You could pick up a like new d500 at keh or wherever for $1500, but you want to trade a $5500 body for it? That must be some lens!
Nikon To Stop Making DSLR Cameras
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You could pick up a like new d500 at keh or wherever for $1500, but you want to trade a $5500 body for it? That must be some lens!
Here's lens... https://www.nikonusa.com/en/nikon-p...s-nikkor-180-400mm-f%2f4e-tc1.4-fl-ed-vr.html
New price is $12,000 and used for about $8500. It is quite the lens.
This lens costs about as much as the 400mm f2.8FLE (described by someone else... link: https://www.nikonusa.com/en/nikon-p...nses/af-s-nikkor-400mm-f%2f2.8e-fl-ed-vr.html )
So yes, I would make the trade!
Whoever got a D850 + 400mm f2.8 FLE in trade of a Z9 got a heck of a deal!!!
Just because the Z9 has Nikon's latest tech and can help you catch the occasional moment of action missed by a D5/D500, it does not equate to the flipping amazing bokeh one could have gotten with a 400mm f2.8FLE.
For me, the 180-400 w/ built in converter would allow me to be more efficient when presented with a shooting opportunity. I would have gladly put the $5400 I spent on a Z9 into that lens... however, it would have only gotten me 1/2 a lens.
regards,
bruce
New price is $12,000 and used for about $8500. It is quite the lens.
This lens costs about as much as the 400mm f2.8FLE (described by someone else... link: https://www.nikonusa.com/en/nikon-p...nses/af-s-nikkor-400mm-f%2f2.8e-fl-ed-vr.html )
So yes, I would make the trade!
Whoever got a D850 + 400mm f2.8 FLE in trade of a Z9 got a heck of a deal!!!
Just because the Z9 has Nikon's latest tech and can help you catch the occasional moment of action missed by a D5/D500, it does not equate to the flipping amazing bokeh one could have gotten with a 400mm f2.8FLE.
For me, the 180-400 w/ built in converter would allow me to be more efficient when presented with a shooting opportunity. I would have gladly put the $5400 I spent on a Z9 into that lens... however, it would have only gotten me 1/2 a lens.
regards,
bruce
That's not exactly right. The EVF and other components of the mirrorless cameras add a lot of cost. The real difference is all the high volume, low cost consumer cameras with thin margins and high sales and marketing costs. They simply don't make those for mirrorless. Nikon has released one consumer DSLR since 2016.
Dr_J
Member
Perhaps today, but I doubt that was the camera manufacturers’ original plan. Many of today’s ‘higher costs’ would be the result of electronic component shortages brought about by the global pandemic leading to unforeseen production shortfalls and supply chain issues feeding into their production processes which we, the consumers, see as long delivery delays, order suspensions, etc. Mirrorless cameras should have been much cheaper to produce than their DSLR counterparts due to manufacturing automation and lower mechanical complexity; e.g. Z9 - no mirror box, no mechanical shutter, etc., however, the aforementioned global issues have introduced a significant delay into manufacturers’ plans - aka the law of unintended outcomes.
Manufacturers‘ economic performance is clearly being negatively impacted with reduced product availability, (above forecast) reduced sales and consequently reduced profits none of which is good news. Nikon’s response to the ‘stop making DSLR cameras’ article is a wholly to be expected holding statement akin to those made by Olympus about not selling off their m43 camera business. Companies will do what they have to in order to continue to give a return to their shareholders - it’s what they do.
Its not birds-in-flight, more dogs-in-flight what was postet from Hooky69 (Heiko Löhrer) in flickr, but the AF of the Z9 in combo with a 2.8-lens and all shots open at 2.8 works „fine“ - ok, not the longest lens, but you must see…
tickle_my_nikon
Active member
"F3 HP, F6, D4s, D780 and D500"
If it hit the focus, I would still own it. If there was any other aspect of the camera that was an upgrade, I would still own it. If the sensor was even equal to the D850, I would still own it.
I'll also note that I haven't been suffering for years, and struggling with the Z6/Z6ii or the Z7/Z7ii. I'm sure the Z9 is a leaps and bounds upgrade from those two camera models.
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I'm not sure what is up with your camera, but my Z9 is leaps and bounds beyond the D500, D850, D4s... I've never seen a camera that can hit focus more reliably. The critical sharpness is better on my F-mount lenses than it ever was with their matching DSLRs.
