CES Speculation

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I am wondering if we are going to miss a complete cycle of products. Technologies that were ready to begin being produced a year ago may never have actually started being prepared for production because of COVID. If there are newer technologies almost ready, will vendors be concerned about the production, distribution, and sales channels enough to wait until those areas are more stable to move ahead. I believe with the advancement in technologies the window to make a profit on new technologies doesn't last very long. It's anybody's guess!
 
I am a bit confused about the Custom Menu Banks and the Shooting Menu Banks. How do you use these? I do understand that you can configure these for different settings in the camera, but where, Custom or Shooting? Why would you put some in Custom menu, and why will you put some in Shooting menu. If you use these settings , can you tell me how you do it. I am shooting with a D810, and I am a street, travel, landscape, and a want to be, portrait photographer.

Steve (Admin Staff member) has this area and much more well covered, just send him a question as to where you can get the info, he also has a great complete tutorial that covers your Nikon camera completely, I hear that using this shooting menu is handy for those that have the need, personally I have never used it, ever.
 
I am wondering if we are going to miss a complete cycle of products. Technologies that were ready to begin being produced a year ago may never have actually started being prepared for production because of COVID. If there are newer technologies almost ready, will vendors be concerned about the production, distribution, and sales channels enough to wait until those areas are more stable to move ahead. I believe with the advancement in technologies the window to make a profit on new technologies doesn't last very long. It's anybody's guess!
I don't think we'll miss anything. The D850 replacement was engineered years ago and the prototypes have already been built and tweaks made. With the amount of lead time required for digital cameras, there is no point in throwing away all the engineering it took over the last few years to start over. In the past, by the time Nikon released a dslr the engineers were already working on it's replacement. Delays due to lack of parts availability/manufacturing issues is a different story.
 
I don't think we'll miss anything. The D850 replacement was engineered years ago and the prototypes have already been built and tweaks made. With the amount of lead time required for digital cameras, there is no point in throwing away all the engineering it took over the last few years to start over. In the past, by the time Nikon released a dslr the engineers were already working on it's replacement. Delays due to lack of parts availability/manufacturing issues is a different story.

It is bringing the product to market that could be the problem. I have no doubt the engineering has been done and the development of the next product is already underway. My question is how long of a production delay will it take to make the release of a product no longer profitable. I would guess that the D850 replacement could do very well if announced and readily available in the next 6 months or less, but what if that was a year or more because of production problems? If the replacement for the replacement of the D850 could be readily available in 18 months would that be a better option?

I really have no idea what is going to be announced and I don't think anything will surprise me.

My retirement job over the last few years has been working in retail/wholesale sales and the only certain thing I can say about the supply chain is it is really uncertain right now.

On a really side note, we can't even buy an electric range right now and we don't even know when they are going to be available.
 
I don't think we'll miss anything. The D850 replacement was engineered years ago and the prototypes have already been built and tweaks made. With the amount of lead time required for digital cameras, there is no point in throwing away all the engineering it took over the last few years to start over. In the past, by the time Nikon released a dslr the engineers were already working on it's replacement. Delays due to lack of parts availability/manufacturing issues is a different story.


Interesting reading, it makes one think, The world now lives with change rapidly, quarter by quarter one year by one year is now a long time, not every 4 to 5 years.
In order to survive, I think that the engineering plans for the future have been accelerated forward for release or dumped, at the moment the camera industry is in panic and serious survival mode, Sales are through the flaw, Covid has compounded that even more, and the industry needs to put distance between it and the smart phone industry that has savaged profitability and continues to is hijack future growth potential for the Camera industry.

I think we have watched Sony jump into mirrorless cameras first to test the waters, A) because they could see an opportunity to survive and grow, B) they knew Nikon and Canon would move to slow, C) Sony could see that customers were not getting what they wanted, D) the industry needed rationalisation, overall the industry has seen only a shift in market share but the overall pool really hasn't grown yet actually declined.

Nikon has lost market share, Canon has held on, Sony has grown, Canon now admits it needs to provide connectivity and tap into the features offered by Smart Phones that are only getting better and leaving a carnage of DSLRS and Mirrorless cameras in the gutter.
Canon recently acted decisively and in a desperate attempt to preserve its market share, hence we see a jump in features that have always been sitting on the shelf.

