Z Roadmap 20Sept 2022, Nikon brochures

If you would like to post, you'll need to register. Note that if you have a BCG store account, you'll need a new, separate account here (we keep the two sites separate for security purposes).

I totally agree. My bet is that the 200-600 has been ready to go for a year - maybe more. It probably has very good performance and would limit sales of the more expensive telephotos Nikon has introduced. You can only hope that Nikon has a warehouse full of them ready to go when announced. The SONY 200-600 was introduced three and a half years ago.
I don't think Nikon would sit on a warehouse full of these lenses. A 200-600 appeals to a different audience, an audience where many shifted brands and that is looking at a different price point compared to the other options Nikon released recently.

They would want to sell as much as they can as fast as they can.
 
How many long lenses do Sony A1 owners have to choose from? Then look at the pro sports and wildlife photographers who have the 400 and/or 600. Don't A9 and A7riv owners also have the 200-600 lens?

I'm not saying Z9 owners would not buy it - just that the target market is much broader than that segment. The Z9 is 7% of unit sales of camera bodies. Even looking at just Nikon mirrorless, the Z9 only 20% of camera bodies sold. That's great for a flagship body - but not for enthusiasts. For camera companies, flagship bodies are the place for cutting edge performance and innovation - not what you build your business on. You need enthusiast camera bodies for volume.
I have 200 600 mm & I have used 600 mm . As a wild life & bird shooter I don’t require any other focal length
 
Every one of my friends has Sony 200-600....guess what body they all have....A1...more expensive than Z9. So I don't buy that as a reason at all. If it is Nikon's reason they need new management.
I totally agree . I bought A1 mainly because of the availability & good review of 200 600
I am very glad that my decision has benefitted me
I also have z9 which I use with 500 PF & I am waiting for 200 600 . As of now I use Z9 only for video
 
...I bought A1 mainly because of the availability & good review of 200 600
I am very glad that my decision has benefitted me
I also have z9 which I use with 500 PF...
Likewise I bought the A1/200-600 in lieu of anything similar in the Nikon lineup. And the 500mm PF and now prospect of the 800mm PF are the only things keeping me with Nikon. I hate being stuck in the middle with two systems. But short term I don't see an alternative. Sony doesn't have the "prosumer" long primes that I'm interested in and Nikon doesn't have a gripless high performing camera nor a zoom competitive with the 200-600. So my love/hate relationship with Nikon continues. :(
 
They'd withhold a lens from the market so they can sell more of the lenses they have a hard time delivering? There's no logic in this strategy.
The 100-400 and the 400 f/4.5 are readily available at most shops. The 800mm PF remains heavily backlogged but is shipping.

I agree - they would not hold back a lens in favor of these other items. I'm pretty sure the 200-600 is waiting for the companion camera - probably very soon.

Nikon's latest financial report projects 140,000 more ILC units sold in the second half of the year compared to the first half. That's a big increase, and suggests the camera Dan described (a gripless Z9-like camera targeting enthusiasts) is about to be announced AND shipped. It's probably more than one camera - maybe a DX version as well.
 
The difference between an A1+200-600 and a Z9+200-600 is surely going to be less than a pound. Anyone turned off by that wouldn't be buying a Z9, anyway.

If they had a 200-600 ready, they'd be shipping it.

Nikon's 200-600 is likely to be their best seller for wildlife users for many years. I can only imagine how much effort is being paid to pushing their cost/size/IQ envelope.

In short order, Nikon has shipped the 100-400, 600/4, 400/2.8, 400/4.5, and 800/6.3. They can clearly turn out designs very quickly. Unless someone gets a wild hair about making a 300/2.8, we should see the 200-600 pretty soon. My 500PF is quaking in its boots. :)
 
...Nikon's latest financial report projects 140,000 more ILC units sold in the second half of the year compared to the first half. That's a big increase, and suggests the camera Dan described (a gripless Z9-like camera targeting enthusiasts) is about to be announced AND shipped. It's probably more than one camera - maybe a DX version as well.
That's interesting. I hope you're reading the tea leaves accurately :)
 
