Nikon Rumors: Z9II

[kanonka]

Real 16-bit RAW + better AF + better subject recognition + RAW pre-capture and I'll be first in line to make preorder no matter the price. Everything else is nice, but I don't really need those bells and whistles.
And when I say 'better' I mean better or at least the same as latest Sony/Canon.
But I highly doubt it would be done. Realistically speaking, I think they at most will add some form of RAW precapture, tiny insignificant tweaks to AF+Subject recognition, and call it Z9II. Same sensor, same DR, same or very slightly tweaked everything else. Probably some bigger video changes to justify RED acquisition, but that's it.

 

[Cameron T]

Honestly, it's not like the z9 is behind anyone in real world use. It's all close. I think there's a huge portion of people that think nikon is super far behind or w/e, but that's just not reality.

 

[ajrmd]

If the price were right and it offered pre-capture, 30FPS, and improved AF on par with the R1 and A1II, I might just bite and sell my Z8’s. Was shooting osprey diving again, and no matter what AF mode/settings, occasionally the AF would wander off target again during the dive. Additionally, it was astounding watching the af box dance all around while the osprey was hovering searching for prey. I’ve demonstrated this odd behavior in other situations before such as with a Trumpeter Swan and other subjects. It’s as though the AF algorithm enters a strange loop jumping from the eye/head back to the wing, the body, legs, etc. Ironically, the Z8 had no trouble earlier locking on to a little blue heron flying and landing as well as skimmers, and other subjects.

 

[Mark_Laidlaw]

Realistically speaking, I think they at most will add some form of RAW precapture, tiny insignificant tweaks to AF+Subject recognition, and call it Z9II. Same sensor, same DR, same or very slightly tweaked everything else. Probably some bigger video changes to justify RED acquisition, but that's it.

I think this is pretty much right on the nose. I bet it'll even use the same body ala Z6/7 v1 and v2.

 

[Lee R]

Real 16-bit RAW + better AF + better subject recognition + RAW pre-capture and I'll be first in line to make preorder no matter the price. Everything else is nice, but I don't really need those bells and whistles.
And when I say 'better' I mean better or at least the same as latest Sony/Canon.
But I highly doubt it would be done. Realistically speaking, I think they at most will add some form of RAW precapture, tiny insignificant tweaks to AF+Subject recognition, and call it Z9II. Same sensor, same DR, same or very slightly tweaked everything else. Probably some bigger video changes to justify RED acquisition, but that's it.

If they just release a "on par" camera a year from now that only catches up to the Sony A1ii, they're just signaling to everyone that they're the brand that will stay behind, because that's the basis of all the follow-on cameras for the next release cycles.

I actually think they'll be more ambitious and try to take the market lead until Canon and Sony refresh a few years on.

A weak release is a real missed opportunity to prove they can lead.

 

[arbitrage]

If they just release a "on par" camera a year from now that only catches up to the Sony A1ii, they're just signaling to everyone that they're the brand that will stay behind, because that's the basis of all the follow-on cameras for the next release cycles.

I actually think they'll be more ambitious and try to take the market lead until Canon and Sony refresh a few years on.

A weak release is a real missed opportunity to prove they can lead.

I really hope you are right and they do just that. I'd love to own a Nikon 400 or 600TC lens. I have no loyalty to any brand (heck at one point I owned all three at once) so I'd be happy to return to Nikon if the performance is there.
That said, even if they do only match the R5II and A1II specs they would only be about 1 yr behind those releases which isn't a big deal when these companies are on a 4+ yr refresh cycle.
The R5II and A1II weren't innovative at all but they did both add some nice upgrades.
The only real innovation I've seen in recent years is the A9III.

 

[Lee R]

I really hope you are right and they do just that. I'd love to own a Nikon 400 or 600TC lens. I have no loyalty to any brand (heck at one point I owned all three at once) so I'd be happy to return to Nikon if the performance is there.
That said, even if they do only match the R5II and A1II specs they would only be about 1 yr behind those releases which isn't a big deal when these companies are on a 4+ yr refresh cycle.
The R5II and A1II weren't innovative at all but they did both add some nice upgrades.
The only real innovation I've seen in recent years is the A9III.

