Anybody still waiting on the Nikon 800mm PF?

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French Avocado said:
I agree that it is a "hot issue" but did not know that I had to explain my purchases. My photo store says it receives lots of orders and then folks back out so it requests a deposit. Because we were serious real buyers, I paid $13,000 for two lenses in April of 2022 to make certain that we would receive them and not get bumped on the list - although not knowing that it would be a year or that demand would be intense.
Folks criticize Nikon for slow delivery but part of the problem is that Nikon does not know true demand due to those who place orders at multiple stores without even a deposit to prove real intent. Then those placing unsecured orders, take the first one to arrive and cancel their other orders. This creates artificial demand and leaves Nikon without knowing what the real numbers of demand are. In this case based on what I have read, it takes a long time to cure one or more elements in the 800PF which slows the process but how does Nikon know true demand when folks place multiple orders and cancel - does Nikon take the number and divide by two, three or four? Sure some folks have canceled due to delayed delivery timing and opted for other lenses but there are a lot with multiple orders.
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I understand the concept of "perceived" demand, but I think in this context it is absolutely incorrect. Because of the reasons you, and many others have mentioned, Nikon's production rate for these lenses is dictated by manufacturing constraints, and as we all know this rate drastically lags demand. Nikon can only produce so many of these lenses in a month due to these factors, and that production rate (supply) at this point in time is definitely NOT dictated by "perceived" demand. "Perceived" demand will only become a factor if production (supply) exceeds demand, and we know at this time that "real" demand far exceeds production. If production rates (supply) met, or exceeded "real" demand, none of us would sign up on multiple wait lists...we would simply walk into our local camera store and walk out with a lens (or order from B&H, Adorama or some other online store and have it in a few days). (In addition, as an aside, if production (supply) exceeded demand, none of us would be upset at being bumped down the list by NPS-ers.) At this point, Nikon certainly is not in a position where they need to gauge demand and so they can determine an appropriate production rate. They simply need to make as many lenses as rapidly as they can to clear the existing "real" backlog of orders. At some point Nikon may have to gauge demand, but not now. When that happens, none of us will need to wait and we can focus on photography. :)

BTW, I just got back from a local state park from my first outing with the 800. WOW! Here's a capture of a red-winged blackbird blowing a bubble! I haven't taken time to do anything with this image as I have a "honey-do" list, but my first outing made me a happy camper indeed.
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M R Opp said:
I understand the concept of "perceived" demand, but I think in this context it is absolutely incorrect. Because of the reasons you, and many others have mentioned, Nikon's production rate for these lenses is dictated by manufacturing constraints, and as we all know this rate drastically lags demand. Nikon can only produce so many of these lenses in a month due to these factors, and that production rate (supply) at this point in time is definitely NOT dictated by "perceived" demand. "Perceived" demand will only become a factor if production (supply) exceeds demand, and we know at this time that "real" demand far exceeds production. If production rates (supply) met, or exceeded "real" demand, none of us would sign up on multiple wait lists...we would simply walk into our local camera store and walk out with a lens (or order from B&H, Adorama or some other online store and have it in a few days). (In addition, as an aside, if production (supply) exceeded demand, none of us would be upset at being bumped down the list by NPS-ers.) At this point, Nikon certainly is not in a position where they need to gauge demand and so they can determine an appropriate production rate. They simply need to make as many lenses as rapidly as they can to clear the existing "real" backlog of orders. At some point Nikon may have to gauge demand, but not now. When that happens, none of us will need to wait and we can focus on photography. :)

BTW, I just got back from a local state park from my first outing with the 800. WOW! Here's a capture of a red-winged blackbird blowing a bubble! I haven't taken time to do anything with this image as I have a "honey-do" list, but my first outing made me a happy camper indeed.
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Nice picture.

Your point is valid given the limited production being the most prominent factor. However, when dealers place orders that are inflated, it ultimately will have its affect. As an example, Nikon reached a point where they would no longer take new orders. As for me, I will no longer place multiple orders for the same item especially with dealers that do not require a down payment. It seems with dealers like B&H and Adorama, it will make little difference anyway.
 
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French Avocado said:
. . . Then those placing unsecured orders, take the first one to arrive and cancel their other orders. This creates artificial demand and leaves Nikon without knowing what the real numbers of demand are. In this case based on what I have read, it takes a long time to cure one or more elements in the 800PF which slows the process but how does Nikon know true demand when folks place multiple orders and cancel - does Nikon take the number and divide by two, three or four? Sure some folks have canceled due to delayed delivery timing and opted for other lenses but there are a lot with multiple orders.
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The problem of people who want to buy Nikon gear who are not NPS members putting in multiple orders is caused by the long wait (6 months to a year) that has been occurring in the last few years as Nikon introduces new equipment. Not sure how other camera manufacturers assess demand, but they seem to be able to do it without knowing how many orders will be placed. These long waits have caused more people to put in more orders at multiple places. I think blaming these people for putting in multiple orders is unfair (and yes I put in multiple orders and will continue to do so). And I predict the problem will be even worse when the mythical Z8 and 200-600mm lens are released.
PS. I doubt Nikon even knows how many orders have been placed for a particular item at different stores. Also further compounding the issue is the lack of clarity in how orders by various stores are filled. There are reports of Nikon dealers without any orders receiving hard to get Nikon gear (ie. the 800mm PF lens) while other dealers with orders with deposits have long lag times getting the camera/lens. Thus it seems to make sense to order from multiple dealers since one has no idea which dealers order will be filled first.
 
