Thom Hogan on “something that might be called a Z9II”

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Raw precapture is the single change I would like to see most in my Z9 and Z8s. (Of course there are many other improvements that would be nice.) I’d take HE* and something less than 30 fps if needed, if the change comes in new firmware. I can’t see buying a Z9II or Z8II as an upgrade without raw precapture. And if it comes in a new camera, rather than a firmware update, I think the performance bar would be higher. I think I’d want at least 30 fps with HE* in a new camera.
 
I don’t think it’s so much that sports photojournalists are a dominant part of the market but it’s that they are visible and therefore influential. Nikon, Canon, and Sony work diligently to cater their needs
and i think we can generalize to just photojournalists in general. i think we're not too far off to where a journalist clicks the shutter, the camera marks it with c2pa and it's uploaded to the cloud where the editors will pick it up and publish it.

and jpg is probably optimal for that workflow, not only because it's fast, but also because it's ready-to-go.
 
Honestly I'd rather see them pursue some of the low hanging fruit with further firmware updates and work on a true successor camera. I have a feeling a lukewarm Z9ii and follow-on models down the line will result in far less hardware sales. We are now in a time when these cameras are already doing things very well.

That low hanging fruit list would not sell a camera to me personally and I'd skip a generation. I don't think Nikon wants to get in that situation for sales.

As it stands the Z9 is a solid firmware update (with the Z8) away from still being competitive with Sony and Canons latest iterations. Just add RAW pre-capture and refine the AF while selling them for less and it's competitive.

Dropping an A1ii style *new* camera that looks like a very expensive firmware update probably won't sell very well. They need to take more time and release a real updated camera that pushes all of the brands forward.
Completely agree with this. I would much rather Nikon focus on software for a couple of years. Even if we have to pay for major release.
I suspect that expeed 7 still has good headroom. 30fps raw and pre-capture should be feasible. Just drop the bit rate down a la Sony and others.
 
I don’t read too much into Thoms post, but I do agree that developing a new SoC like and Expeed 8 is not cheap especially when it’s the current Z9 owners you need on side to buy a new flagship.

Personally I think FW 6.0 will bring some updates that will help keep the Z9 as the flagship it needs to be.

I can’t see many photographers shelling out about 6k for only minor hardware updates.

Ultimately only Nikon knows what can be achieved in FW
 
I don’t think it’s so much that sports photojournalists are a dominant part of the market but it’s that they are visible and therefore influential. Nikon, Canon, and Sony work diligently to cater their needs

The approach Thom Hogan describes (HE* or Lossless at 10 or 15 fps for pre-capture) I think is what might be possible via firmware.
Well, so they dominate vocally. ;)

I found these survey results, for what they're worth. The number of participants isn't huge (and they're mostly in the US), but it should be more than enough to be relevant. Apparently, portraits and weddings are leading, sports and events being only in 4th and 5th position (disregarding phone cameras, so not the results at the top of the page).


The demographics of DSLR, mirrorless and phone cameras is interesting, too, but I think the results of that type of survey can change dramatically depending on who answers if it includes a category for phone cameras. Fortunately, it's only a small portion of the participants, and it seems to involve only people really interested in photography rather than anyone who owns a camera (which is everyone with a smartphone... so almost everyone).
 
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As for me, I've perfectly happy with my Z9 and Z8; to the point that I'm likely soon giving my D850 to one of my children. I will, however, keep my D700 and its antiquated CF Flash memory cards.

And I'm also perfectly happy with what seems to be Nikon's emphasis on designing, producing and bringing great new lenses into the market!
 
Totally agree with this. I will definitely not buy a camera just for a few added features when my existing camera is already good enough. I would much rather prefer a major firmware update for which i wouldn’t mind paying..say new AF features, pre-capture in HE/HE*, higher FPS in HE formats and I don’t mind paying another 1000-1500$ depending on the features.

Honestly I'd rather see them pursue some of the low hanging fruit with further firmware updates and work on a true successor camera. I have a feeling a lukewarm Z9ii and follow-on models down the line will result in far less hardware sales. We are now in a time when these cameras are already doing things very well.

That low hanging fruit list would not sell a camera to me personally and I'd skip a generation. I don't think Nikon wants to get in that situation for sales.

