Super Telephoto Zoom(s) in the Future: 300-700mm?

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Beware - this a speculative post ;):) .... One gap in the telephoto options of Nikon's Greater Ecosystem is a super telephoto zoom [chart / map appended for comparisons]. Yes, there's the roadmapped 200-600 in Z-mount but as it stands it's not a S Line optic, so we have zero clue about its performance, especially with a TC14. So it's intriguing to speculate at what super telephoto(s) might appear in the future.... Based on recent trends in features of the telephotos released for Z mount and widely appreciated/sought after.

New types of optical technology and lighter polymers for telephoto "fuselage" have been invented since the MF era. We see these in new lens coatings, Super-ED and SR glass, as well as wider use of weight-saving fluorite elements. The biggest innovation inaugurated in the dinky 300 f4E PF Nikkor. This followed Nikon's achieving the mass production of very high quality Phase-Fresnel elements sufficiently large enough to be used as the "keystone" in a telephoto. Nikon has also mastered building internal Teleconverters in telephotos.

The 3.5kg 180-400 f4E TC14 (August 2018) and 3.25kg 120-300 f2.8E SR brought high optical quality to extend the telephoto reach of the 70-200 f2.8E FL; most impressive is their high prime-like optical quality [Aperture Independent Sharpness as Brad Hill calls it]. Nikon has also responded to requests to build lighter telephotos, and they admit to recognizing this market demand in interviews: hence the revolution that launched this year in the 2.3kg 800 f6.3S PF. It has changed the telephoto ecosystem in key respects.

Back in the manual focus era, Nikon made a 200-600 f9.5, released in 1976, and soon after a 3.4kg 180-600 f8, which persisted until 1998 after it was updated to AIS. A 360-1200 f11 was first released in 1976, soon superseded by the 8.25 kg AI/AIS model. There was also the legendary 16kg 1200-1700mm f5.6-8AIP IF-ED introduced in 1990 and only built to special order!

After contemplating the aforementioned gap of a Supertelephoto-zoom niche, I have been wondering how something like a 300-700 f4/5.6 would be extremely versatile for many situations in wildlife photography. Even better if it's S Line, and ideally with a built in Teleconverter, a TC14. The lens speed is biggest factor in the design cost of an exotic telephoto, which is prescribed by the highest magnification; thus for example 700 f4.8 = 146mm ø. 600 f4 = 150mm ø.

This cost jumps up rapidly at long focal lengths; the optical window asymmetrically expands for relatively small increases of lens speed ! As a guide it's noteworthy the 180-400 weighs 3.5kg, while the new 600 f4S TC weighs 3.26kg (even with its new internal organ, this is distinctly lighter than the 3.8kg 600 f4E FL). And of course, a telephoto zoom adds yet more mechanical weight besides the internal TC.

All considered, I think perhaps a 300-600 f4.8 (125mm ø window) might be preferable: also "TC-Friendly". And many photographers prefer a constant speed Zoom. Howsoever the magnifications & lens speed are divvied up for such a supertele zoom, an internal TC14 has so many advantages for the relatively low weight (BUT adds up to an even higher price). These features would push its status and price into the realm of the 600 f4 TC! And such an exotic zoom would obviously work best in an Internal Zoom.

Super Telephoto
ø mm Optical Window
With TC14
Comments
180-400 f4E TC14
100​
252-560 f5.6​
Superb optic and versatile. Poor with external TC
300-700mm f4/5.6 TC14
125​
420-980 f5.6/8​
Possibly 3.8kg
300-600mm f4.8 TC14
125​
420-840 f6.7​
3.8kg possible

Telephotos Options Nikkors 14Dec2021.jpg
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I like the idea of the 300-700 but have little faith such exotic zooms will make a comeback.
But i'd like nikon to think about variable TCs, a 1.0-2.0x would be quite useful, if 1.0 'magnification' was as good as the bare lens or close to.
 
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