Will the Nikon Z9 Deliver?

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The report is they will be demonstrating the camera and lenses at the Olympics in late July with an announcement or release in November.

The stacked sensor is a big deal. It allows the camera to use part of the sensor readout for AF, and allows faster readout to reduce rolling shutter. This alone should make the camera comparable to the Sony A1/Canon R3 or better. Nikon has also indicated there are some advanced processing technologies in the new camera - above and beyond Eye AF.

The testing at the Olympics is supposed to include new long lenses. You can't release an action or sports camera without long lenses. So the 400, 600, and 100-400 will be released in a similar time frame. These lenses will be priced accordingly. The 100-400 will probably be more of a 80-400 replacement and competitive with Canon and Sony alternatives. The 200-600 seems to be more of a consumer lens, so in my mind it fits a prosumer or enthusiast counterpart to the Z9. All of these lenses will be great optically - they are all S lenses and Nikon's Z lineup is first rate.

Don't be confused by what Sony and Canon already provide. The A1, R3, and Z9 are in a different category from other camera bodies. I ran a webinar a couple of nights ago with Arthur Morris and he indicated he's getting a 10% keeper rate with his Bird in Flight images using the A1. That's very different than perched subjects where the keeper rate is quite high. The reality is quite different than the internet would have you believe. Now his standards are high, but there are a lot of bad photos that are made even with eye AF.

I wonder what birds, and what conditions resulted in this abysmal keeper rate? I’m getting a much higher rate with the hummingbirds in my yard. Even the a7rIII gave me a better keeper rate with waterfowl BIF.
 
I'd take one if it was gifted to me, no problem, assuming a trinity of top lenses of course.
 
I wonder what birds, and what conditions resulted in this abysmal keeper rate? I’m getting a much higher rate with the hummingbirds in my yard. Even the a7rIII gave me a better keeper rate with waterfowl BIF.
As a side note, I tried hummers with it the other night. Bird-eye AF, Wide AF Area, and focus was spot on every time! Best hummingbird camera I've ever used :)
 
I wonder what birds, and what conditions resulted in this abysmal keeper rate? I’m getting a much higher rate with the hummingbirds in my yard. Even the a7rIII gave me a better keeper rate with waterfowl BIF.
His website mentions 99% BIF in focus shots with the A1, using the appropriate focus mode, so my guess is that his definition of a keeper is far more stringent than "technically perfect".
 
I tend to think this might be what happens as well. Lately, Nikon seems to be delivering "just enough" to stay in the game. The D6, D780, and Z series and even the new macro lens release are all solid but none of them are ground breaking and most are a smidgen behind the competition. Nikon reminds me of the student who, if given a report assignment with a 500 word minimum, turns in exactly 500 words, where Sony and Canon are turning in 1000 word + papers. It's not that it's wrong, it's just not impressive compared to the others.
Love the metaphor!
 
The report is they will be demonstrating the camera and lenses at the Olympics in late July with an announcement or release in November.

The stacked sensor is a big deal. It allows the camera to use part of the sensor readout for AF, and allows faster readout to reduce rolling shutter. This alone should make the camera comparable to the Sony A1/Canon R3 or better. Nikon has also indicated there are some advanced processing technologies in the new camera - above and beyond Eye AF.

The testing at the Olympics is supposed to include new long lenses. You can't release an action or sports camera without long lenses. So the 400, 600, and 100-400 will be released in a similar time frame. These lenses will be priced accordingly. The 100-400 will probably be more of a 80-400 replacement and competitive with Canon and Sony alternatives. The 200-600 seems to be more of a consumer lens, so in my mind it fits a prosumer or enthusiast counterpart to the Z9. All of these lenses will be great optically - they are all S lenses and Nikon's Z lineup is first rate.

