Will the Nikon Z9 Deliver?

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Abinoone

Abinoone

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Does anyone have any information on or insight into Nikon's planned Z9 release later this year? What features and capabilities do you think it might have? Will it include improved AF to rival or surpass Sony's Alpha 1, faster FPS, and will it be based on a stacked CMOS sensor? The reason for my questions is because I had the opportunity to use a Sony a1 the other day, and was blown away by its capability. Just wondering when Nikon might "catch up" or even regain its leadership in the mirrorless market - an especially important consideration for me because of my investments in Nikon DSLRs to date. I know that ML is in my future but if Nikon can't or won't at least match what Sony and Canon already provide, I'd rather cut my losses sooner than later.
 
Sounds like it will be a great camera, but a lot of speculation about the details. The sensor will apparently not be by Sony, bu by Tower Semiconductor. Not sure what a stacked sensor is, but the Canon R3 is going to have one too, so it must be good.

nikonrumors.com

Rumored Nikon Z9 professional mirrorless camera specifications - Nikon Rumors

As promised earlier today, Here is an updated set of rumored Nikon Z9 professional mirrorless camera specifications (previously reported here): Newly developed high-resolution stacked FX sensor. Three different sensors were tested: 45-46MP, 50MP, and 60MP. My guess is that they will go with the...
nikonrumors.com nikonrumors.com
 
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Other than the people testing it, nobody knows. Given Nikon’s history with MLC, I’d bet it will be just a step behind Sony and Canon. Is that what people are hoping for? Of course not, but unless they make a huge leap, which needs are lot of faith to believe will happen, the Z9 won’t be class leading. Will it be a great MLC? Yes. Will it be the best, unlikely.
 
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I suspect the reason Nikon is taking so long to release the Z9 is in order to perfect the AF so that it's comparable to Sony. After all that's really what they historically did better than others with DSLRs and are now behind with mirrorless.

Sadly there won't be a Nikon mirrorless in my future. When they changed the lens mount they opened the door to consider other options. My cabinet full of lenses is no longer an anchor. Nikon began to disappoint with the long delay of the D500, continued with QC issues on the D800 followed by delayed deliveries on multiple products that continue to plague them. Around the same time that I purchased the D800 that had to be returned for recall repairs I also purchased a 500mm f4G. It also had to have warranty work done due to being so far out of tune that max correction in either of three camera bodies could not correct it. How could it even make it out of the factory like that? Bottom line I've lost confidence in them as a company. This after spending tens of thousands on their "flagship" bodies and "exotic" lenses. They've gotten their last dollar from me.

Last week I spent several days shooting with a guy who had a Sony A7Riv/200-600mm. He is a total novice and was nailing focus every time from a moving boat. He also had a pretty high keeper rate on BIF which the A7 isn't really designed for. I was really impressed. I see an A1 in my future. And funded by the sale of my Nikon gear. I will be hanging on to my D850 and 500mm PF. Will have to pry them from my cold dead fingers.

Anyone still interested in some well cared for Nikon gear after that ringing endorsement can message me :)
 
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I don't think Nikon has a choice, it will deliver - they are an awesome engineering company and always have been.

When it will will deliver, is a big question in my mind - they may create the best camera but if it is 18 months away for the mortals who can afford it, is that good enough? And what / when will be the trickle-down strategy which is what truly matters for financial viability? They hit a home-run with the D5/D500 concurrent launch followed shortly by the D850 - if they can do that again, they will regain some momentum but I don't know that a Z9 alone will do it.

At what price will it deliver? Nikon of late has been pretty aggressive with lowering prices, but they are also not profitable... in the past they have not been afraid to be more expensive and if you look at the Sony R1 at $6500... if the Z9 is what it promises, will it be worth $7500?

And finally lenses. Will they be able to release the Z lenses that need to be available for a Z9 to be viable? And will they fix the FTZ-adapted lens performance to bridge them over until the Z lenses supply becomes sufficient? Back to the previous question, will anybody pay $7500 or even $6500 (pure speculation) for a body that doesn't restore full performance on adapted long lenses?

All that to say, Z9 performance is what worries me the least as far as Nikon's ability to regain traction with crowds like us (more advanced, wildlife type shooters - we are a smaller crowd with specific needs but as a group we spend a lot to have those needs met so I am not sure Nikon's strategy can win without a solid share amongst wildlife photographers - amateurs and pros alike).
 
