Nikon temporarily suspends order for 400 F/2.8 and 800 F/6.3

[Lance B]

I understand that and it is a fairly recent thing. It was the same story with D500, D850, 200-500, 500pf and Z7ii. All of those were pre-COVID when there were no serious supply chain issues.

As it stands at the moment due to covid etc, things that very few people want to buy are generally available. Things that people really want to buy can be hard to source. There are good reasons for this. I would rather be running a business where demand outstripped supply rather than the other way round. Where supply outstrips demand just means overproduction or the product is not that good, both good ways to lose money. Good products are worth wating for and they are in demand for a reason. No point in Nikon buying more machines, production line equipment and train up personel to make more Z9's only to have demand fall off in 12 months and have to sell off machines/production line equipment and lay off those trained up workers. Having said that, that all depends on them getting parts from other sources like chips etc.

 

[jeffnles1]

As it stands at the moment due to covid etc, things that very few people want to buy are generally available. Things that people really want to buy can be hard to source. There are good reasons for this. I would rather be running a business where demand outstripped supply rather than the other way round. Where supply outstrips demand just means overproduction or the product is not that good, both good ways to lose money. Good products are worth wating for and they are in demand for a reason. No point in Nikon buying more machines, production line equipment and train up personel to make more Z9's only to have demand fall off in 12 months and have to sell off machines/production line equipment and lay off those trained up workers. Having said that, that all depends on them getting parts from other sources like chips etc.

I’m not disagreeing or trying to be disagreeable. I hear and understand what you’re saying. Once again, the point is this is nothing new for Nikon and it seems like a launch strategy for them dating back at least 6 or 7 years. It is great to have more demand than you can produce however, when you cannot produce enough to cover demand and the wait is excessive (6-8 months or more) with no end in sight then the company is leaving money on the table. Z9 is a good example. The only ways to get one are to order from Nikon or a big online store and take your place in line or start calling every camera shop in the country with the hopes they may have an unclaimed one in stock. The closest local store to me is almost 2 hours away. On pre-order items they ask for a 10% non-refundable deposit up front. That is $550 you would have to be willing to just walk away from if you found one someplace else. Basically what they are saying is they don’t want to mess with pre-orders and you should wait until it becomes available in the store and if you insist, you need skin in the game. Not a bad practice however, it is still a long wait.

If Nikon would simply say something like. “We will begin shipping this product to NPS members and retail customers in limited quantities on XYZ day. Due to anticipated demand, wait times could be significant, perhaps as long as a year.“.

At least consumers would know where to set their expectations and could say “I don’t want to wait” and buy something else or “OK, I can wait.” It really comes to communication and managing customer expectations. At least for the last 6-8 years, Nikon has been behind on those skills.

Personally, my D500 still works, my F mount lenses work and I’n not in immediate need. If my camera broke tomorrow then I’d have to decide if I should buy used and wait the Nikon mirrorless supply out, find a different type of camera or simply go without for a year while I wait. The last option isn’t happening. I have zero interest in telling someone what to do with their time or money. As a long time Nikon user I would like to see the company correct the situation and succeed. IF they don’t there are plenty of other camera brands out there willing to accept my money. Unless something forces my hand, like a catastrophic failure of my current equipment, I’m willing to take a wait and see approach and hope Nikon gets it together.

Again, I do not wish to be argumentative here. This is a complex problem and one Nikon has been suffering for several years before the current supply chain crisis existed.

 

[philippe]

.

 

[French Avocado]

I understand that and it is a fairly recent thing. It was the same story with D500, D850, 200-500, 500pf and Z7ii. All of those were pre-COVID when there were no serious supply chain issues.

I remember waiting impatiently for the D800

 

[fcotterill]

i don't usually follow Thom, but i think Thom's take on the situations seemed reasonable: basically you build infrastructure for the long term ongoing demand, to do otherwise would be unwise

Demand Versus Supply | Thom Hogan

Nikon can't meet demand, or increase supply

www.zsystemuser.com

Yes, as I quoted above, and the 2018 Imaging Resource article is interesting.

It details what goes into the long process at Nikon Hikari, which explains, in turn, why it takes many months to get from raw materials to a lens blank of very high quality.