I think they'll get the framerates up using HE/HE* or some RED compression. I feel like they have the leading tech there and just need a hardware update to really leverage it. If they use CFB 4 which is very likely they should be able to move beyond the A1ii and R1. AF I'd bet is just catch up though, but that's still good. RAW pre-capture seems like a must happen.

I really do expect to see a push in framerates.

I doubt we'll see a new sensor, that's probably the next cycle beyond the Z9ii.

The A1ii really is a 20 FPS camera without dropping down to 12 bit and losing a little in the files. Those HE* compressed files basically don't lose anything and they're still 14 bit. Nikon just needs to push the hardware a little to beat Sony in that regard on this Z9ii. I would think having RED's RAW compression tech would help with that as well.

I'm surprised we have not seen in camera stills grab ability from RAW video either. Maybe that's just way too much to process in camera.

I'm LOVE to see the ability to grab 12 bit NEF's out of 8.3K60 in camera.

And clearly the reward for this is customer's like you who will pay to use the highest performing gear available.

 

[John Navitsky]

i’m in line either way, but i seriously hope c2pa doesn’t require a new camera

 

[Ltgk20]

Not to derail the conversation, but the compressed raw files on the A1ii are 13 bit.

 

[MarkG]

Honestly, it's not like the z9 is behind anyone in real world use. It's all close. I think there's a huge portion of people that think nikon is super far behind or w/e, but that's just not reality.

Maybe not in AF performance... maybe Nikon is behind in AF user experience/usability? When I see Steve's "how to hand-off AF with Nikon" tutorials, it feels like achieving great results is unnecessarily complex. FWIW, I never used Nikon. Have had Sony a1 for years, and using AF is very simple and intuitive. Achieving great results is easy.

 

[Cameron T]

Maybe not in AF performance... maybe Nikon is behind in AF user experience/usability? When I see Steve's "how to hand-off AF with Nikon" tutorials, it feels like achieving great results is unnecessarily complex. FWIW, I never used Nikon. Have had Sony a1 for years, and using AF is very simple and intuitive. Achieving great results is easy.

You can use auto mode and it does really well.

If you can, give it a shot. If a person can't get results with any of the big 3 easily, the problem isn't the camera. People just like to complain about things because that's the default anymore.

 

[Whiskeyman]

It's almost like Nikon cameras are incapable of taking a good photo!!

Not at all! If Nikon's cameras stay where they are, they're still a lot more camera than my talents can fully utilize. Like in the past, Nikon can lead with their lens offerings and do very well.

 

[Mark_Laidlaw]

Maybe not in AF performance... maybe Nikon is behind in AF user experience/usability? When I see Steve's "how to hand-off AF with Nikon" tutorials, it feels like achieving great results is unnecessarily complex. FWIW, I never used Nikon. Have had Sony a1 for years, and using AF is very simple and intuitive. Achieving great results is easy.

Nikon's just need more user input. It's less "automagic"

 

[fcotterill]

It's almost like Nikon cameras are incapable of taking a good photo!!

Not at all! If Nikon's cameras stay where they are, they're still a lot more camera than my talents can fully utilize. Like in the past, Nikon can lead with their lens offerings and do very well.

Nikon's just need more user input. It's less "automagic"

You both nailed it
Nikon Mirrorless with the Z9 AF sometimes need taking more control of Subject Recognition and/or when the on sensor AF hardware struggles with the scene contrast. Hence the well known tactics; AF Override; turning off SR; Prefocusing; MF tweak

Usually I find a tight custom area mode tightens the AF search space, including a 1*1 C1 which is "SR-Spot" AF mode. Usually my D6 doesn't struggle in this kinds of situations but no silent shutter and slower fps etc.

