I had a chance to go out today and shoot with the 400/4.5, and I think that your summary is spot on. I absolutely loved it compact size and weight, but it was definitely shy of focal length and needing the TC for BIF. And it was a bit too long for some of the landscape shots I saw (e.g. old barns), and that was frustrating. But the AF speed was quite fast, the IQ when I nailed focus seemed great, and all in all, it was more fun to use than the 200-500. But it did get me to thinking that a zoom like the 100-400 or the 180-600 would be a more flexible solution. The focal range and physical size of the 100-400 is great, but I suspect this is not the best lens to use with a 1.4TC, and I would still be lacking for BIF. The 180-600 would be better for birding, but it is not as compact, and I would probably need to use it with a monopod as I did with the 200-500. Lots of choices, lots of trade-offs and never enough funds to do what I would ideally like to do. I have a few more days to think about what is the best approach to an upgrade from the 200-500, but I suspect that the ideal solution will require more funds than I wish to spend.
--Ken