Yields are probably less for telephoto elements, which must be flawless. The Hikari factory is the heart of Nikon.

光学ガラス製造工程 | 光ガラス株式会社

High quality optical glass underscores there're certain processes that are impossible to accelerate (regardless of the clamour for instant gratification exacerbated by social media )

Manufacturing glass that grows like a lifeform | Stories | Nikon About Us

Synthetic fused silica glass is utilized for the lenses of Nikon's semiconductor lithography systems. Discover the technology behind this glass that provides such outstanding optical performance.

www.nikon.com

 

[Calson]

It is not a simple matter to double or triple production of a new product under any circumstances. If a single supplier is not able to increase its production of a part then the entire lens cannot be assembled and shipped out. I doubt very much that Nikon is manufacturing every single item that is used in its lenses. It is to be applauded that Nikon has stopped adding orders to the queue until they can ship product in a timely manner.

My 600mm f/4E has been at Nikon for more than two months waiting for a single part. It is far more troublesome to have a $13,000 lens sitting at Nikon for an unknown period of time because the people at Nikon have chosen to use their limited supply of parts to produce new lenses for new sales instead of using these parts to repair the lenses they have already sold to customers.

 

[GrandNagus50]

It is not a simple matter to double or triple production of a new product under any circumstances. If a single supplier is not able to increase its production of a part then the entire lens cannot be assembled and shipped out. I doubt very much that Nikon is manufacturing every single item that is used in its lenses. It is to be applauded that Nikon has stopped adding orders to the queue until they can ship product in a timely manner.

My 600mm f/4E has been at Nikon for more than two months waiting for a single part. It is far more troublesome to have a $13,000 lens sitting at Nikon for an unknown period of time because the people at Nikon have chosen to use their limited supply of parts to produce new lenses for new sales instead of using these parts to repair the lenses they have already sold to customers.

My understanding of the production schedule for these expensive, speciality lenses is that they produce a certain number and then it might be months before they produce more, and it's been that way for years. So it's possible that Nikon isn't currently sending your part to the "new lens" assembly line, but instead the part simply is not out there at all. I'm not sure that will make you (or anyone) feel any better.

 

[O]

Note: corrected the title - 400 F/2.8, not 400 F/4.5. It seems these lens are big hits. Nikon could have charged more for them given the high demand. Wonder when first 400 F/4.5 will ship?

Nikon temporary suspended orders for the NIKKOR Z 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S and NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S lenses (plus the latest reviews) - Nikon Rumors

Nikon temporary suspended orders for the NIKKOR Z 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S and NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3 VR S lenses: “Nikon has received an unexpectedly large number of orders for the NIKKOR Z 400mm f/2.8 TC VR S and the NIKKOR Z 800mm f/6.3VR S lenses. To better assist our customers and retailer...

nikonrumors.com

My Hi ace van is available at $60 K if i choose 9-12 months to wait, $75K if i want it now as a demonstrator with 100 klm on the clock, yes its a premium, this tactic is by design not necessity, it gets people ordering ahead, the order books going forard get full the batch runs larger and it lifts prices of the used market significantly narrowing the gap to new prices, consumers will prefer to buy new ahead of time especially with warranty now blowing out to 7 and 10 years with built in caped servicing.

Add to this ................ Marketing promotes shortages fear for missing out so get in quick, also the transition to Hybrid and full electric vehicles in growing so leed times need to shift forward at least 12 to 18 months ideally, this is so EOQ can be achieved.

Hi Ace comes from Japan Hi Lux all from Thailand.

I feel camera gear lenses bodies has a very high Chinese made content.

If something is in short supply it stimulates demand and achieves higher prices, example toilet paper, meat, etc create fear and your order book fills.

Some items cases could also be some brinkmanship, who knows, announce a new product, gauge reaction of competitors and market then pull back A) to modify the product or B) your embarrassed as the order books haven't filled as expected.

Yes there are genuine reasons for supply chain issues for so many companies but it cant be with every car camera washing machine maker in teh world etc etc

The world runs on more BS than ever before and we unfortunately get dragged along in it LOL
Its getting harder to know if things are real or perception being sold to us..........i trust less these days then before.