Other experienced Photographers find an AF Override to a small Dynamic mode works

Off topic for this thread, but discussions pop up regularly about AF challenges e.g.
https://bcgforums.com/threads/nikon-z9-vs-z8…-not-what-i-expected….40348/post-447174

 

[arbitrage]

Nikon's MILCs do have less "automagic" but they also have less options to make it do what you are after. So really the are the worst of both worlds. That is not to say they aren't really good. Just any argument saying that not being as automagic as Sony or Canon is some sort of "pro" is a poor argument as the other cameras are more customizable on one hand and more automagic on the other hand.

Nikon used to be the king of Automagic. The D500, D850, D5, D6 Auto AF modes were pure brilliance. They are what caused me to sell off all my Canon gear and to only shoot Sony A9 as a "nice toy to try". I almost never used any mode other than Auto AF for action. Only using Single pt and Group for non-action.
The latest Z9/Z8 FW once Bird mode was added has brought the AutoAF closer to the DSLR version. But it still lacks that magic.

 

[JAJohnson]

I started this thread to begin discussion about a possible Nikon Z9II. There are other threads in which Forum members have expressed what they perceive as merits and demerits of Nikon mirrorless AF capabilities in comparison to that of other brands. May I ask restraint from rehashing it all over again? Thanks to all who have commented.

 

[Shaggstone]

You can use auto mode and it does really well.

If you can, give it a shot. If a person can't get results with any of the big 3 easily, the problem isn't the camera. People just like to complain about things because that's the default anymore.

Your last sentence says it all.

 

[JAJohnson]

Mmmm…I was wrong. Looking a bit deeper into this, there are some high-speed memory and supporting pre-processors on the stacked circuitry on the sensor, supporting capturing two data-streams, and then feeding it directly and independently to the Expeed 7 processor, where (mostly) duplicate image-processors manipulate the data and export the processed streams separately to the EVF and the image-storage, i.e CFE card(s).

This is the cleanest way to do it in any event, with the lowest latency, but it speaks volumes to the capability of the Processor. Luckily, it appears there’s a fair bit of pre-processing done on the stacked circuitry, so I am still hopeful there is a fair bit of processing-horsepower available for RAW-precapture, at least where the Expeed 7 is concerned. Who knows what the pre-processors and memory on the stacked circuits can handle though. Of course, pre-capture buffer-size might also be a major limitation. View attachment 106750

I think you are correct, @beano. The following is from an interview with several Nikon personnel involved in Z9 development It was republished by Nikon Japan two years ago and originally published by Hobby Japan. Thanks to @fcotterill for finding this informative interview.

Z 9 開発者Special Interview vol.1～フラッグシップ機「Z 9」の開発コンセプトと注目の新機能～ | ニコンイメージング

ニコンZシリーズ〝フラッグシップ機〞フルサイズミラーレス「Z9」。開発コンセプトから、注目の新機能まで、ニコン開発陣のインタビュー記事をご紹介いたします。

www.nikon-image.com

~~~~
Fujiwara: Conventional sensors could not output live view data until all the data for still image shooting was output when shooting still images. Dual Stream is a technology that has two types of image data output lanes that can output live view data while outputting still image shooting data.

──Does it mean that there are not two data at the output stage from the pixel?

Fujiwara: Yes. One data output from the pixel is divided into data for still image recording and data for live view on the multilayer circuit in the sensor.
~~~~

From this I infer that the dual stream circuitry is either embedded in the sensor or is immediately adjacent to it in terms of data flow.

 

[John Navitsky]

good find. that implies the data is different coming out of those streams in size and speed

 

[JAJohnson]

There is a part 2 to the interview I referenced in post #68. Again, a big thanks to @fcotterill for finding this interview!

Z 9 開発者Special Interview vol.2～光学性能と小型化を追求したZ マウントシステムの開発意図と誕生秘話～ | ニコンイメージング

新次元の光学性能、システムの小型化、そして使いやすさを追求するニコン Z マウントシステム。具体的な製品の誕生秘話まで、Z マウントの開発意図や背景から、光学設計と商品企画プロダクトマネジャーのインタビュー記事をご紹介いたします。

www.nikon-image.com

 

[fcotterill]

Further to above:-

--Is the live view data used for any other purposes?