I think that you might be in the extreme minority of shooters who don't see dramatic improvements w/ continuous focus AF consistency.
However, in spite of this... I would downgrade my body to a D500 to take the trade mentioned above... the magic from a 400mm f2.8 FLE, when shot in the right circumstances, beats any magic from a Z9.
bruce
tickle_my_nikon
Active member
There's not much difference in image quality or focus speed between any of the super telephotos.
If you know how to use the D5/D6 autofocus systems properly, and fine tune your lenses, they work great.
Anyone who wants to challenge the veracity of that statement can put up their Z9 camera against my 400mm FL in a bet. If my image comes out sharper on my D850, your camera is forfeit. If I lose, you get a free $8,000 lens.
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This topic isn’t about one camera being better than another. We each of us have different experience and user style. So let’s lay off the personalities at war here. Thanks
fcotterill
Well-known member
This author doesn't say much new, however the graphic summarizes the choices CaNikon cannot avoid.
Higher sales of MILC lenses underscore the envitable switch from the DSLR systems.
While the Japanese companies have had to switch to MILC R&D and production, we individual photographers have the liberty to choose our System(s): DSLR, MILC or Mixed F-Z or EF-R.... This is set by economics and/or for the primary reason of optimal lenses for one's work
www.dpreview.com
Higher sales of MILC lenses underscore the envitable switch from the DSLR systems.
While the Japanese companies have had to switch to MILC R&D and production, we individual photographers have the liberty to choose our System(s): DSLR, MILC or Mixed F-Z or EF-R.... This is set by economics and/or for the primary reason of optimal lenses for one's work
Of course Nikon is getting out of DSLRs, the only question is: how far behind is Canon?
The Nikkei has reported that Nikon is planning a future away from DSLRs. The company itself made a partial denial, but it should be clear that the writing is on the wall for mirrored cameras. And that goes for Canon, too.
www.dpreview.com
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Nikon's Investor Relations presentation on June 3 went into a good bit of detail about the camera market and what they are doing. It's worth a read. There is a presentation with notes for the Imaging Unit and it goes into a lot of detail. You can map the DSLR forecast, Z30 positioning, and future cameras and lenses with this document.
They are focused on the professional and enthusiast market (Canon is doing something similar, but has a much larger entry level DSLR segment to consider - and it may be a problem). Between 2021 and 2025 Nikon expects that market to grow from 2.7 million camera units per year to 3.0 million. The entry level market over the same period will continue to decline by approximately 50% from 2.6 million to 1.3 million.
Nikon expects their share of the pro/enthusiast market to grow from 490,000 to 700,000 from 2021 to 2025. Entry level models will be effectively discontinued. Total cameras sold will remain flat. Average selling price will increase by 20% - largely through eliminating entry level cameras and replacing them with enthusiast and professional cameras. They expect to move from 1.8 to 2.0 lenses per camera sold. They will increase the number of lenses from 29 to 50 by FY2025. (Keep in mind these forecasts are for March 31, 2025 - less than three years from now.)
DSLR cameras and F-mount lenses are expected to decline from 35% of revenue or 60 billion yen to about 7% of revenue or 14 billion yen. Mirrorless cameras and lenses are expected to grow from 55% of revenue or 95 billion yen to 80% of revenue or 160 billion yen. That means they are still going to be selling DSLR cameras and lenses over the next three years, but it is declining and R&D will focus on mirrorless. (It's worth noting the last SLR flagship was the F6, and the last flagship DSLR is the D6.) Nikon has increased Imaging R&D for imaging by 10% in the most recent year end forecast.
Video is an increasingly important segment for Nikon and other companies. The Z9 and Z30 both target major improvements in video. They specifically note the strategy of partnering with accessory makers to deliver accessories for video. They also reference the high end capabilities using MILC video and tools like NXField and NX MobileAir. Video creators have grown by 500% over the past six years so it is a segment of increasing importance. A number of professionals I know consider video more important than stills for conservation and sports photographers.
Given the lead times for cameras and lenses, you can bet the camera lineup is already scheduled through March 2025. The specific features are still to be developed, but there is a lot of reference to 3D technologies for industrial use, and that should be incorporated in photography cameras. It's not just about simple things like face and eye detection. The industrial technologies for 3D, 4D, Virtual Reality, and Mixed Reality are already being used in Nikon's own facilities. The advanced cameras are central to that strategy.
