Thom Hogan on “something that might be called a Z9II”

[JAJohnson]

More musings from Thom Hogan regarding “something that might be called a Z9II.”

He lists the following as “low hanging fruit.”

• 5m dot or higher EVF. The natural thing would be to move to the Z6III viewfinder. That’s very low-hanging fruit. Going higher in dots or nits would still be relatively low-hanging, but requires a bit of extra work and may require more use of EXPEED’s bandwidth during composition.
• CFe 4.0 support. We have faster cards now, but the camera needs card slots that support them. This might not be as low-hanging a fruit as it first seems—at least not if you want to use all that speed—because EXPEED itself needs to support the extra PCIe lanes, and I don’t know if EXPEED7 does so directly or not.
• Fill in the missing features. Surprisingly, a Z9 after all the big firmware updates still doesn’t have HEIF, Pixel shift shooting, Nikon Imaging Cloud, and a few other things that appeared first on later, lesser cameras.
• Fix the customization. I outlined how the way to save and change configurations on the camera should work over six years ago. We still are using separate Banks and a single Save menu settings capability that is no longer anywhere close to state-of-the-art for a top end camera. A configuration-save rethink is mostly reprogramming the menu system to support it. Very low-hanging fruit, you just need some laborers to do the picking.
• Improve the existing features. Another pass on the machine learning for subject detection could improve focus, plus we should easily get things like stills-while-recording-video, and UVC direct streaming.
• Any kind of raw pre-release capture. It doesn’t matter if it’s 15 fps High efficiency, or even 10 fps Lossless compressed. While neither of those are optimal, they’re 100% better than we’ve got.
• Content authentication. Nikon was first to demonstrate this (on the original Z9), but it appears they’ll be last to ship it. This is fruit that probably will fall right off the tree if you look at it hard enough.

Can’t disagree with any of that. He also shares a list of “hard to reach fruit” and “fruit that is not yet ripe.” That, along with a list of capabilities of Canon R1 & Sony A1 II which are missing on the Z9.

I expect there will be robust commentary on Hogan’s post. Have at it BCG members!

How’s Your Fruit Hanging? | Thom Hogan

Considering the next generation of Nikon Z System cameras, particularly the Z9II

www.zsystemuser.com

 

[Replytoken]

This must have just been published. Thom usually releases his articles and posts during the week. Odd that it came out on a Sunday. Looking forward to reading it.

Thanks,

--Ken

 

[JAJohnson]

This must have just been published. Thom usually releases his articles and posts during the week. Odd that it came out on a Sunday. Looking forward to reading it.

Thanks,

--Ken

I was surprised, too, but there it was. Perhaps he wrote it over the holiday break and decided to post it today so he could move on to other things.

 

[arbitrage]

I'm not on the same page as Thom when he says he would be happy with a Z9II with just some minor updates, mostly in software and maybe a Z6III EVF added as a hardware change. No way I'd want to pay $5500 for that.

I think Nikon should just wait till EXPEED 8 is ready to go and then make the Z9II with everything it can include both hardware and software.

 

[JAJohnson]

I'm not on the same page as Thom when he says he would be happy with a Z9II with just some minor updates, mostly in software and maybe a Z6III EVF added as a hardware change. No way I'd want to pay $5500 for that.

I think Nikon should just wait till EXPEED 8 is ready to go and then make the Z9II with everything it can include both hardware and software.

His low hanging fruit list doesn’t seem like minor updates to me, but that’s subjective. He also says that if that’s all there is, the reception would likely be low key.

 

[Cameron T]

Also of note, the z9 is still actually holding it's own against sony/canon. Software updates have gone a long way with it, and I don't see Nikon as that far behind. I'd rather them take their time and get the hardware right than rush a more minor update. Eg waiting for Thoms not so low hanging fruits, at least in part.

 

[Ltgk20]

I don't expect many Nikon users to be happy with Thom's list, but I suspect it's closer to what we'll see than we'd like. The Z8/Z9 remain competitive, but so do the R5 and A1. This is likely why both the R5ii and A1ii have been received with such tepid response. I'd love to see Nikon push the limits significantly, but given that neither Sony nor Nikon could, it seems like more of a longshot than a guarantee (though here's hoping as it'll keep the pressure on the other two).