As it stands the Z9 is a solid firmware update (with the Z8) away from still being competitive with Sony and Canons latest iterations. Just add RAW pre-capture and refine the AF while selling them for less and it's competitive.

Dropping an A1ii style *new* camera that looks like a very expensive firmware update probably won't sell very well. They need to take more time and release a real updated camera that pushes all of the brands forward.
 
I think the big revolution in photography going forward is to master high dynamic range.

I have been around high dynamic range ever since they introduced it in TV's. Until recently I have not been particularly happy with how high dynamic range has worked. I think it is because the existing screens and software do not do all that good a job of making high dynamic range palatable and interesting.

More recently however HDR has gotten to Lightroom as a feature you can explore during development. The problem of course is you can't see the high dynamic range image on most screens. HOWEVER, the latest Retina screen in the MacBook Pro's changes all that. I recommend that if you get hold of one of those, or if you find a good HDR monitor for PC, try running some of your images through HDR adjustment. When done right the results are breathtaking.

Of course mainstreaming HDR requires a lot of things, which of course means spending a lot of money on new equipment. Just what the photography and video companies need, a large new market.

To bring HDR fully into the mainstream the following must happen:

1. You need quality HDR screens in a massive way so most of the public can actually view these stunning images.
2. Some method needs to be found to print HDR images. This might mean using light boxes of LCD screens for images. Printing technology is way behind in capability.
3. You need cameras capable of taking photos natively in HDR. While Nikon Z9's can photograph in HDR, I learned the hard way recently that they only do that by taking two sequential images that can later be combined in post. The problem with that is you can only shoot HDR with a tripod, on a completely stationary subject. Obviously not a good wildlife tool.

I think it is pretty clear that you will need new equipment to come up with a true HDR camera. Judging from recent posts on this forum,, it is apparent that Nikon has been working with some major advances in sensor technology that will greatly speed things up. That sort of technology should make true HDR cameras possible.

I was walking along a beach earlier this week near my new house during a rare sunny day in the Pacific Northwest rainy season. I was impressed with the sunlight glistening on the water. I think it is clear to me that we as human beings live in a high dynamic range environment and we would respond to images that can fully replicate that range.

If I am right about this HDR is going to be a technique for the future. But a lot has to happen before this becomes a reality. There will never be a market for HDR images if the public does not have screens that are capable of viewing these images.

Having played around with this recently, I can tell you that HDR handled properly can really make images pop. I was very impressed with the potential.

Apple is typically in the lead or near the lead in content creator screens. The Apple Studio monitor as fine as it is does not do HDR. You have to spend 5 grand for their 6k pro monitor to get there. Yet they obviously know how to do it, you can get it today in a MacBook Pro retina screen.

Doubt me? Get a decent HDR screen and run some of your existing images through HDR in Lightroom. Let me know if you think I am onto something.
 
Re HDR...I've been shooting HDR video for a couple years now with my Z9 and since I started that and needed to acquire a display that would serve as a suitable HDR monitor, I've also been using Adobe's HDR tools in Lightroom and Photoshop for HDR stills...and the Z9 and Z8 can absolutely do so with a single image. No need to take multiple exposures...shoot in Raw with a Z9 or Raw or HEIF with a Z8 and process for HDR in Lightroom or Photoshop. The images are absolutely stunning on a calibrated OLED display.

Anyone viewing on a fairly recent iPhone or Android phone has a surprisingly HDR display in the palm of their hand. I got tired of sharing SDR content to phones via text messages or attached files that looked inferior to HDR images taken with the phones themselves.

I rarely shoot video that isn't acquired in a mode that can be processed as HDR and delivered as HDR content to YT or Vimeo. NRaw NLog or H.265 10-bit NLog will do just fine. Again, anyone with a fairly recent 4K TV or phone can view the content in HDR mode, as well as most recent mid to upper end Macbooks and Mac desktops also have a display suitable for HDR content, though not as capable with some extreme highlights.

Editing HDR and understanding the different formats is entering a new world and requires some work, but it's well worth it and the critical mass for viewing is just about there. I'll be curious to see what comes out of CES this year.