They are focused on the professional and enthusiast market (Canon is doing something similar, but has a much larger entry level DSLR segment to consider - and it may be a problem). Between 2021 and 2025 Nikon expects that market to grow from 2.7 million camera units per year to 3.0 million. The entry level market over the same period will continue to decline by approximately 50% from 2.6 million to 1.3 million.
Nikon expects their share of the pro/enthusiast market to grow from 490,000 to 700,000 from 2021 to 2025. Entry level models will be effectively discontinued. Total cameras sold will remain flat. Average selling price will increase by 20% - largely through eliminating entry level cameras and replacing them with enthusiast and professional cameras. They expect to move from 1.8 to 2.0 lenses per camera sold. They will increase the number of lenses from 29 to 50 by FY2025. (Keep in mind these forecasts are for March 31, 2025 - less than three years from now.)
DSLR cameras and F-mount lenses are expected to decline from 35% of revenue or 60 billion yen to about 7% of revenue or 14 billion yen. Mirrorless cameras and lenses are expected to grow from 55% of revenue or 95 billion yen to 80% of revenue or 160 billion yen. That means they are still going to be selling DSLR cameras and lenses over the next three years, but it is declining and R&D will focus on mirrorless. (It's worth noting the last SLR flagship was the F6, and the last flagship DSLR is the D6.) Nikon has increased Imaging R&D for imaging by 10% in the most recent year end forecast.
Video is an increasingly important segment for Nikon and other companies. The Z9 and Z30 both target major improvements in video. They specifically note the strategy of partnering with accessory makers to deliver accessories for video. They also reference the high end capabilities using MILC video and tools like NXField and NX MobileAir. Video creators have grown by 500% over the past six years so it is a segment of increasing importance. A number of professionals I know consider video more important than stills for conservation and sports photographers.
Given the lead times for cameras and lenses, you can bet the camera lineup is already scheduled through March 2025. The specific features are still to be developed, but there is a lot of reference to 3D technologies for industrial use, and that should be incorporated in photography cameras. It's not just about simple things like face and eye detection. The industrial technologies for 3D, 4D, Virtual Reality, and Mixed Reality are already being used in Nikon's own facilities. The advanced cameras are central to that strategy.
fcotterill
Well-known member
Thanks I missed these as I was out in the bush on long trip
As you summarize so well, the 2 histograms on the closing slide illustrate how Nikon sees shrinking sales of their F System products. Although sales projections over the medium term ie 3 years do not dissect further, one has to ask how much of total is projected to be F-Nikkors vs DSLRs. These will likely be high end telephotos mostly, and perhaps clearance of inventory.
And to quote (in Imaging pdf ) - this statement that spells out where Nikon Imaging is going to be soon!
"...Finally, I will speak to our earnings plan.
We will support the Nikon brand by focusing on mid/high-end mirrorless models
for professional and hobbyists and secure stable operating profit during Medium-
Term Management Plan period by further strengthening our earnings base by
FY2025."
These 3 slides are fairly explicit [pp 3-5] :
EDITED
As you summarize so well, the 2 histograms on the closing slide illustrate how Nikon sees shrinking sales of their F System products. Although sales projections over the medium term ie 3 years do not dissect further, one has to ask how much of total is projected to be F-Nikkors vs DSLRs. These will likely be high end telephotos mostly, and perhaps clearance of inventory.
And to quote (in Imaging pdf ) - this statement that spells out where Nikon Imaging is going to be soon!
"...Finally, I will speak to our earnings plan.
We will support the Nikon brand by focusing on mid/high-end mirrorless models
for professional and hobbyists and secure stable operating profit during Medium-
Term Management Plan period by further strengthening our earnings base by
FY2025."
The 3D tech is mind boggling!
These 3 slides are fairly explicit [pp 3-5] :
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fcotterill
Well-known member
We should see these planned cameras with Z9 features fairly soon
Deploy advanced features from the Z 9 across the lineup"
"The bar graph on the right indicates contraction in the overall market for digital
cameras–interchangeable lens type. However, we expect steady growth of the
market for professionals and hobbyists, including among emerging markets,
younger generations and women.
Nikon will adhere to a business model that delivers high value-added products,
mainly mirrorless, to these professionals and hobbyists.
