Well Sh*t just got real...now what to do?

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Fro has some DNGs


They don't look too bad, some look really good in fact. The thing is, if someone had something with wildlife I could tell instantly since I'm used to those scenarios.
 
It's tough to say, I think pretty close although if I had to place a bet I'd say the D850 is still maybe a touch better. However, without testing with the same targets it's really hard to say. Once I test it myself, there's an equally good chance that it'll be better than the D850/Z7ii. In theory, it should be with the sensor they're using.

Plus, I'm really looking at the out of focus areas - when I look at the box itself, it looks fantastic. The thing is, the box is really a poor test target - you need something with detail (I use a feather donated by a local duck) to see when noise overwhelms fine detail. The box just done't include that kind of detail.

Let's put it this way - I'm not canceling my order :)
Good! I’ll keep my preorder as well. I guess worst case I sell it but really hope it’s the game changer I’m hoping it is!
 
It’s the old saying you got to pay to play lol. But if you can’t or don’t want to spend $20k then does it really matter how great it is? It’s a personal choice for sure but even if Nikon comes out with a camera as good as the a1 it’s also going to be $6,500. That’s a lot more than any of the Nikon cameras you mentioned. Would you spend that for a Nikon body? You’ll also need/want the native lenses to get that performance, that’s more money. Are you willing to buy the new Z glass?
I only bring this up because at that point the camera may say Nikon but you’re switching systems anyway. There is no free lunch.
My initial plan is to get the a1, already ordered and paid for and try it with the 200-600 which gets delivered today along with the grip, extra battery, memory card reader, 1.4 tele. I dropped $10k. If I like it then I’ll keep it. I still plan on using the D850 with my short glass that I don’t need the new wiz bang eye af and speed. Maybe over time I’ll replace the short stuff to Sony but for now the Nikon does all of that work perfectly.
I guess we all have priorities and until the a1 I hadn’t felt compelled to try anything else. I am in the camp I think Nikon is going to be 2-3 years to match Sony today and by then I suspect Sony has moved the ball further down the field. One issue with Nikon using Sony sensors and Sony selling cameras is I suspect Nikon isn’t going to have access to the newest and greatest sensors. It is likely Sony is going to keep them behind by a couple of years. It’s smart business and it’s how Canon could likely end up winning.
It’s the old saying you got to pay to play lol. But if you can’t or don’t want to spend $20k then does it really matter how great it is? It’s a personal choice for sure but even if Nikon comes out with a camera as good as the a1 it’s also going to be $6,500. That’s a lot more than any of the Nikon cameras you mentioned. Would you spend that for a Nikon body? You’ll also need/want the native lenses to get that performance, that’s more money. Are you willing to buy the new Z glass?
I only bring this up because at that point the camera may say Nikon but you’re switching systems anyway. There is no free lunch.
My initial plan is to get the a1, already ordered and paid for and try it with the 200-600 which gets delivered today along with the grip, extra battery, memory card reader, 1.4 tele. I dropped $10k. If I like it then I’ll keep it. I still plan on using the D850 with my short glass that I don’t need the new wiz bang eye af and speed. Maybe over time I’ll replace the short stuff to Sony but for now the Nikon does all of that work perfectly.
I guess we all have priorities and until the a1 I hadn’t felt compelled to try anything else. I am in the camp I think Nikon is going to be 2-3 years to match Sony today and by then I suspect Sony has moved the ball further down the field. One issue with Nikon using Sony sensors and Sony selling cameras is I suspect Nikon isn’t going to have access to the newest and greatest sensors. It is likely Sony is going to keep them behind by a couple of years. It’s smart business and it’s how Canon could likely end up winning.
I wouldnt spend the $6500 for the Nikon equivalent either...it’s so far beyond what I need that it isn’t worth it...and you’re right, going all in Z is changing systems but I’m not gonna do that either...doesn’t make sense for my needs, wants, and output usage. As I said...for me it’s a bang for the buck thing...I could actually easily spend the 20K...but it doesn’t make sense anymore than the 70K or whatever it is Tesla makes sense over the 30K Mazda 3 I just got to replace our RV tow vehicle. I’m not sure that Sony will deliberately keep Nikon behind in sensors...I assume Nikon designs their own and Sony just fabs them and the part of Sony that makes sensors is happy with the business...just like Samsung is perfectly happy to make parts for Apple.
 