Printing...that's going to be a challenge to take full advantage of HDR qualities. The benefit of HDR comes at the high end of an image for the viewer...and extra 3-stops of scene dynamic range, all gained at the high end. That's been the challenge for displays, having high enough native contrast ratio to not wash out the blacks to get the highlights...and the same goes true for traditional prints. HDR can be done with transparencies, but when you go to that mode, you might as well use a flat panel display.

It's exciting and much will change over the next few years, but the tools are there to dive in now.
 
MoroPixel thanks for your comments.

I have been taking my RAW shots and processing them as HDR in LR. I am observing it is better not to go to extremes because you get exaggerated results. But with reasonable moderation things really pop. This HDR really can supercharge an image by greatly expanding the bright end,
 
MoroPixel thanks for your comments.

I have been taking my RAW shots and processing them as HDR in LR. I am observing it is better not to go to extremes because you get exaggerated results. But with reasonable moderation things really pop. This HDR really can supercharge an image by greatly expanding the bright end,
By the way, what is practical use of HDR images? Printing is out of question as the best paper can only do ~6.5 stops. Monitors of most people looking at the images online are still limited to SDR. So, what to do with that image, other than looking at it yourself on HDR monitor? The reason I'm asking is that I was touting the idea going same route, but cannot see the real use of it.
 
By the way, what is practical use of HDR images? Printing is out of question as the best paper can only do ~6.5 stops. Monitors of most people looking at the images online are still limited to SDR. So, what to do with that image, other than looking at it yourself on HDR monitor? The reason I'm asking is that I was touting the idea going same route, but cannot see the real use of it.
Quite simply, most of my family and friends view the images I share via text and email on cell phones or tablets which have HDR displays. For broader distribution of personal videos that I create those go to YT or Vimeo almost exclusively in HDR, whether shot on one of my cameras, action cam or cell phones. Those videos, often of places I visit in the course of my travels, are typically viewed on a home HDR TV or cell phone/tablet. I’ve gotten a lot of compliments on how life-like many are…partly due to being 4K and also HDR. Many have HDR capabilities and don’t know it.

Also of note, Instagram is supporting HDR now for stills, as well as video. It's also fairly easy to put together an HDR video slideshow of stills as a way of sharing still images to a wider audience than is generally available to standalone still. As an aside, I was never a fan of the multi-shot HDR stills, 90% of which were overdone and looked cartoonish....but that's just my own aesthetic and apparently, many liked it.
 
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All that has to happen to get HDR to really take off is for the average person to have access to a decent HDR screen.

Screens get better with time. I remember when HD was new and it was a big deal to finally get a HD tv set. Now 4k is commonly available and it it not all that difficult to add decent HDR too a 4k screen.

Most picture sharing these days is via internet anyway and print media is less and less being used.

Once there is a critical mass of HDR screens it becomes possible for us to pass HDR images around. Doing a decent job of creation will result in stunning images compared to what we have been seeing. At that point interest will catch fire just as HD tv captured the audience and HD became the norm, just as 4k is now taking off.

Progress is inevitable. Just a matter of time.
 
[Edited for clarity] According to Nikon's traditions, assuming these still apply, a new flagship Nikon ILC introduces a new sensor, radical Autofocus revision and the new hardware and firmware to optimize the functionality of the camera in the most prominent, technically demanding genres of photography.

The D4s, for example, did not update the sensor, so arguably a Z9 II could augment the existing hardware with more buffer space as well as an AI processor, and Z6 III EVF. It will then probably be followed up with a new sequence of Firmware upgrades as utilization of this improved hardware platform is maximized. A Z9 III then gets the new sensor and EXPEED8.

Photojournalism, Studio and Professional Sports have always been the primary customer base of flagship DSLRs and this still applies to the Z9. However, Nikon obviously rates cinematography as extremely important for its Imaging Division. Thus , the Z9 departed from the flagship tradition of 20mp FX primarily for action photography. 8K RAW needs at minimum a 34 mp sensor. However, improved sensor design has also reduced the barrier to optimizing higher resolution sensor noise in low light.

Remarkably, the Nikon engineers designing cameras - equally lenses - also recognize the importance of the wildlife photography market. So Z flagships are also targeting these customers. The launch Marketing of the Z9 certainly promoted the camera's strengths for wildlife photography.