Don't be confused by what Sony and Canon already provide. The A1, R3, and Z9 are in a different category from other camera bodies. I ran a webinar a couple of nights ago with Arthur Morris and he indicated he's getting a 10% keeper rate with his Bird in Flight images using the A1. That's very different than perched subjects where the keeper rate is quite high. The reality is quite different than the internet would have you believe. Now his standards are high, but there are a lot of bad photos that are made even with eye AF.

Wow, 10% keeper rate for someone with the experience of Morris is extradornarily low. Just guessing, I would have thought he was doing far better than that when he was shooting his DSLR. As you suggested, his keeper rate is probably based on more than just sharp focus, but still...throwing out 90% is incredulous.
 
To me, it seems plausible that the R3 and Z9 were meant to be a9 (or a9iii) competitors, with no doubt that prototypes were either ready or getting close to ready early last year for the 2020 olympics, but then the olympics were post-poned. In the mean time, the unexpected drop of the A1 probably caught them by surprise, making them go back and re-work things in order to get a competitive camera ready for the new benchmark.

I have little doubt that both the R3 and Z9 will be astonishing cameras, in large part thanks to sony pushing the benchmark.
 
I think one thing is perfectly clear here, no matter what Nikon releases...... someone isn’t going to be happy. You can’t please all of the people all of the time. Just as with cars, there is no Goldilocks model, everything has some level of compromise, you just need to find the right balance for YOU.

Maxim Gorky: "When everything is easy one quickly gets stupid".
 
I think one thing is perfectly clear here, no matter what Nikon releases...... someone isn’t going to be happy. You can’t please all of the people all of the time. Just as with cars, there is no Goldilocks model, everything has some level of compromise, you just need to find the right balance for YOU.

Maxim Gorky: "When everything is easy one quickly gets stupid".
That’s for sure. The flagship cameras have never been jacks of all trade, they are actually quite niched. The interesting thing is that the A1 is changing the paradigm.
1D and D6 serve the same recipe - maximum speed, best AF, overbuilt body you can use as a hammer in a pinch, and never ending battery life. In recent year they added high iso performance. In essence they are the reliable workhorse for the journalist on tight deadlines. It so happens that the recipe works quite well for wildlife photographers, at the expense of resolution.

The A1 on the other hand drops the body, battery life and best in class high iso performance to offer instead high resolution and AF performance that is a true game changer, not just a refinement, coupled with the first camera that can credibly operate without mechanical shutter. The flagship now has a new paradigm and it clearly is hitting the buttons of a lot of traditional Nikon and canon shooters.

i wonder if canon and Nikon will get stuck in the old world or if they will pick up the gauntlet and deliver a blend of both recipes. Of late Nikon seems short on vision and ambition but they have those cyclical Phoenix moments so who knows.
 
Wow, 10% keeper rate for someone with the experience of Morris is extradornarily low. Just guessing, I would have thought he was doing far better than that when he was shooting his DSLR. As you suggested, his keeper rate is probably based on more than just sharp focus, but still...throwing out 90% is incredulous.

Come to think of it, I'm throwing out far more than I did before switching to the a1. Before the a1 the vast majority of the ones I'm now deleting would be 'keepers'. The a1 gives me a lot more to choose from and I see no need to keep the hundreds that are nearly as good as the best ones.
 
Come to think of it, I'm throwing out far more than I did before switching to the a1. Before the a1 the vast majority of the ones I'm now deleting would be 'keepers'. The a1 gives me a lot more to choose from and I see no need to keep the hundreds that are nearly as good as the best ones.

Same here, sometimes I just find one I’m 100% happy with and I’ll only take quick glance at the rest (in grid view) to see if I have any interesting poses and just mass delete. I don’t even shoot at 30fps (stick to 10 or 15 99% of the time).
 
Technology has been changing at a much higher rate now a days. Back then we bought equipment to last a lifetime. Today we may still think of investments as long-term, but now it's about a long-term eco system rather than a product, because the average lifetime of electronic products unfortunately reduced down to 3 years (be it phones, computers or cameras).

