cut it by more than 50%?

Well, inflation is a wild card here, isn't it, and related to that is, how long until the lens actually is "developed" and priced? The truth of the matter, however, is that if the whole point of this lens is to have a PF optic that is hand-holdable, it really should not weigh much more than five pounds. I own the 200-500mm zoom, and at 5 pounds 1 oz, it's about as heavy a walkaround lens as I would want to handle. The Sigma Sports 150-600mm weighs 6 pounds, 5 ounces, and it is just too heavy for hand-holding (for me, and I think, most people).

As for pricing, well who knows, but the 800mm E is made in very small batches and includes a matching teleconverter, a trunk case, etc. I really think Nikon will be looking at the market for bird/animal lenses that Canon is trying to claim with its f11 cheapo lenses and will try to compete at some level. I think the price will be yes, half or less than the 800mm f5.6E.

We should start our own little version here of "The Price is Right."
 
I feel like I've gone from no choices for long primes in Z mount to too many :). That's a good thing though. I currently have the 500pf and 600FL, but am thinking about what to replace these in the future. The choices that are lining up in the next couple of years are tough. Do I go for the Z 400 2.8 with built-in 1.4X teleconverter, Z 600 F4, or the Z 800 PF? I suppose the cost will probably make that decision for me.
 
They may even have woken up to the growing market in sales of these telephotos to non-pro wildlife and few million birders, who often travel to twitch etc. <snip>
As for the other options/dilemmas as to 'Which Telephoto(s)?' ie 100-400 S vs 400 f4.5S PF etc?

Many birders don't just carry binoculars and a camera but also a scope+tripod. For them weight is always an important consideration. I belong to that camp, and I'll look at the 100-400S, especially if it takes converters reasonably well.
 
Well, inflation is a wild card here, isn't it, and related to that is, how long until the lens actually is "developed" and priced? The truth of the matter, however, is that if the whole point of this lens is to have a PF optic that is hand-holdable, it really should not weigh much more than five pounds. I own the 200-500mm zoom, and at 5 pounds 1 oz, it's about as heavy a walkaround lens as I would want to handle. The Sigma Sports 150-600mm weighs 6 pounds, 5 ounces, and it is just too heavy for hand-holding (for me, and I think, most people).

As for pricing, well who knows, but the 800mm E is made in very small batches and includes a matching teleconverter, a trunk case, etc. I really think Nikon will be looking at the market for bird/animal lenses that Canon is trying to claim with its f11 cheapo lenses and will try to compete at some level. I think the price will be yes, half or less than the 800mm f5.6E.

We should start our own little version here of "The Price is Right."
I missed the hand holding part in Nikons statement.
 
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