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I'm heavily invested in Nikon with 4 bodies including a D850 and D500 and over a dozen lenses including a 600mm f/4G, but I'm done with Nikon. When I heard they will only be providing the Z9 to select professionals for the summer Olympics in July and delaying the announcement until "later in the year", I've had it. A lot of the more popular bodies and lenses are back ordered with no expected delivery dates just amplifying Nikon's reputation for not being able to provide product in quantity in a timely fashion.

So, I'll continue to take images with the great gear I've got, but I'll add a Canon body this fall or winter, probably an R3, and start collecting glass next year as I start selling off my Nikon gear.
 
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NorthernFocus said:
I suspect the reason Nikon is taking so long to release the Z9 is in order to perfect the AF so that it's comparable to Sony. After all that's really what they historically did better than others with DSLRs and are now behind with mirrorless.

Sadly there won't be a Nikon mirrorless in my future. When they changed the lens mount they opened the door to consider other options. My cabinet full of lenses is no longer an anchor. Nikon began to disappoint with the long delay of the D500, continued with QC issues on the D800 followed by delayed deliveries on multiple products that continue to plague them. Around the same time that I purchased the D800 that had to be returned for recall repairs I also purchased a 500mm f4G. It also had to have warranty work done due to being so far out of tune that max correction in either of three camera bodies could not correct it. How could it even make it out of the factory like that? Bottom line I've lost confidence in them as a company. This after spending tens of thousands on their "flagship" bodies and "exotic" lenses. They've gotten their last dollar from me.

Last week I spent several days shooting with a guy who had a Sony A7Riv/200-600mm. He is a total novice and was nailing focus every time from a moving boat. He also had a pretty high keeper rate on BIF which the A7 isn't really designed for. I was really impressed. I see an A1 in my future. And funded by the sale of my Nikon gear. I will be hanging on to my D850 and 500mm PF. Will have to pry them from my cold dead fingers.

Anyone still interested in some well cared for Nikon gear after that ringing endorsement can message me :)
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Ouch! But I get it. They blinked, just at the wrong time, when everybody else jumped.
 
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Abinoone said:
Does anyone have any information on or insight into Nikon's planned Z9 release later this year? What features and capabilities do you think it might have? Will it include improved AF to rival or surpass Sony's Alpha 1, faster FPS, and will it be based on a stacked CMOS sensor? The reason for my questions is because I had the opportunity to use a Sony a1 the other day, and was blown away by its capability. Just wondering when Nikon might "catch up" or even regain its leadership in the mirrorless market - an especially important consideration for me because of my investments in Nikon DSLRs to date. I know that ML is in my future but if Nikon can't or won't at least match what Sony and Canon already provide, I'd rather cut my losses sooner than later.
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The report is they will be demonstrating the camera and lenses at the Olympics in late July with an announcement or release in November.

The stacked sensor is a big deal. It allows the camera to use part of the sensor readout for AF, and allows faster readout to reduce rolling shutter. This alone should make the camera comparable to the Sony A1/Canon R3 or better. Nikon has also indicated there are some advanced processing technologies in the new camera - above and beyond Eye AF.

The testing at the Olympics is supposed to include new long lenses. You can't release an action or sports camera without long lenses. So the 400, 600, and 100-400 will be released in a similar time frame. These lenses will be priced accordingly. The 100-400 will probably be more of a 80-400 replacement and competitive with Canon and Sony alternatives. The 200-600 seems to be more of a consumer lens, so in my mind it fits a prosumer or enthusiast counterpart to the Z9. All of these lenses will be great optically - they are all S lenses and Nikon's Z lineup is first rate.

Don't be confused by what Sony and Canon already provide. The A1, R3, and Z9 are in a different category from other camera bodies. I ran a webinar a couple of nights ago with Arthur Morris and he indicated he's getting a 10% keeper rate with his Bird in Flight images using the A1. That's very different than perched subjects where the keeper rate is quite high. The reality is quite different than the internet would have you believe. Now his standards are high, but there are a lot of bad photos that are made even with eye AF.
 
NorthernFocus said:
The stacked sensor is basically a processor and the imaging sensor stacked together to improve speed. This is what allows the insane frame rates(Sony's 30fps) and allowed the big breakthrough in AF.
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So rather than the pipeline being row by row, it goes directly each photosite to processor?
 