Many myths about sensors, including the regular one that all camera companies rely only on crumbs off Sony's table (R&D). It's an opaque industry but some claim to be privy to the engineers in the know https://bythom.com/newsviews/the-image-sensor-industry.html
And it's well known Nikon designs at least some of its sensors, as in D5 - Imaging Resource published a detailed geek interview a few years back on Nikon's R&D sensor lab
 
Well here you go! This is why you don’t listen to the Tony’s of the world. An actual wildlife photographer using the a1.
I'm still sold. My pre-order was the first in line at my local shop. I learned my lesson with online stores (B&H) when I ordered the 500 PF on release and waited 13 months for it. I hope the local store was the right decision, because these are surely going to be back-ordered for some time.
 
I've studied 5 vids covering bird eye AF now.

Here's my summary; the data is below.

There are 3 instances of tracking in Phan's, inc. one on the eye and one on the shoulder of the Peregrine Falcon. No one else got to tracking.

One of the 3 instances of BIF got a lock - a gull with an eye clearly contrasted against the head, a panning shot in good light.

With one paddling water bird side-on the lock kept jumping around.

Static birds are likely to get a lock if there's a clear eye in view and nothing closer in the AF area. Where close-ups are given, the focus is sharp.


Details

Christopher Dodds
Promising, but with a perched bird focus jumped between eye and shoulder.

DPreview in fairly dull light
Static bird: constantly jumps between eye and feathers. You have to start with the AF area on the eye.

Alex Phan
Has good light; with birds at a distance mostly with contrasting eye and face, it does well.
Cormorants moving on their feet: got eye lock and briefly tracking.
Panning sequence of gull IF, got it sometimes.
In the first still Osprey sequence which is relatively close - when AF is on the head it mostly locks on the black band on the face rather than the eye.
In the Osprey nest sequence with a still bird square-on it gets a lock that's lost when the bird takes off.
Perched Peregrine: did well to get a lock from the rear, and tracking once on the eye from the rear and once on a shoulder.

Julia Trotti
Got an eye lock on a static Galah but lost it when the bird took off. On and off a perched Kookaburra (eye in shadow).

fototrainer
No BIF.
Grooming duck from rear: got beak or shoulder but with a clear side-on view of the head, got a lock. 2nd such view it failed for a bit then locked. 3rd rear view it got the tail then the head.
Robin: focused without boxes.
Grey bird behind branch, side-on: took some time. Then lost it. Then got it (with Spot?).
Gold, white and black bird in shadows (dark eye in dark face) but no obstruction: got it.
Side-on grey and orange Robin? got it. Lost to twig. Regained. Clear eye contrast in face.
Same bird 3/4 view pointed away , got it.
Bird looking forward and down: failed.
On the ground, forward looking: took a second but got there.
On ground side-on: fine.
On ground, forward 3/4s, took a sec and locked. Lost but regained when bird bobbed to eat.
Bird turned 3/4 away and small box shrank and locked on the sliver of eye visible.
Dusky Moorhen (?) moving side-on: kept centering and losing it.
Quality: locks were usually sharp

James Gan
Over the shoulder of a shivering bird got a lock.


Conclusion
Where the feature would be useful is getting the eye of a close BIF and not the wing. This wasn't tested in any of these vids. The scenarios used in these tests would work fine with current methods except the over-the-shoulder shots.
 
An f8 DOF is reliable for a bird on a stick. You don't need bird eye AF.

You see where fototrainer has something else in Zone AF area, the branch or the frond that competed for the lock, then it's unreliable. You want Zone for composition but Touch AF or focus and recompose work better in these cases.

His Robin, if that's what it was, was very obliging and hung around. Wild Robins in my part of the world don't.

So many of the successes in the vids aren't difficult to achieve anyway and would make boring images.
 
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What do you mean by this? Are you talking about the MILC PDAF issue of the sensor not seeing enough DOF to drive AF to a small, perched OOF bird when it is focused further out on the background? Or are you seeing actual unreliable AF on small birds when the green dots or RTT are focusing on the bird?

