Something I've been saying at various times since the Z9 appeared and the "I want a mirrorless D500 got ratcheted up a couple notches", Thom Hogan said in a recent posting on Z-System User...
"Some of you will say “Nikon should just buy the existing Sony Semiconductor sensors.” Specifically, you’ll point to the 26mp sensor used in the X-H2S (stacked DX), the 33mp sensor used in the A7 Mark IV, and the 61mp sensor used in the A7R Mark V. First, I’m not sure the first two of those aren’t tied up with some sort of time exclusivity arrangement. Second, the last sensor is clearly available but probably doesn’t suffice for Nikon’s desire for no more mechanical shutter cameras.
As I’ve noted before, tell me the image sensors Nikon will be using for future cameras and I’ll tell you what the camera is. But if I have to guess at what image sensors Nikon has available, well, anything is possible, it just might not be probable ;~)."
IMHO, if two factors aligned, Nikon MIGHT be producing the mirrorless D500 not the Z8...those two factors are:
A) the parts being available to build the product that meets the standard of performance that they would set for it to enter the market as a performance leader, not a "me too" product based on old technology.
B) a large enough market for it to not lose money on it in the long run. Only Nikon knows, for certain, how many D500's were actually sold. Color me sceptical that a large enough market exists in the new mirrorless world to make developing a somewhat niche high-performance DX product a wise use of company resources. It's generally an unsuccessful business strategy to try to be all things to everyone. Does anyone see FujiFilm or OM Systems rushing into FF bodies...has Panasonic set the world on fire with their FF lineup?
An argument could well be made that the Z8 is Nikon's best effort, given the parts and technology available at this time, to offer a product that can meet and exceed the needs of the D850 and the D500 mirrorless holdouts. Hence the product being released at the lower end of the rumored price range. And in 2023 dollars, it's priced less than the D850 was at launch and includes an arguably state of the art hybrid video camera in the deal.
Where do you think the surprising number of Z9 buyers and potentially large numbers of Z8 buyers are coming from...I'd wager a very large number of them, like myself, are former D500 owners, who have the means to prioritize their spending on a more expensive, more capable body.
So where does that leave those of you who can't justify and/or afford a $4000 body right now...or ever. If that were me and I had a sizeable investment in decent Nikon glass, some of it, especially longer lenses in FX, I'd wait and see what happens through the end of this year in terms of a Z50 upgrade or replacement with a new designation. I have to believe that with the Expeed 7 or a lessor variant, AF and FPS could be improved to offer D500 users a palatable choice to entice them to switch to mirrorless at a sub $2000 price point, maybe far below $2000, with IBIS and decent 4K video capability. A mini Z8 DX with stacked CMOS...nope, you can't have that now...maybe never. There are drawbacks to pushing the resolution of DX much higher, but I'll leave that to others to comment on.
Cheers!