 

[kanonka]

When photographing long-neck birds (e.g. egret or heron) from a side, both A1 and Z9 reliably (like ~90% of the time) focus on a, hmm, rear end of the bird instead of an eye. Or when there is a reflection, neither camera can differentiate real bird from reflected one, even though it's literally one if/else switch in the code. Just fix subject recognition, please, and I'd take it over any other changes. Yeah, I know, we can use different AF areas and so on, but bugs like these are still very irritating.

 

[fcotterill]

The top list is feasible without EXPEED8. Unlike his following list (OP shared), the former is more feasible for Nikotas it's cost effective to milk EXPEED7 for even longer with a Coprocessor - some manner of AI chip with deep learning algorithms.

This Top list should tick off all the feature lists of tyre kickers. Upgraders/new buyers are likely to buy this camera:

• Cross type AF detection (R1)
• Eye control focus (R1)
• 40 fps (R1)
• Main subject priority (R1) or stickier subject recognition (A1 II)
• Person registry (R1)
• Stills while recording video (R1)
• 9.4m dot EVF (R1 and A1 II)
• Hot shoe accessory electronics (R1 and A1 II)
• UVC streaming directly (R1)
• Auto framing (A1 II)
• Tilt/Fully Articulating LCD (A1 II)
• 1/400 flash sync (A1 II)
• Content authentication (A1 II, R1?)

 

[fcotterill]

However Cross-type AF detection surely requires a new sensor or at least a redesign of the pixel arrangements in the existing Z9 sensor.

Nikon has had operating Global shutter technology in its industrial sensors since 2021 at least, and of course latterly in its RED video cameras.

Quad pixel focus will probably advance MILC AF into a more robust platform of high performance, in turn enabling new software features. Nikon has its patents, but only they know when this tech will be commercially viable.

 

[Ed Erkes]

When photographing long-neck birds (e.g. egret or heron) from a side, both A1 and Z9 reliably (like ~90% of the time) focus on a, hmm, rear end of the bird instead of an eye. Or when there is a reflection, neither camera can differentiate real bird from reflected one, even though it's literally one if/else switch in the code. Just fix subject recognition, please, and I'd take it over any other changes. Yeah, I know, we can use different AF areas and so on, but bugs like these are still very irritating.

This hasn't been my experience. I have both the Sony A1 and Nikon Z8. In my experience with egrets and herons, the Nikon behaves as you describe a relatively high percentage of the time, even after all the firmware updates. Using it on long-necked birds can be very frustrating at times. However, the Sony A1 performs significantly better, although it is far from perfect.

 

[tabishshaikh]

From what it looks like, Canon will still be leading in the AF area in the near future. The next version of Nikon surely needs to close this gap. Personally for me the most compelling feature to buy a newer camera system is the AF else I am quite happy with what I have now.

 

[John Navitsky]

CFe 4.0 support. We have faster cards now, but the camera needs card slots that support them. This might not be as low-hanging a fruit as it first seems—at least not if you want to use all that speed—because EXPEED itself needs to support the extra PCIe lanes, and I don’t know if EXPEED7 does so directly or not.

minor nit. it’s bus (clock) speed, not lanes. cfe-b is two lanes in both cases, it’s just with v4 it runs twice as fast.

that said, we don’t know for sure if it even uses two lans. if you look at devices like the pi, it supports nvme with one lane.

and we haven’t observed afaik, any evidence camera speeds exceed what can be done in one lane. at least for stills.

 

[John Navitsky]

features needed for me to move

* raw pre capture
* c2pa

anything else will be gravy (that said, nikon, feel free to give me that in an fw update, i promise i'll buy the z9ii anyway)

 

[Alistair]

Aside from the first two, these are candidates for firmware.

 

[Ad Astra]

My past experience was with the D800 series, The D800 when it came was great but had a few rough edges that were sorted out in the D810. The D850 took the features up a notch.

For the Z9 we have had several major firmware updates for free that have exceeded what the D810 and D850 added to the initial D800. I am grateful for these free firmware updates.