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Shutterbug fan 1 said:
Nice picture.

Your point is valid given the limited production being the most prominent factor. However, when dealers place orders that are inflated, it ultimately will have its affect. As an example, Nikon reached a point where they would no longer take new orders. As for me, I will no longer place multiple orders for the same item especially with dealers that do not require a down payment. It seems with dealers like B&H and Adorama, it will make little difference anyway.
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Key word is "ultimately". We are clearly not there now. At some point, the 800 mm supply/demand ratio will be similar to that of the Z9 or any other "hot" technology. But for now, this is most certainly not the case, and I stand by my premise that the "perceived" demand will be self rectifying.
 
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cchuck said:
Hmmm. I ordered same day at B&H. Maybe I will hear tomorrow. Are you NPS?
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Let me clarify...I chatted with B&H Customer Service and they told me my order would be fulfilled with the shipment arriving on 26 April. I do not have an email from them stating there is a shipment arriving nor one that says mine has been shipped. I am not NPS.
 
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SHarris said:
Let me clarify...I chatted with B&H Customer Service and they told me my order would be fulfilled with the shipment arriving on 26 April. I do not have an email from them stating there is a shipment arriving nor one that says mine has been shipped. I am not NPS.
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Thanks! I assumed that might be the case. I haven’t received a call or email. B&H must have noticed I checked my Orders this morning and saw the estimated delivery date.
 
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I ordered from B&H Photo on the afternoon of April 6, 2022, the first day the 800mm could be ordered. Not expecting a lens anytime soon. Saw on-line where someone ordered from B&H 2 hours after orders were accepted and got a lens last month. I am resigned to waiting until the fall or later to receive a first day order.
 
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Please consider supporting smaller regional camera stores, Kenmore, Murphys, KEH, Allen’s, Mikes, Sammy s….

When so many orders of 800mm PF are placed with the big two, the waiting time can excruciating.

Oliver
 
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BlackRockArt said:
Please consider supporting smaller regional camera stores, Kenmore, Murphys, KEH, Allen’s, Mikes, Sammy s….

When so many orders of 800mm PF are placed with the big two, the waiting time can excruciating.
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At an "open (discount) day" at WEX in the UK I learned they could tell you how many were on each waiting list.

This was before the announcement of the 400 f4.5.

There were about 2,000 for the 100-400 and about 1,000 for the 600 f4. With so many I did not join the WEX list.
 
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Jay said:
I ordered from B&H Photo on the afternoon of April 6, 2022, the first day the 800mm could be ordered. Not expecting a lens anytime soon. Saw on-line where someone ordered from B&H 2 hours after orders were accepted and got a lens last month. I am resigned to waiting until the fall or later to receive a first day order.
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You should have yours. Call them. I ordered same day morning. Got mine Apr. 26.
 
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cchuck said:
You should have yours. Call them. I ordered same day morning. Got mine Apr. 26.
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Jay said:
I ordered from B&H Photo on the afternoon of April 6, 2022, the first day the 800mm could be ordered. Not expecting a lens anytime soon. Saw on-line where someone ordered from B&H 2 hours after orders were accepted and got a lens last month. I am resigned to waiting until the fall or later to receive a first day order.
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Have you received it yet?
 
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My Canadian dealer said he still has 25 pre-sold orders to fill going back to December orders. He said the supply is getting better. Said he could get me one in 4-6 weeks.
He also said he still has 11 pre-sold 600TC orders going back to November and supply of that lens is still "brutal".
 
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I am not an NPS member. I had attempted to order the 800PF through my local brick and mortar store, but they said it has been on back order for so long, that they have stopped taking orders. So I decided to try ordering through Nikon. I placed an order on April 21 of this year. This morning I received a notification that my credit card is being charged, as well as an email saying the lens was no longer on back order and that I should receive shipment details soon. I am shocked as I expected to be waiting for months.
 
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Fishboy1952 said:
I am not an NPS member. I had attempted to order the 800PF through my local brick and mortar store, but they said it has been on back order for so long, that they have stopped taking orders. So I decided to try ordering through Nikon. I placed an order on April 21 of this year. This morning I received a notification that my credit card is being charged, as well as an email saying the lens was no longer on back order and that I should receive shipment details soon. I am shocked as I expected to be waiting for months.
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I’m back to seriously considering this lens so may need to look into this option.
 
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