I personally take my time and upgrade on a slower pace than most, because I enjoy the ride. I don't want to jump form a slow VW Beatle directly to a 911 Porsche.. I rather enjoy smaller increments. So I started with the entry level D3200, improved my skills till my gear became the bottleneck. I then made the jump to the D7500 (in 2018) together with the 200-500 (that replaced my 55-200). I immediately saw improvements in my wildlife photography. This year I made the next jump to the wonderful D850 together with the versatile 300 PF. Once again this upgrade blew my mind. I can now push my skills to the next level.. until my next jump to Z9/R6/A1.

I think it's essential to sharpen your skills before relying on High tech.. because once your rely on high tech, certain skills tend to rust.. Sure high tech increases our chances of getting that perfect shot, and it would be foolish not to make best use of it..

that's basically why I will gradually work my way up to the high tech Z9/R6/A1.. Nikon served me well over the past 25 years, and since I am not in a hurry, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

IMO I guess there won't be an improved FTZ considering the discontinuation of F glass that already started. I hope the Z will be as good as the competition, but it is unlikely to surpass them, considering the current gap and recent Z products releases. Is the Nikon still a great system, yes, otherwise it wouldn't have won many awards including best APS-C Z50 or Best Landscape Z7ii (DPReview). True, Sony and Canon are ahead in certain aspects, but those aspects are not crucial to all photographers.

Which ever system you shoot, I wish all a happy weekend and stay safe, since the new Indian mutation is starting to stir up some trouble here in Europe :(
 
Come to think of it, I'm throwing out far more than I did before switching to the a1. Before the a1 the vast majority of the ones I'm now deleting would be 'keepers'. The a1 gives me a lot more to choose from and I see no need to keep the hundreds that are nearly as good as the best ones.
Is it possible that you're simply taking more images with the a1? In bursts of 30fps, it's easy to rack up the number of images on the card!
 
Technology has been changing at a much higher rate now a days. Back then we bought equipment to last a lifetime. Today we may still think of investments as long-term, but now it's about a long-term eco system rather than a product, because the average lifetime of electronic products unfortunately reduced down to 3 years (be it phones, computers or cameras).

I personally take my time and upgrade on a slower pace than most, because I enjoy the ride. I don't want to jump form a slow VW Beatle directly to a 911 Porsche.. I rather enjoy smaller increments. So I started with the entry level D3200, improved my skills till my gear became the bottleneck. I then made the jump to the D7500 (in 2018) together with the 200-500 (that replaced my 55-200). I immediately saw improvements in my wildlife photography. This year I made the next jump to the wonderful D850 together with the versatile 300 PF. Once again this upgrade blew my mind. I can now push my skills to the next level.. until my next jump to Z9/R6/A1.

I think it's essential to sharpen your skills before relying on High tech.. because once your rely on high tech, certain skills tend to rust.. Sure high tech increases our chances of getting that perfect shot, and it would be foolish not to make best use of it..

that's basically why I will gradually work my way up to the high tech Z9/R6/A1.. Nikon served me well over the past 25 years, and since I am not in a hurry, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

IMO I guess there won't be an improved FTZ considering the discontinuation of F glass that already started. I hope the Z will be as good as the competition, but it is unlikely to surpass them, considering the current gap and recent Z products releases. Is the Nikon still a great system, yes, otherwise it wouldn't have won many awards including best APS-C Z50 or Best Landscape Z7ii (DPReview). True, Sony and Canon are ahead in certain aspects, but those aspects are not crucial to all photographers.

Which ever system you shoot, I wish all a happy weekend and stay safe, since the new Indian mutation is starting to stir up some trouble here in Europe :(
Good points! After all, a F35 Lightning in the hands of a Piper Cub pilot doesn't make much sense!
 
Is it possible that you're simply taking more images with the a1? In bursts of 30fps, it's easy to rack up the number of images on the card!