My updated wish list for the Z9II is as follows:

• Pre-cpature raw (a must for the next gen camera), if it could be done in the Z9 with firmware I think we would have seen it by now so looks like a hardware power or storage problem to solve.
• Open gate - why should Panasonic and Fuji users have all the fun. Could be done in firmware.
• Zebras on stills (should be easy to port from Video). Could be done in firmware
• USB-C port able to write to external drive (Nikon need to take the whole workflow into account). I would assume this would need new hardware e.g. dual USB-C port like on the Z8.
• Ability to preview LUTs on video footage (thinking of those nice Red LUTs). Could be done in firmware.
• Golden oldie - Ability to lock banks so restarting camera goes back to original Bank settings. I don’t know anybody who likes banks. Could be done in firmware, but it is too much of a change people would complain so would need to be part of a new camera release.
• Global shutter – I think just a sensor faster read out would be sufficient to cover the small fraction of rolling shutter issues that remain. Would require new hardware.
• Neural processor along side current processor, will need new hardware but to get the most from AI subject detection will need an NPU.
• Cross focus points on sensor, Olympus / OMD Solutions have had this for decades. Will need new sensor hardware.
• Focus Point VR from the Zf, looks to be hardware related.

I am not fussed about Pixel shift, I have had this on my Olympus cameras for decades and not found it useful for my type of photography.

For sure Nikon will be well on the way in the R&D cycle for developing the Z9II whether it will be an incremental update D810 style or a big bang new features update I don’t know. Nikon could produce a Z9 v 6.0 firmware to keep the Z9 current for another year whilst they develop the mark II with ground breaking new features or maybe the mark II is well into the R&D cycle and will be announced end of 2025.

 

[Lee R]

Honestly I'd rather see them pursue some of the low hanging fruit with further firmware updates and work on a true successor camera. I have a feeling a lukewarm Z9ii and follow-on models down the line will result in far less hardware sales. We are now in a time when these cameras are already doing things very well.

That low hanging fruit list would not sell a camera to me personally and I'd skip a generation. I don't think Nikon wants to get in that situation for sales.

As it stands the Z9 is a solid firmware update (with the Z8) away from still being competitive with Sony and Canons latest iterations. Just add RAW pre-capture and refine the AF while selling them for less and it's competitive.

Dropping an A1ii style *new* camera that looks like a very expensive firmware update probably won't sell very well. They need to take more time and release a real updated camera that pushes all of the brands forward.

 

[Unscript]

The list of low-hanging fruit is cool, but it isn't about image quality; it's only convenience and UX, except maybe a better subject detection and focus with a pre-learned neural net. Nothing ground-breaking overall. Would that be it for the next iteration of a flagship camera?

I'd be more excited about dynamic range and faster electronic shutter. And I'm sure some would be pleased to see REDCODE raw for interoperability (this may indeed still take time because RED's acquisition is recent and a new chip isn't made overnight).

It's funny the author mentions pre-release capture, since we were just discussing that in another thread. I'm don't have a lot of experience; is it obvious to more experienced photographers why it's only available for high-speed frame capture and not slower capture modes? For example, if I was waiting for the right instant to take a shot of a wildlife scene, in raw at 5-10 FPS, I'd appreciate that feature in case I'm too late. For sport events, it's even more obvious, but maybe raw is not used very often in that case?

 

[groob]

I'm not on the same page as Thom when he says he would be happy with a Z9II with just some minor updates, mostly in software and maybe a Z6III EVF added as a hardware change. No way I'd want to pay $5500 for that.

I think Nikon should just wait till EXPEED 8 is ready to go and then make the Z9II with everything it can include both hardware and software.

IMO, Nikon has to release a camera with usable pre-capture, and it seems clear that will be the next iteration of the Z9. I’d support whatever the Z9ii is, so long as it has a good pre-capture function.

 

[JAJohnson]

For sport events, it's even more obvious, but maybe raw is not used very often in that case?

The handful of sports-oriented photojournalists that I've spoken to over the past decade all shoot in jpeg because it's easiest for their editors to perform minimal adjustments and have art ready for web and social media. Only one of them worked at the highest level (MLB & NHL). He was under huge pressure to have images to his editors within minutes after something something noteworthy happened during the game. I'm sure Nikon's implementation of pre-release capture capability was, in part, in response to that need.