We plan to fill out our mirrorless lineup by expanding to a more complete system
of 50+ lenses and deploying the popular advanced features present in our flagship
Z 9 model to other models, as well."
Slide #3
"For pro/hobbyists
Deploy advanced features from the Z 9 across the lineup"
"The bar graph on the right indicates contraction in the overall market for digital
cameras–interchangeable lens type. However, we expect steady growth of the
market for professionals and hobbyists, including among emerging markets,
younger generations and women.
Nikon will adhere to a business model that delivers high value-added products,
mainly mirrorless, to these professionals and hobbyists.
We plan to fill out our mirrorless lineup by expanding to a more complete system
of 50+ lenses and deploying the popular advanced features present in our flagship
Z 9 model to other models, as well."
Slide #3
P
philippe
Guest
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True but keep in mind one thing. Supply and demand. The day that they can sell 10 of one item and 5 of another and cannot meet demand, production will shift to the product people want the most. The market will decide when the change comes and in todays world it could be next year or as long as it takes the machine tools for the change to be produced and installed
There is always the incessant "I have to wait and I am unhappy" chant around everything mirrorless on every Nikon internet venue. That's demand in action.
Also remember that online in Nikon forums, the Z9 is the item that everyone demands but in the real consumer market $6,000 before batteries and lenses cameras are not the market drivers. The article is pretty clear about the competition and pricing. Trade show and Christmas 2023 or 2024 sales campaigns will be a huge factor driving a paradigm shift.
Nikon accountants are telling the world with this announcement that it's not going to be a 5 year process. The day that Nikon is losing business because they cannot deliver a high demand, high profit mirrorless body on time and have excess DSLR stock at a warehouse somewhere, a factory will be remachined. A DSLR will go out of production and a mirrorless changeover will take it's place. This news release says loud and clear that the decision has been made and the change will happen.
Until them , an austerity plan to produce and maintain parts levels for the future and meeting the decreasing demand for new DSLRs will drive what happens at existing plants. As an example, last I heard the auto industry maintains an anticipated 15 year supply of windshield glass for each new model year. After that it's time to start searching the junk yards for glass. I have no way of knowing what Nikons long range stock plans are but I know they exist.
The process has begun and people at Nikon are making decisions today about when the change will be fully implemented. It is very likely that this been on the table at Nikon board meetings since before the day the first mirrorless design was marketed.
Nikon does respond the market. The change won't be based upon emotion. It will be based upon whether an assembly line can be more profitable for investors by being used to produce the product that generated 20 and 30 percent more revenue than the product it is currently producing.
The point is, if this is an official announcement, the "near future" clock is wound up and running. This process is already happenng. It may speed up but it's not going to stop or slow down.
fcotterill
Well-known member
I read this statement that pending Z MILCs will be more affordable models with selected Z9 features - notably the AF, blackout free EVF and hopefully improved Customization options
I read it the same way - and believe it has always been the plan. Nikon's odd number flagship cameras have typically been quite innovative and led to several years worth of downstream releases with similar technology and features.
What is probably most remarkable to me is the focus Nikon is placing on exiting the entry level market completely by March 2025. The entry level camera market in 2021 is 60% of the ILC camera market, and will be declining to 30% by 2025. Nikon is using a pretty ruthless investment approach by exiting markets with low growth or no growth. In contrast, the pro and enthusiast market is growing by about 10-11%, and Nikon is expecting to grow their sales to that segment by 42%. That will increase Nikon's market share in that segment from 18.1% to 23.3%.
I think that means we'll see both FX and DX versions of the Z9 for the enthusiast segment relatively soon. From a strategy standpoint, you want to have the top products in place as the market starts to grow rather than being late and having to take share.
My camerashop told me today that Nikon will produce a last batch of D850 and then discontinue.
Great post, Eric. In regards to the last paragraph, an important point is the fact that we live in an era where a line of new math in computer code has made innovations in anything with a processor obsolete before they ever see the market. Entire generations of new computing developments never go to market because before they are released someone creates a simple to implement solution that is faster and better. Change that used to take a decade can happen in 6 months and with competiton driving change it only happens faster. I'm a D700 lover and looking at what Z9 users are holding in 2022 compared to the state of the art D700 in 2008 is an amazing example. It's an amazing world and it's great to have competition to drive innovation. Someday the camera that so many people want that will sit on tripod and all the user has to do is imagine how he wants the image to look and the camera does the rest with no user interface will probably exist. What a sad day that will be.