 
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All that has to happen to get HDR to really take off is for the average person to have access to a decent HDR screen.

Screens get better with time. I remember when HD was new and it was a big deal to finally get a HD tv set. Now 4k is commonly available and it it not all that difficult to add decent HDR too a 4k screen.

Most picture sharing these days is via internet anyway and print media is less and less being used.

Once there is a critical mass of HDR screens it becomes possible for us to pass HDR images around. Doing a decent job of creation will result in stunning images compared to what we have been seeing. At that point interest will catch fire just as HD tv captured the audience and HD became the norm, just as 4k is now taking off.

Progress is inevitable. Just a matter of time.
We need windows to update its picture viewer to support HDR.
We need Adobe to allow us to save RAW images editing in HDR to HEIF.
 
By Nikon traditions, assuming these still apply, a new flagship Nikon ILC introduced a new sensor, radical Autofocus revision and the new hardware and firmware to optimize the functionality of the camera in different genres of photography.

The D4s for example did not update the sensor, so arguably a Z9 II could augment the existing hardware with more buffer space as well as an AI processor, and Z6 III EVF. It will then probably be followed up with a new sequence of Firmware upgrades as utilization of this improved hardware platform is maximized. A Z9 III then gets the new sensor and EXPEED8.

Photojournalism, studio and Professional Sports have always been the primary customer base of flagship DSLRs and this still applies to the Z9. However, Nikon obviously rates cinematography as extremely important for its Imaging Division. Thus , the Z9 departed from the flagship tradition of 20mp FX primarily for action photography. 8K RAW needs at minimum a 34 mp sensor. However, improved sensor design has also reduced the barrier to optimizing higher resolution sensor noise in low light.

Remarkably, the Nikon engineers designing cameras - equally lenses - also recognize the importance of the wildlife photography market. So Z flagships are also targeting these customers. The launch Marketing of the Z9 certainly promoted the camera's strengths for wildlife photography.

I could see Nikon also bringing a red global sensor into the Z9ii at higher megapixels than the Sony A9iii and making a camera that surpasses that one while keeping the stacked 45mp in a future Z8 variant or Z7iii.

Having 35-38 mp global at 120fps would be the advancement people would like to see then fill in a faster Z8ii that’s a modest advancement at a good price point under that camera.
 
I could see Nikon also bringing a red global sensor into the Z9ii at higher megapixels than the Sony A9iii and making a camera that surpasses that one while keeping the stacked 45mp in a future Z8 variant or Z7iii.

Having 35-38 mp global at 120fps would be the advancement people would like to see then fill in a faster Z8ii that’s a modest advancement at a good price point under that camera.
With some modifications (size), that's the sensor in the Raptor XL. But the cost of the sensor alone probably exceeds the price of two Z9 bodies. The XL retails for $45k.

The more I learn about the A9iii, the more impressed I am. I think the high MP version of that, when it comes out will power the Z9iii and in the meantime Nikon will use the same sensor in the Z9.
 
With some modifications (size), that's the sensor in the Raptor XL. But the cost of the sensor alone probably exceeds the price of two Z9 bodies. The XL retails for $45k.

The more I learn about the A9iii, the more impressed I am. I think the high MP version of that, when it comes out will power the Z9iii and in the meantime Nikon will use the same sensor in the Z9.
It could be an economy of scale issue with the RED sensor which Nikon may be able to solve with the Z9 selling more units. RED probably sells a very small number of units per year. I believe that sensor is made by Tower Jazz who also made the sensors in other Nikon DSLRs in the past so a larger volume order may drastically bring that cost down.

The Sony A9iii is an impressive camera and if Nikon wants to prove that they can make first rate cameras without Sony dependence using that RED sensor would send that message.
 
It could be an economy of scale issue with the RED sensor which Nikon may be able to solve with the Z9 selling more units. RED probably sells a very small number of units per year. I believe that sensor is made by Tower Jazz who also made the sensors in other Nikon DSLRs in the past so a larger volume order may drastically bring that cost down.

The Sony A9iii is an impressive camera and if Nikon wants to prove that they can make first rate cameras without Sony dependence using that RED sensor would send that message.
I think you are correct. It's actually a Forza Sillicon chip, but Tower fabs it. Not sure what rights to it Nikon picked up when they acquired Red. Would love to see something like that in a sub $10k body.
 