 

[Lee R]

The handful of sports-oriented photojournalists that I've spoken to over the past decade all shoot in jpeg because it's easiest for their editors to perform minimal adjustments and have art ready for web and social media. Only one of them worked at the highest level (MLB & NHL). He was under huge pressure to have images to his editors within minutes after something something noteworthy happened during the game. I'm sure Nikon's implementation of pre-release capture capability was, in part, in response to that need.

It makes a lot of sense for pro sports coupled with a very fast way to get them off the camera and to the editor via a fast connection so they can be on web ASAP after a good play.

Nobody cares about maximizing those images via RAW and careful editing.

I’d argue wildlife photography is probably one of the small niches where JPEG is tough to get the job done for precapture, but not for a lot of things for paid work. Modern expeed 7 with good color profile settings really does produce good SOOC results for many subjects.

Even for wildlife the average person looking at a print could care less if it was captured in JPEG or RAW if it’s an interesting image nor would they likely notice the difference. Most people are perfectly content with cell phone images after all.

 

[fcotterill]

The list of low-hanging fruit is cool, but it isn't about image quality; it's only convenience and UX, except maybe a better subject detection and focus with a pre-learned neural net. Nothing ground-breaking overall. Would that be it for the next iteration of a flagship camera?

I'd be more excited about dynamic range and faster electronic shutter. And I'm sure some would be pleased to see REDCODE raw for interoperability (this may indeed still take time because RED's acquisition is recent and a new chip isn't made overnight).

It's funny the author mentions pre-release capture, since we were just discussing that in another thread. I'm don't have a lot of experience; is it obvious to more experienced photographers why it's only available for high-speed frame capture and not slower capture modes? For example, if I was waiting for the right instant to take a shot of a wildlife scene, in raw at 5-10 FPS, I'd appreciate that feature in case I'm too late. For sport events, it's even more obvious, but maybe raw is not used very often in that case?

Jpgs are usually preferred in high profile sports where the priority is to network images to editors without delay.
PreCapture at high fps capture the critical moment eg ball games

Same focusing problem on all mirrorless cameras?

I read in several threads that mirrorless cameras have a difficult time focusing on small objects, birds specifically, at times. This is most apparent when focusing first in the distance, then trying to re-focus on an object that is closer to the photographer. I have never noticed this on my...

bcgforums.com

Few if any wildlife photographers bother with jpg format, but high fps is often essential to capture nuances of behaviours including wing position, pollinators, predators etc. 20 fps RAW is significantly better than 14fps for these situations; in fact 60 fps and higher capture bursts with PreCapture - all RAW - would be very useful in more situations if/when available.

What new features would you want in a Z8/9ii

I have to assume there is a second generation Z9 coming out of course followed by a second generation Z8. The Z9 for me was a major game changer because it allowed a completely new approach to wildlife photography I never used to shoot in bursts but now I do that routinely. So what changes...

bcgforums.com

 

[Unscript]

Yes, it makes sense about the JPEG pre-release capture. It must be much easier for Nikon to focus on the demand coming from the dominant part of the market. Ah well, hopefully they'll expand that functionality one day.

 

[John Navitsky]

The handful of sports-oriented photojournalists that I've spoken to over the past decade all shoot in jpeg because it's easiest for their editors to perform minimal adjustments and have art ready for web and social media. Only one of them worked at the highest level (MLB & NHL). He was under huge pressure to have images to his editors within minutes after something something noteworthy happened during the game. I'm sure Nikon's implementation of pre-release capture capability was, in part, in response to that need.

i don't doubt that, however i suspect the existing pre-capture feature relies somehow on the current design of the imaging pipelines. more specifically, i have a hunch they are actually leveraging the evf stream somehow which, afaik, basically is a jpg render of what's on the sensor.... for up to 120fps.

i also suspect nikon may have some super optimized jpg rendering in hw or super optimized jpg rendering code.

 

[JAJohnson]

Yes, it makes sense about the JPEG pre-release capture. It must be much easier for Nikon to focus on the demand coming from the dominant part of the market. Ah well, hopefully they'll expand that functionality one day.

I don’t think it’s so much that sports photojournalists are a dominant part of the market but it’s that they are visible and therefore influential. Nikon, Canon, and Sony work diligently to cater their needs

The approach Thom Hogan describes (HE* or Lossless at 10 or 15 fps for pre-capture) I think is what might be possible via firmware.