Canon admits Connectivity like a smart phone, Video, and a high quality camera is the future, add to this the new driver in the game 5G and 5G gen two that I see as the hand in glove match for the smart phone market, and is accelerating the demand for more features, hence the camera industry needs to abandon long term traditional plans and act decisively or get out, the lack of lead time and engineering development is just an excuse to justify failure to share holders and or buy time.
Consumers are pretty savvy now, move and adapt quickly, parents on the beach yesterday all taking video of the toddlers splashing in the water, No one had an SLR or dedicated Video camera or compact mirrorless camera, every one had a smart phone. 5g or gen two 5 G will allow 45 minutes of Video to be sent from your smart phone is seconds. Oh Light Room Photo Shop yes you can have it on your smart phone already.

I mean its not the big powerful or wealthy that always survive...its the adaptable, to be adaptable you need to move quick decisively with courage and deep pockets. You need to also have diversity and vertical integration. To Day Engineering and development is easy and fast to create or buy. I mean why come out with a lame Z6 Z7 with crap eye focus and all the issues that don't encourage buys, then come out with a version II still not on the money, really, the industry is has self inflicted damage.
The statement Nikon has supposedly ? made that the camera division needs to make a profit and stand on its own two feet or else is really reckless and explains the poor naïve old school thinking culture coming from the top, remember the fish rots from the head not the tail ……..Nikon is a brilliant product with a loyal strong brand and strong following its just not being driven correctly from the top. I feel it will survive, I think its in a serious transition stage.
Remember the Japanese way of doing business is clever and different, do you think that there are 3 competitors or are they really one industry with three brands that dominate the global market...you know the answer, not dissimilar to the Japanese car industry. The world in business now only value Brands, doesn't matter what the product or quality is Branding is what counts.
Nikons biggest asset is its branding Name, that's the goodwill that will sell and a buyer will pay for, should Nikon even be for sale.

Would it be unrealistic to assume that Nikon and Sony work collaboratively or are joined indirectly at the Hip, combined they represent a formidable size and market share and full diversity of products.
Sony makes the finished sensors for Nikon, Nikon makes the machines that make the sensor in the first place for Sony to make the finished sensor for Nikon. Canon its a clear picture.......

The thing I like about Nikon is its Image files...…..

All only and opinion and hypothasis
OZ down under
 
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It is bringing the product to market that could be the problem. I have no doubt the engineering has been done and the development of the next product is already underway. My question is how long of a production delay will it take to make the release of a product no longer profitable. I would guess that the D850 replacement could do very well if announced and readily available in the next 6 months or less, but what if that was a year or more because of production problems? If the replacement for the replacement of the D850 could be readily available in 18 months would that be a better option?

I really have no idea what is going to be announced and I don't think anything will surprise me.

My retirement job over the last few years has been working in retail/wholesale sales and the only certain thing I can say about the supply chain is it is really uncertain right now.

On a really side note, we can't even buy an electric range right now and we don't even know when they are going to be available.
I wouldn't worry about a replacement for the D850 replacement. From what I hear, the D850 replacement will be the last of the line. The D6 may also be the last of it's line. Nikon isn't going to invest in major dslr development going forward. A few little tweaks here and there are about the only things that will net them a decent ROI. Nikon is pushing us all to mirrorless and once they solve the EFV time lag issue, dslrs will go the way of the dinosaurs.
 
Since I have commented a few times here already I am going to add my real wish for cameras.

I would like Nikon to announce that they are going to release a modular/customizable/upgradable camera. Pick your sensor, FX or Crop and choose your MP, format (DLSR/ML), focus performance, buffer, EFV performance, grip or no grip, storage slots, any other performance components. Use it for awhile and you want higher resolution, insert a new sensor. Add more FPS if you need them. Need more focus speed, update the focusing module. Start at $1500 and build to $10,000. We might even have color choices and custom trim options, or maybe even the "Steve Perry" autographed edition!

Maybe far fetched, but we have a lot of discussions here about trying to decide which camera we are going to purchase, wouldn't it be nice if the decision was much simpler. I did it with a computer this summer, why couldn't it be done with a camera.
 
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CES opens today but so far no announcements. I thought of sure we'd see some releases last night, but maybe not. The fire at the plant Warren mentioned might play a part - after all, it may not pay to announce new products that are months away. Still, I hope we see something from someone today...
Has Nikon in the past used CES to launch to cameras or lenses?
 