More musings from Thom Hogan regarding “something that might be called a Z9II.”

He lists the following as “low hanging fruit.”
  • 5m dot or higher EVF. The natural thing would be to move to the Z6III viewfinder. That’s very low-hanging fruit. Going higher in dots or nits would still be relatively low-hanging, but requires a bit of extra work and may require more use of EXPEED’s bandwidth during composition.
  • CFe 4.0 support. We have faster cards now, but the camera needs card slots that support them. This might not be as low-hanging a fruit as it first seems—at least not if you want to use all that speed—because EXPEED itself needs to support the extra PCIe lanes, and I don’t know if EXPEED7 does so directly or not.
  • Fill in the missing features. Surprisingly, a Z9 after all the big firmware updates still doesn’t have HEIF, Pixel shift shooting, Nikon Imaging Cloud, and a few other things that appeared first on later, lesser cameras.
  • Fix the customization. I outlined how the way to save and change configurations on the camera should work over six years ago. We still are using separate Banks and a single Save menu settings capability that is no longer anywhere close to state-of-the-art for a top end camera. A configuration-save rethink is mostly reprogramming the menu system to support it. Very low-hanging fruit, you just need some laborers to do the picking.
  • Improve the existing features. Another pass on the machine learning for subject detection could improve focus, plus we should easily get things like stills-while-recording-video, and UVC direct streaming.
  • Any kind of raw pre-release capture. It doesn’t matter if it’s 15 fps High efficiency, or even 10 fps Lossless compressed. While neither of those are optimal, they’re 100% better than we’ve got.
  • Content authentication. Nikon was first to demonstrate this (on the original Z9), but it appears they’ll be last to ship it. This is fruit that probably will fall right off the tree if you look at it hard enough.
Can’t disagree with any of that. He also shares a list of “hard to reach fruit” and “fruit that is not yet ripe.” That, along with a list of capabilities of Canon R1 & Sony A1 II which are missing on the Z9.

I expect there will be robust commentary on Hogan’s post. Have at it BCG members!

The one improvement that would send me over the moon would be precapture Raw at 20fps or higher. I would purchase a new model for that feature alone.
 
I’m a winter sports photographer currently shooting 2 Z9’s and recently shot an event with the new R1
Which performed flawlessly
My wishlist is short though and yes I am one of the few sports guys who shoots raw all the time so here my short list

30FPS raw
Raw Precapture
At least a 5mp EVF
and
Of course further enhancement with subject detection
 
1. You need quality HDR screens in a massive way so most of the public can actually view these stunning images.
2. Some method needs to be found to print HDR images. This might mean using light boxes of LCD screens for images. Printing technology is way behind in capability.
3. You need cameras capable of taking photos natively in HDR. While Nikon Z9's can photograph in HDR, I learned the hard way recently that they only do that by taking two sequential images that can later be combined in post. The problem with that is you can only shoot HDR with a tripod, on a completely stationary subject. Obviously not a good wildlife tool.
A few fallacies here:
1. Taking HDR shots handheld is easy, been doing it for years. Assuming of course that your shutter speed is high enough. Simply set the camera for high speed burst and bracketing. A set of brackets can happen faster than you can blink.
2. Many cameras can do 14 bit capture. HDR monitors are usually 10, 12 or 16 bit, so 14 bit should handle all but the 16 bit.
3. The human eye can't distinguish more than 8 bits. The brain can take in a scene and come up with a composite that is greater than 8 bit.
 
A few fallacies here:
1. Taking HDR shots handheld is easy, been doing it for years. Assuming of course that your shutter speed is high enough. Simply set the camera for high speed burst and bracketing. A set of brackets can happen faster than you can blink.
2. Many cameras can do 14 bit capture. HDR monitors are usually 10, 12 or 16 bit, so 14 bit should handle all but the 16 bit.
3. The human eye can't distinguish more than 8 bits. The brain can take in a scene and come up with a composite that is greater than 8 bit.
When I had the Z9 set to take HDR images it would not allow me to do bursts. The HDR setting locked out burst shooting.
 
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