Tanaka:　We use live view data for calculations such as AE/AWB, and we also use it for subject recognition

I remembered these discussions about this in 2022 soon after the Z9 was out. It's one reason why poor light and/of underexposure can influence AF performance, because the camera relies on the EVF data stream

Z9 AF Operation Observations by Thom Hogan

I found the observation that the Z9 af is better if the image displayed in the VF is properly exposed interesting: https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/reader-questions-answered.html

bcgforums.com

Does changing Picture Control Sharpness improve AutoFocus accuracy with Mirrorless bodies in low light?

In his Z System user blog Tom Hogan recently posted "I've long had a back and forth with some about how well the Z9 focuses in low light. My results seem better than their experience. When it finally sunk into my head that the focus decision wasn't coming from a pre-Picture Control data stream...

bcgforums.com

 

[JAJohnson]

Further to above:-

--Is the live view data used for any other purposes?

Tanaka:　We use live view data for calculations such as AE/AWB, and we also use it for subject recognition

I remembered these discussions about this in 2022 soon after the Z9 was out. It's one reason why poor light and/of underexposure can influence AF performance, because the camera relies on the EVF data stream

Indeed. This is one of the factors in which I expect improvement in a Z9II.

 

[John Navitsky]

i expect improvements, but it would be slightly surprising if they changed the amount of data for the evf stream since it implies they would have to change the sensor assembly (although possible)

 

[fcotterill]

A new EXPEED processor is overdue, considering the demands to improve data processing and an updated EVF etc. Socionext fabs these ASIC multicore processers, which are Nikon's proprietary designs and specifications.

This is probably more cost effective than upgrading the stacked sensor, unless it's also feasible to update the peripheral circuitry encircling the core of photo sensitive and AF pixels. Whatever Nikon has already decided, the timeline points to an EXPEED refresh :

EXPEED4 - July 2014 in D810
EXPEED5 - January 2016 in D5
EXPEED6 - August 2018 in Z7
EXPEED7 - October 2021 - Z9

 

[S⊕TA]

How much of this is real? We’ll see. I also expect some AF improvements (we’ve chewed over that at length on BCG Forums), some UI refinement, support for CFe 4.0 cards, and some improvement in pre-capture (perhaps HE* at 30 fps or more).

• The new Z9II will not be a major update from the current Z9 – think about the Nikon D5->D6 update
• It should be announced before the 2026 Olympics (February 2026)
• It will have new RED video features
• Same sensor
• EVF from the Nikon Z6III (5760k dot)
• Content credentials

https://nikonrumors.com/category/nikon-z9ii/

I hope Nikon will support CF Express 4.0 (or greater) in the new Z9. That would be a sensible move, yes?

It would open up many possibilities, including support for dual expeed 7 or newer capabilities.

As for global shutter, well, I am sure we'd all welcome it, but only if they overcome the DR/IQ issues. I can't imagine Nikon would want to release a product with worse DR/IQ vs. what they have now. I mean, the Z9/8 DR/IQ is absolutely stellar, even if it's marginally less that the D850/Z7ii. I would love to see if they could improve the DR/IQ of dual-stack sensor.

For me, image quality is key. I owned a D850 and was completely happy with it, however, in prep for the 2024 total solar eclipse I decided to go all-in for the Z9 and even purchased a Z8 as a second camera for the event. To expand a bit on the decision, the high frame rate capture of Z9/8 allowed me to capture specific features of the eclipse that would be practically impossible with the D850. I struggled for a long time with the decision, but was so happy I did. The marginal differences in DR/IQ between the Z9/8 vs. the D850 paled in comparison to the performance gains in capture speeds. Plus I now own superior glass.

I will only make a move to the next camera system if better DR/IQ is present.