Imaging Market Forecasts into 2023 (and parts shortages) - Nikon

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fcotterill

fcotterill

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Subsequent to Nikon's Investor Relations Day 26th May, Nikon released its 2022/23 Q1 results

Slide 33 compares sales of ILCs and Lenses, with forecast


In the Q&A - https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/qa/2022_4q/20220519_1_e.pdf

"Q: Please describe the impact on this year's forecasts for the Imaging Products Business from parts shortages related to semiconductors.
A: The situation remains fluid, but we expect to experience a certain degree of production limitations throughout the year due to parts shortages. Based on that assumption, our plan calls for sales volumes to remain flat YoY, namely, 700,000 cameras and 1,250,000 interchangeable lenses."

Canon had a similar answer about how it predicts shortages - for at least a year assuming a smooth recovery
 
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fcotterill said:
"Q: Please describe the impact on this year's forecasts for the Imaging Products Business from parts shortages related to semiconductors.
A: The situation remains fluid, but we expect to experience a certain degree of production limitations throughout the year due to parts shortages. Based on that assumption, our plan calls for sales volumes to remain flat YoY, namely, 700,000 cameras and 1,250,000 interchangeable lenses."
Click to expand...

In another place, Leonard estimates that Nikon has shipped 45,000 Z9 since starting shipping in ~November/Dec 2021. If they achieve 700,000 body sales and "say" 70,000 of these are Z9 (ie 10%) in a full year then clearly a lot more Z6ii/Z7ii/Z5 and Z50/30/fc are being moved as well.
I am hopeful for a big launch in the last thursday of October 2022 similar to the D5/D500 launch with a new Z8 and Z80 and yes updates to a Z6II and Z7II as well - so Nikon can drive forward its recovery and respond to ever loud critics who don't want a heavy / large probody but want/demand its performance.
Oh and it would be good for the 6 remaining lenses on the road map to be launched too. So then Nikon could announce the next road map and give us more to speculate about.
 
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There is some very good information in the Nikon IR report. They clearly spell out the decline but not the end of the DSLR segment from 35% of revenue to 7% of revenue. They also spell out the end of products for the entry level segment by 2025. Over the same period, they expect to see annual units of mirrorless cameras for the enthusiast and pro segment to increase by 80% by 2025. This combination maintains profitability - and on that point Nikon has traditionally been conservative.

On a shorter term basis, Nikon is looking at an 8% increase in revenue for the first half of their fiscal year, and nearly 20% for the second half. That clearly spells out a high volume camera body or two for the enthusiast segment with production to support it.
 
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Note the Ratio of Lenses : Cameras since Q3 2020, and forecasted to Q4 2022:- 1.625 /1.571 / 1.671 /1.5 /1.772 /1.588 /2.25 /1.667

Alongside the switch in emphasis to Pros / Hobbyists, the May IR report also stated their 5 year plan is to sell at least double the lenses per camera


Nikon 2022 23_IR Day_Digital Imaging_e_1_Page_3.jpg
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Yes -- the last time I analysed these charts I concluded that was it for entry level bodies and then along came the Z30 -- an entry level for vloggers body.

One cannot take the language used and the translations too literally. Nikon Imaging Products will continue to be as fleet a foot as such a conservative and traditional company can/will.

The words "Furthermore, we will bolster video functionality...... " are very interesting for me. I spoke to my NPS rep a short while ago and did my best to push forward the needs of CINE shooters who want to use a Z9 with multiple-other recording devices and to seek Nikon's support to amongst other things to enable Jamming of Time Code Sync via bluetooth and wired connection (hopefully via the flash sync port) both on the Z9 and future camera bodies.
AND to ask Nikon to consider further enhancing USB-C operabilities with SSD out and better ties to SDI/BNC devices, if possible.
We are keen to obtain a MC-N10 Grip (see my blog on this subject if you are interested). The more input we can obtain the more likely we can help the Nikon team to focus on the right stuff.
Obviously there may be more/other CINE shooting enhancements that might be added to other existing Z-bodies - like the Z6II, but the CINE shooters I am liaising with like the 12-bit RAW capabilities of the Z9 (which we all hope are retained and replicated in new launched bodies).
Some of the wish list from CINE shooters (like built in ND filters) would require a purpose built CINE body and this is not something I see Nikon responding to in the short term. Nor do I see the need for Nikon to develop its own line of CINE glass. Enough 3rd parties and adapters exist to meet these demands in my view.
 
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