Happy days.










Is their a shortage of materials chips etc etc .........who knows or who cares.

 

[Bob Hullinger]

The only change I would make to your post would be to place an exclamation point at the end of the third and final sentences.

Hey Wayne, I think I have come up with the solution to this terrible problem. I have decided to take the "Nikon Preorder Pledge". To end the delay of products that haven't been produced yet I promised to never preorder a Nikon product. Imagine a world where thousands of others join me and nobody expects a product to be delivered until it actually exists and you can simply call a camera store and say "Hey Paul at B&H I see you have Z9s (or whatever the product may be) in stock, here's my credit card number, please send me one . I'd like to use the two day shipping." Imagine no complaining, it's easy if you do, nothing to whine or moan about, even if you shoot Sony or Canon too...

 

[Venkatesh VT]

Hey Wayne, I think I have come up with the solution to this terrible problem. I have decided to take the "Nikon Preorder Pledge". To end the delay of products that haven't been produced yet I promised to never preorder a Nikon product. Imagine a world where thousands of others join me and nobody expects a product to be delivered until it actually exists and you can simply call a camera store and say "Hey Paul at B&H I see you have Z9s (or whatever the product may be) in stock, here's my credit card number, please send me one . I'd like to use the two day shipping." Imagine no complaining, it's easy if you do, nothing to whine or moan about, even if you shoot Sony or Canon too...

Actually this is how I ordered Z9 in India after release of its FW 2.0 & got it in 1 day Earlier I had ordered A1 in the same way & got it after 25 days

 

[Bobo]

Nikon only produced about 4,000 400mm 2.8 FL units in eight years.

That's 500 lenses per year. Granted, they probably sold more the first year and less as time went on, but their initial run was probably higher too.

It's only 7m / year in revenue. It's not their bread and butter. They don't really care when they make the lenses or how long you have to wait.

Spot on - this is the real cause behind long Nikon waits - they refuse to ramp up production & the costs - at the beginning, when demand is high!

 

[fcotterill]

To elaborate on articles above (links on previous page) as to what Nikon has made public about the long road from manufacturing raw optical glass for all its products, through to final assembly of high end Gold and Silver ring telephotos....in this case the limited run(s) of super telephotos of high quality. The following pair of articles by Japanese industry journalist, Makoto Suzuki, are well worth reading using machine translation.

特別企画：ニッコールのふるさと探訪：秋田県湯沢市「光ガラス」編　光学ガラスができるまで

ニコンのニッコールレンズが、2016年6月に累計生産1億本を達成した。8,000万本の記念でニッコールレンズキャンペーンの夜景空撮ツアーをレポートしたのが2年前。「この調子で9,000万本、1億本と数を伸ばしていただきたい」と結んだが、その時は意外と早くやってきたような気がする。

dc.watch.impress.co.jp

特別企画：ニッコールのふるさと探訪：栃木県大田原市「栃木ニコン」編　ガラス加工から、交換レンズの完成まで

ニッコールレンズの累計1億本達成を記念した"ふるさと探訪"企画。前編の光ガラス（秋田県湯沢市）で作られた"ニッコールレンズの素"を追いかけて、今回は栃木県大田原市の「栃木ニコン」にやってきた。いよいよガラスが加工されて鏡筒に収まり、ニッコールレンズとして出荷されるまでを見ていく。

dc.watch.impress.co.jp

Raw glass ingots consume months in the various steps, mixing, melts and remelts, shaping, screening for defects, annealing after hot forging.... This is prior to further procedures in the factories making the camera lenses: Tochigi Nikon, and/or China, Thailand.

There are also rumoured to be challenges in 'mass' production of fluorite and phase-fresnel elements. Above all QUALITY control delays critical stages over the entire process, with percentage failures due to imperfections etc.

As know from assembly of a 600 f4E FL, the teams of expert technicans are critical. They are skilled in deploying precision apparatus to align and assemble the big glass elements etc. Obviously, CPU Shortages inject yet another challenge to lens production, in products and factory equipment

 

[philippe]

.