EricBowles said:
The report is they will be demonstrating the camera and lenses at the Olympics in late July with an announcement or release in November.

The stacked sensor is a big deal. It allows the camera to use part of the sensor readout for AF, and allows faster readout to reduce rolling shutter. This alone should make the camera comparable to the Sony A1/Canon R3 or better. Nikon has also indicated there are some advanced processing technologies in the new camera - above and beyond Eye AF.

The testing at the Olympics is supposed to include new long lenses. You can't release an action or sports camera without long lenses. So the 400, 600, and 100-400 will be released in a similar time frame. These lenses will be priced accordingly. The 100-400 will probably be more of a 80-400 replacement and competitive with Canon and Sony alternatives. The 200-600 seems to be more of a consumer lens, so in my mind it fits a prosumer or enthusiast counterpart to the Z9. All of these lenses will be great optically - they are all S lenses and Nikon's Z lineup is first rate.

Don't be confused by what Sony and Canon already provide. The A1, R3, and Z9 are in a different category from other camera bodies. I ran a webinar a couple of nights ago with Arthur Morris and he indicated he's getting a 10% keeper rate with his Bird in Flight images using the A1. That's very different than perched subjects where the keeper rate is quite high. The reality is quite different than the internet would have you believe. Now his standards are high, but there are a lot of bad photos that are made even with eye AF.
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Wow, this surprises me re: a1! Recently, I had the opportunity to use the a1 for an hour, and was very impressed with shooting BIF (just some gulls, but still). Not so sure about the demo at the Olympics that few will attend, other than the athletes. 🙂
 
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bleirer said:
Good article. Seems to be saying not much advantage to IQ? More AF and frame rate?
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Yeah, I'd expect the big benefits being in the areas of: EVF, AF and reduced rolling shutter effect.

At this time I haven't seen anything touting stacked sensors as being a big breakthrough in IQ but since they're an extension of BSI technology it's possible something might improve there, perhaps just maintaining current noise and DR performance in higher resolution sensors.
 
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DRwyoming said:
Yeah, I'd expect the big benefits being in the areas of: EVF, AF and reduced rolling shutter effect.

At this time I haven't seen anything touting stacked sensors as being a big breakthrough in IQ but since they're an extension of BSI technology it's possible something might improve there, perhaps just maintaining current noise and DR performance in higher resolution sensors.
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Indeed! At this stage, the fact that stacked sensors deliver this level of speed improvement without any IQ penalty is more than enough to get me excited! If the next generations also deliver some level of IQ gain I'll be ecstatic.
 
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Abinoone said:
Wow, this surprises me re: a1! Recently, I had the opportunity to use the a1 for an hour, and was very impressed with shooting BIF (just some gulls, but still). Not so sure about the demo at the Olympics that few will attend, other than the athletes. 🙂
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Everyone looks at / defines keeper rates differently. If we're just talking images where the bird is sharp in some way (eye, wing, whatever), then my keeper rate on the a1 is really high (80% + on most species). However, if we're talking a perfectly tack sharp eyeball, good wing position, good background, no motion blur, proper framing, etc. my keeper rate looks a lot more like Art's. Plus, I'd bet Art shoots like I do - at close range - which makes it tougher (when you shoot birds at a distance DOF covers AF errors pretty well). Overall, the a1 tends to stay on the bird better than any camera I've ever used, but that doesn't mean every frame is a winner :)
 
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JANuser said:
"I’d bet it will be just a step behind Sony and Canon."
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I tend to think this might be what happens as well. Lately, Nikon seems to be delivering "just enough" to stay in the game. The D6, D780, and Z series and even the new macro lens release are all solid but none of them are ground breaking and most are a smidgen behind the competition. Nikon reminds me of the student who, if given a report assignment with a 500 word minimum, turns in exactly 500 words, where Sony and Canon are turning in 1000 word + papers. It's not that it's wrong, it's just not impressive compared to the others.
 
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EricBowles said:
...Don't be confused by what Sony and Canon already provide. ...I ran a webinar a couple of nights ago with Arthur Morris and he indicated he's getting a 10% keeper rate with his Bird in Flight images using the A1...
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I think a statement like this deserves/needs a little bit of qualification/context. Does that mean shooting BIF in eye focus mode? What constitues a keeper? Versus what is his typical keeper rate? etc.... Per Steve's comment above all of the feedback I've heard from Nikon shooters who own D5/6 and have tried the A1 is that the A1's autofocus is at least as good if not better. Plus it has the animal/bird eye detection. No doubt the advertising is misleading. But anyone who makes $6500 decisions based purely on the seller's advertising shouldn't be surprised by any disappointment that may result.
 