Yes there are a lot more images (I'm using "only" 10 fps), and the vast majority are technically excellent. There's always some failure due to subject motion, and my reaction timing often means there are some I delete because the bird departed faster than I could release my finger pressure on the shutter switch.
 
Wow, 10% keeper rate for someone with the experience of Morris is extradornarily low. Just guessing, I would have thought he was doing far better than that when he was shooting his DSLR. As you suggested, his keeper rate is probably based on more than just sharp focus, but still...throwing out 90% is incredulous.
Morris wrote that 99% of his A1 images are eye focus sharp.
 
Will the Z9 deliver? Interesting question to which no one has a answer for sure as Nikon have kept secret any details regarding the camera.

The R5 was launched about 12 months ago, the Sony A1 back in January. Both have had people praising their AF and general performance and rightly so as it was a major leap forward.

The only thing I know for sure is that something is going to come along soon that will blow them out of the water as technology is moving ahead at pace as it always does. Whether it will be Canon with it's R3 or R1, Nikon Z9 or maybe Z8 or another Sony body I don't know but the next few months (and years) will be an interesting time for sure.

I will not be investing in any of them just yet but I am itching to buy into mirrorless for it's obvious advantages.
 
Has anyone commented about the Nikon PF lenses being something special, something other companies don't have? The 500mm f5.6PF is central to my current picture-taking, and is enough to keep me happy with Nikon. I will also ask, is Sony's flash system competitive with Nikon or Canon's yet? For some of us, the implementation of high speed multiple fill flash is important in some situations.
 
Canon has had PF (DO in Canon speak) for many years. They had different focal lengths, but they do have them.

All this talk of A1/A9/Z9/R3, it’s 1%er gear that will trickle down just as it always has. I don’t see the need to rush, been there done that, it’s just pouring money into an endless pit. It reminds me of all the people who rushed out to get a D3 for BIF, then the D700 launched and people switched because it had slightly better noise performance, only to switch to the D3s shortly there after, then they wanted the D800E a few months later for resolution. Just as before, by the time they get the teach nailed down (D850/D750/D500 era) it will come down to normal cameras price points, then that’s when things get interesting. Of course by then the next rabbit hole appeared (mirrorless).
 
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Canon has had PF (DO in Canon speak) for many years. They had different focal lengths, but they do have them.
Yes the 400 f:4 DO v2 is an outstanding lens but it's not getting that much love as it is in an odd spot. With the latest weight reduction on the 500 f:4 and the fact that the 400 DO costs almost $7k - most folks decide to bite the bullet and go all the way to the 500f:4.

Nikon's 500 pf was a strike of genius at its price and I'm sure we'll see that lens in R mount at some point, maybe whenever that trickle down Z8 appears. In the meantime, the 500pf on FTZ adapter with a Z6ii is underwhelming - I far prefer shooting it on the D850, it's more responsive, acquires focus more reliably, tracks better (for stills, on video I had a lot of fun experimenting with Z6ii and 500pf).
 
If I had to guess I would say the Z9 will be great for some and those who are shooting two systems or open minded to switch will be disappointed. I also believe you won't actually have a chance to buy the Z9 until around this time next year. By then Sony and Canon will have new cameras out that aren't announced yet. I personally don't believe when you can actually buy the Z9 it will be an equal in AF performance. I would bet money the a1MK2 is already in the pipeline as well as an a7r5, a9III. The ball will continue to move and Nikon appears to be trying to catch up not leap forward. With Sony setting a pace of new cameras every 18 months and not just announcements but shipping product it is going to be very hard for Nikon and possibly Canon to keep pace.

Think about this...Sony announced the a1 and shipped it in a month. Nikon announces the Z9, no specs, no ship date, no price. Yet everyone is banking on it being as good as say an a1. Well they haven't even built a camera up to the a9II ability yet and that camera is how old?
 
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