If the former, then it is unlikely that Sony or any other manufacturer (yes they all suffer from this...my Z7, R5, A9 etc...all of them) will be fixing that. My understanding is that it is because the PDAF on sensor is seeing at the limited DOF of the lens. Contrast that to the PDAF sensor on a DSLR located off sensor that sees at something like f/22 all the time and can recognize that grossly OOF bird on a near perch easier.

If the latter, then I'm not sure what is going on. I've had no issue with getting a high hit rate on small, static birds with any of my Sony cameras (A9, A9II, A7RIV). The Sony cameras deliver me the highest hit rate of any camera I've used for such subjects. The R5 likewise and even my little Z50 does really well because of the on sensor PDAF.

Over at Fred Miranda you say something different:
 
I'll add a comment about A1 v A9/A7R III/A7R IV Small Spot AF on small static birds. On those older bodies it's unreliable. This has been exhaustively canvassed on Fred Miranda, DPreview and TalkEMount forums.

The five vids from the A1 that I studied indicate that its eye AF clearly does better in this case.
 
Honestly, I think everyone is trying to take more from those videos than they should. I think what you'll find when the camera is released is that it isn't so binary. Depending on what you shoot, I think some will think BEAF is the best thing ever, others won't touch it. There are a ton of different styles, priorities, skill levels, and roughly 18,000 bird species on the planet. I think the only way to know if it's reliable for your type of shooting is to try it and see. I don't think we'll have the full picture with this until the camera is really in the hands of the people.
 
Sure, but at the price few will be able to try it and see.

I look forward to more tests with birds in flight, done by people without a conflict of interest.
 
Over at Fred Miranda you say something different:

Which part on FM are you referring to? Are you referring to my comment about D500 being best for a very quick reaction to a perching bird?
I do think for a very quick reaction the DSLR like D500 are a little snappier. But my point that you quoted from this thread doesn't contradict that. The Sony cameras still provide me a better hit rate even if they aren't as quick to get on the bird as the D500.

My other post in that FM thread is talking about the same thing I was talking about on here. The problem with PDAF sensors "seeing" the grossly OOF near bird and not driving the AF to find it.

I'm not sure what was contradictory between those two posts?
 
Just because the claim keeps bugging me... Nikon does not 'use Sony sensors'. Nikon sensors right now are fabricated by Sony Semiconductor, a different entity than Sony Imaging. They're 'bespoke products' - designed by Nikon and manufactured by Sony. Which is the way the semiconductor business works these days. A 'fab' costs well over a billion dollars, and there aren't many of them. Even less of them manufacturing imaging sensors, which is a different specialty than CPUs, ASICs, or memory. Nikon is a 'fabless' semiconductor company, as are IBM, HP, Apple, etc etc. Nikon researches sensors and holds a number of important sensor patents, some of which are licensed to Sony. And they've licensed some patents from Sony - cross-licensing is common in this business. The idea that Nikon is somehow forced to lag behind Sony, simply isn't correct. In fact, given the state of patents it may be the other way around - we don't know.
 
I'm already on a list or two to get one :)

The truth is, this is the wildlife camera I've talked about having since the D3x (not a typo - it's been that long). I've always wanted a pro body that could deliver high res, killer AF, huge buffer, and a fast frame rate. Every single camera has come up short in some area - until now. The A1 checks every single box with the possible exception of ISO performance (I have yet to see any higher ISO samples - or any samples, but I am confident).

Still, it think for now the a1 will become my primary camera along with my a9ii. I feel like this is a camera I can easily have in my bag for the next 5 years. I had thought of my Sony outfit as a secondary system, but right now Nikon just doesn't have an answer to this and I doubt we'll see anything even this year (I'd love to be wrong though). Don't worry though - my Nikon gear isn't going anywhere (well, most of it's not :D )

As for swapping systems, consider this. If you're moving towards mirrorless - and the truth is if you are moving that's about the only direction we have open at this point - you're likely going to want all native lenses. Since every brand tossed out a new mount, you have to re-purchase everything anyway. With adapters you can get by with old gear for a time, but eventually you'll pull out your wallet for the native glass. Since this is going to happen anyway, now's the time to switch if you want to.
Just remember a certain aspiring photographer if you decide to get rid of your Nikon 600mm f4! 😎
 
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