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Steve said:
Everyone looks at / defines keeper rates differently. If we're just talking images where the bird is sharp in some way (eye, wing, whatever), then my keeper rate on the a1 is really high (80% + on most species). However, if we're talking a perfectly tack sharp eyeball, good wing position, good background, no motion blur, proper framing, etc. my keeper rate looks a lot more like Art's. Plus, I'd bet Art shoots like I do - at close range - which makes it tougher (when you shoot birds at a distance DOF covers AF errors pretty well). Overall, the a1 tends to stay on the bird better than any camera I've ever used, but that doesn't mean every frame is a winner :)
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If I ever got 10% keepers out of all my outings, I'd think I died and gone to heaven. Remember the days when there was 1 good slide out of a roll of 36? That's 2.8% and it was an awesome day :cool:
 
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Suggest we also review the first set of rumored Z9 specs to see how the goal posts have shifted since Oct 2020 and which of these rumored specs seem to be materializing.

https://nikonrumors.com/2020/10/06/...ess-camera-specifications.aspx/#ixzz6d9p1pRRn

This set includes

“The Z9 is described as a D6 body combined with EOS R5 imaging, α9II AF, and blackout-free EVF”

The goal posts have certainly shifted now that the Sony A1 is out and the Canon R3 is ‘loose in the wild’.

I was always curious about what ‘EOS R5 imaging’ refers to? I haven’t seen a reference (?), but I think it refers to the R5 imaging pipeline – from the lens chips, mount communications contacts, memory cards, to the faster processors and higher MP sensor image/AF readouts. With the Sony A1 and Canon R3 stacked sensor designs we expect faster sensor and autofocus readouts. We expect these cameras will adjust AF and refresh the EVF at 30fps. While stacked sensors may not (?) improve image IQ directly, they certainly enable image IQ with AF and EVF (operator) use at high fps rates.
 
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NorthernFocus said:
I think a statement like this deserves/needs a little bit of qualification/context. Does that mean shooting BIF in eye focus mode? What constitues a keeper? Versus what is his typical keeper rate? etc.... Per Steve's comment above all of the feedback I've heard from Nikon shooters who own D5/6 and have tried the A1 is that the A1's autofocus is at least as good if not better. Plus it has the animal/bird eye detection. No doubt the advertising is misleading. But anyone who makes $6500 decisions based purely on the seller's advertising shouldn't be surprised by any disappointment that may result.
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That's a good description. The A1 is probably the best action camera today for bird photography. He just finished an e- book on the R5/R6. He also commented that just getting the bird in the frame can be tough with higher magnification. But each photographer needs to put that distinction in context. AF for action is just one consideration, and every future pro level camera will be measured against that standard. But you'll have the R3 and Z9 later this year, so any gear based advantage is narrow and short lived. If you are chasing gear advantages, you better be ready to upgrade often.

As Steve described, Art is filling the frame or using high magnification. He's often using a long lens and teleconverter - a 600mm lens and teleconverter are normal tools. He's been photographing birds professionally for more than 30 years. And he uses his camera to photograph birds every day so the level of practice adds up. He's got a class for sale on his website that demonstrates how he selects images from a day of shooting.
 
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Personally, I think people are judging Nikon 's capabilities too much by the 'present'. Their release cycles are different from others (e.g. D3 series was substantially new, D4 was refinement of that, D5 was substantially new, D6 is refinement... etc.) They also were heavily affected by the earthquake/tsunami (their main plant is in Sendai) and the Thailand floods (their second main plant was 10' deep in water in Thailand). That was of course the period when people were complaining about the delay in the D300 successor (which became the D500, arguably still the best crop sensor camera out there).

They've made big mistakes in the past (they ceded volume leadership to Canon, were very late to VR, somewhat late to digital full frame, the Nikon 1 side trip...) but they seem to recover eventually and certainly have the capability to do something big. Almost by definition we can't know what that might be, since we're judging by what already exists (the A1) or may soon exist (the R3). Remembering that Nikon's target market for the Z9 is much bigger than bird photographers but by its numbering is top-of-the-line pro focused, what might that kind of breakthrough look like?
 
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