Hi all,

For Canon side, there many rumors (but it's rumors), that new bodies will be released soon.
New lenses as well. But no real info on what and when. Actually, there is a lack in big prime lenses.

Have a nice day ;-)
 
Some weeks back, I recall Thom Hogan predicting the D850 replacement is relatively well advanced and in testing (his industry sources apparently) but pandemic had delayed launch. Besides tighter turnovers of upgrades, at least some of these camera companies invest over relatively long cycles to develop core components eg the D5 sensor, which has had a long production run. Similarly with key advances in optical devices such as AF and phase-fresnel etc.

Equally, the Z mount and the core attributes of the system probably took a few years in R&D, as Nikon 1 was wound down. The relatively rapid release of most of the new Z-Nikkors since late 2018 must have followed some years of strategizing etc.

On the other hand, Nikon already has all the core components of a D860/D880 in the D6 AF engine, the Z7 sensor, and other chunks of the Z system for Lv etc.
 
On the other hand, Nikon already has all the core components of a D860/D880 in the D6 AF engine, the Z7 sensor, and other chunks of the Z system for Lv etc.
I doubt Nikon uses the same sensor in an updated D850 since the Z7 is using the D850 sensor. I bet it grows by 10 MP. There won't be enough other changes to get people to upgrade from a D850 if they don't.
 
I would like Nikon to announce that they are going to release a modular/customizable/upgradable camera.

Great idea. If they can do it with cars, PCs, Phones, why not cameras?

I work as a Sales and Supply Chain manager in the electronic industry. Everything is possible, now even more with Industry Standard 4.0
This will be the solution to increase Margins, even if it comes at the expense of a reduction in Revenue.
 
Great idea. If they can do it with cars, PCs, Phones, why not cameras?

I work as a Sales and Supply Chain manager in the electronic industry. Everything is possible, now even more with Industry Standard 4.0
This will be the solution to increase Margins, even if it comes at the expense of a reduction in Revenue.
The only way a modular/customizable/upgradable camera will work is with the "Camera Back" strategy used many years ago by Leica. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting. There is no "Steve Jobs" of the photography world to help move this "customer focus" paridigm forward.
 
Some weeks back, I recall Thom Hogan predicting the D850 replacement is relatively well advanced and in testing (his industry sources apparently) but pandemic had delayed launch. Besides tighter turnovers of upgrades, at least some of these camera companies invest over relatively long cycles to develop core components eg the D5 sensor, which has had a long production run. Similarly with key advances in optical devices such as AF and phase-fresnel etc.

Equally, the Z mount and the core attributes of the system probably took a few years in R&D, as Nikon 1 was wound down. The relatively rapid release of most of the new Z-Nikkors since late 2018 must have followed some years of strategizing etc.

On the other hand, Nikon already has all the core components of a D860/D880 in the D6 AF engine, the Z7 sensor, and other chunks of the Z system for Lv etc.


Here is a link to Thom Hogan's wish from Nikon for 2021: hint, it's not equipment. Thom Hogan's 2021 Nikon Wish List

W
 
It makes me wonder if this is due to Corona, as in factory capacity is limited and so is advancement in product development
Or it is a marketing strategy.. to host her own private event, like they did with the Z6 ii / Z7 ii
 
Reports indicate Japan is now in another lockdown and shortages are still being felt from the component factory fire last fall. Put it all together and Nikon probably feels they won't announce anything until they know they will be able to provide stock. If the D850 replacement is ready for manufacturing, certain parts aren't available so no new cameras.
 
2020 has taken its toll across many fronts; in an interview this week [partial summary] a Nikon Executive admits as such, and in today's news, some of Japan's hospitals are said to be 'close to collapse' under a resurge of CoV19 infections.

Hiroyuki-San reiterated the future of Nikon's ILC is the mirrorless Z system : 'The game is just about to begin. We have also prepared the technology and expanded the lineup. I don't want to admit that I'm late, but I've finally got all the bullets, and I'll continue to expand. I am confident that I will rewind." And also build up and expand the video business aiming at not only the movie industry, but they also plan to sell content.

But not entirely MILC....: "On the other hand, there are many customers who prefer single-lens reflex cameras because of their ease of use, the number of shots, and the lens assets they have built so far. I want to provide products there as well."

Aluta Continua
 
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