DPReview has an interesting article today…
photographylife.com
Should You Switch from DSLR to Mirrorless?
The viral reports from Nikkei - the ones that say Nikon is completely switching focus from DSLRs to mirrorless - are hardly news to anyone who’s followed the camera world for the last few years. Canon is in exactly the same boat. With few exceptions, camera companies have moved on from DSLR to...
photographylife.com
fcotterill
Well-known member
Very interesting times
Perhaps Nikon sees medium to high spec DX as their new entry ILCs targeting hobbyists and content creators. There's strong emphasis on video as well as stills.
However they plan to adjust the most affordable of their cameras ie "High-end Entry", these have to compete with the likes of Fuji, who are increasing their efforts toward sports and wildlife photographers and also emphasizing video performance in new APC cameras and lenses.
The recent releases of stacked sensor DX cameras are hard for Nikon to ignore. As you say they likely already have already committed to new cameras. So a Z90 may well be pending.
The graphic higher up this page comparing the DSLR vs MILC markets becomes more skewed to mirrorless when the growing influence of the video is considered.
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agrumpyoldsod
Well-known member
About today's partial coverage
This is an auto translate of www.jp.nikon.com/company/news/2022/0712_01.html"July 12, 2022 - Today, some media outlets have reported that we have withdrawn from the development of single-lens reflex cameras, but this is speculation and not announced by us. We continue to produce, sell, and support digital SLR cameras, and we hope that our customers will continue to use them with peace of mind."
Thanks for posting this... it is a great read.DPReview has an interesting article today…
Should You Switch from DSLR to Mirrorless?
The viral reports from Nikkei - the ones that say Nikon is completely switching focus from DSLRs to mirrorless - are hardly news to anyone who’s followed the camera world for the last few years. Canon is in exactly the same boat. With few exceptions, camera companies have moved on from DSLR to...
James C.
Active member
This year (2022), Nikon discontinued both of my DSLR cameras (the D5600 and D500). The D500 (with a 500mm PF lens) is my every day camera for birds and wildlife.
When Nikon comes out with a mirrorless successor to the D500, I will be willing to make the switch to mirrorless. HOWEVER, for it to be a superior successor to the D500, I think it needs to have these features:
A "nice to have" feature would be the GPS location automatically attached to each photo (taken from a person’s smartphone or watch at the time each photo is taken, so that the camera doesn’t need its own GPS circuity, thus keeping down the bulk and weight of the camera.). This could be turned on or off by the user.
A mirrorless wildlife camera like THIS, I would happily switch over to!
When Nikon comes out with a mirrorless successor to the D500, I will be willing to make the switch to mirrorless. HOWEVER, for it to be a superior successor to the D500, I think it needs to have these features:
- 15-20 FPS in RAW (14-bit)
- Silent shutter
- Up to 1/10,000 of a second shutter speed
- Bird/Animal/Human Eye AF
- Fast/accurate AF system
- EV that can go down to at least -6.0
- APS-C sensor of 24-30 MP
- Sensor shield
- Blackout-free electronic viewfinder
- Fully articulated view screen (like the D5600)
- Dual memory card slot (CFe Type B and SD)
- Lightweight (i.e., ≤ 2 pounds)
- Price $2,000 to $4,000 (US)
A "nice to have" feature would be the GPS location automatically attached to each photo (taken from a person’s smartphone or watch at the time each photo is taken, so that the camera doesn’t need its own GPS circuity, thus keeping down the bulk and weight of the camera.). This could be turned on or off by the user.
A mirrorless wildlife camera like THIS, I would happily switch over to!
I agree with most of what you've said. I think they should be able to produce a camera like that in the $3k range.
I'd be OK to match the 1/8000sec shutter of the D500 but 1/10000 would be a good nice to have.
On the AF system, I would 'like to see' a repeat of the D500 which had the D5 focus module, the new mirrorless pro Crop should have implemented the Z9 focus system.
If the new camera is a suitable FF body that will give me about 24Mpx crop mode I'd be fine too. I'm not sure how much difference in actual cost of a DX vs an FX sensor is these days. I cannot imagine it would be a thousand dollars.
Jeff
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