A good comment that raises an interesting point that may have gotten lost somewhere: I did discover playing around with it one day that when moving the camera
slowly to follow a moving target, the AF would tend to hang onto the target much better, but if I move it
suddenly, the AF will let go right away. So for instance, if someone is walking across the frame slowly and I put a dynamic area center box on them and then pan with them and intentionally let the center box fall off but keep the helper points on, it
does maintain focus, at least a lot of the time. If on the other hand someone moves
suddenly so I have to move suddenly and keep the helper point on the target, it lets go immediately and refocuses on the background (this is true regardless of how a3 is set to steady vs erratic).
This might tie into what you're saying about being "shaky." What does it mean to be shaky, after all? It means that you are making a lot of sudden movements in different directions.
The problem is with things like animals darting off or birds taking flight, or a goalkeeper diving for a shot or an athlete breaking suddenly for the ball you
have to move the camera suddenly and quickly. In these cases, it's not "being shaky" - it's just the nature of trying to follow the subject which has moved quickly and suddenly. (If using a custom area box with subject detect on or off, it tends to let go and refocus very nearly immediately either way, which makes sense since there is no margin for error built into those modes).
This may explain why some people over on DPR are posting a lot of stereotypical soccer "tracking shots" that look like this one and saying that they don't have any problems:
View attachment 99671
When you are just following players down the field, you can move the camera at a fairly steady, not sudden pace.
When you want to get a goalkeeper making a stop on the ball or a heron pouncing after a fish a few meters away, then even if you do a perfect job following them - indeed, even if you can anticipate the movement and can get the camera moving a split second early to make sure you're staying with it - you are going to be moving it very suddenly and quickly, and this is the situation where it seems to lose focus almost every time.
Regarding VR, I have tried it in sport and off (and a little bit in regular just for the sake of completeness) to see how much of a difference it might make. I didn't notice one.