Besides prioritizing the f2.8S and f4S exotic telephotos for World Cup this year, the need for a more affordable MILC is a possible reason. It will be logical to release the 200-600 with a more affordable DX Z90 or FX Z8: both with Z9 technology (per Nikon's stated aims)
 
Besides prioritizing the f2.8S and f4S exotic telephotos for World Cup this year, the need for a more affordable MILC is a possible reason. It will be logical to release the 200-600 with a more affordable DX Z90 or FX Z8: both with Z9 technology (per Nikon's stated aims)
yah, i think we’ll see another high end camera and the 200-600 announced “soon”
 
Besides from having a camera to go along w/ the 200-600, Nikon could be delaying the lens for several reasons

1. Need to have sufficient quantity to meet expected very high demand.

2. Redesigning the lens to match or exceed the Sony 200-600 (bragging rights)

3. Allocating resources / parts to currently announced lenses and cameras (chip shortage).

4. Other ideas?
 
The 100-400 and the 400 f/4.5 are readily available at most shops. The 800mm PF remains heavily backlogged but is shipping.

I agree - they would not hold back a lens in favor of these other items. I'm pretty sure the 200-600 is waiting for the companion camera - probably very soon.

Nikon's latest financial report projects 140,000 more ILC units sold in the second half of the year compared to the first half. That's a big increase, and suggests the camera Dan described (a gripless Z9-like camera targeting enthusiasts) is about to be announced AND shipped. It's probably more than one camera - maybe a DX version as well.
we can only hope ..
 
Besides from having a camera to go along w/ the 200-600, Nikon could be delaying the lens for several reasons

1. Need to have sufficient quantity to meet expected very high demand.

2. Redesigning the lens to match or exceed the Sony 200-600 (bragging rights)

3. Allocating resources / parts to currently announced lenses and cameras (chip shortage).

4. Other ideas?
Waiting for the contract with Tamron to be signed and agreed-to on specs and production costs. I have a feeling this lens may be a re-worked Tamron 150-600. Making it a 200-600 really only takes a slight tweak in the zoom mechanism.

Hope I'm wrong on this one but...
Jeff
 
Waiting for the contract with Tamron to be signed and agreed-to on specs and production costs. I have a feeling this lens may be a re-worked Tamron 150-600. Making it a 200-600 really only takes a slight tweak in the zoom mechanism.

Hope I'm wrong on this one but...
Jeff
The rebranded Tamron lenses to this point don’t appear to be reworked in anyway. They just changed the outside casing and branding. Reworking a 150-600mm into a 200-600mm doesn’t make sense. Why not just keep it 150-600mm? Wouldn’t that technically be slightly more useful and easier to accomplish? Factor in that the 200-600mm has been on the early roadmaps before any of the Tamron stuff showed up I see it as very unlikely.
 
The rebranded Tamron lenses to this point don’t appear to be reworked in anyway. They just changed the outside casing and branding. Reworking a 150-600mm into a 200-600mm doesn’t make sense. Why not just keep it 150-600mm? Wouldn’t that technically be slightly more useful and easier to accomplish? Factor in that the 200-600mm has been on the early roadmaps before any of the Tamron stuff showed up I see it as very unlikely.
hope you're right. As for reworking - well, Nikon has had the 200-600 on the roadmap for a very long time. To give up and bring out a rebranded 150-600 would be a significant loss of face for Nikon. My only reason for saying this above the longer it takes for Nikon to put out this lens knowing how many people are waiting for it the more I think they may have had to go back to the drawing board and offering something from Tamron (or Sigma or someone else) could get them out of the hole.
 
Besides from having a camera to go along w/ the 200-600, Nikon could be delaying the lens for several reasons

1. Need to have sufficient quantity to meet expected very high demand.

2. Redesigning the lens to match or exceed the Sony 200-600 (bragging rights)

3. Allocating resources / parts to currently announced lenses and cameras (chip shortage).

4. Other ideas?
I think their engineers keep reworking it. In the latest Ricci/Westminster video (think I have that right) posted in another thread, Ricci addresses a viewer question as to where the 200-600 was. He seemed to truthfully answer that he had no idea where the lens was.

If Nikon was simply stockpiling lenses awaiting a release date, Ricci’s answer would have been a nonanswer and/or his body language and mannerisms would have been quite different.

If that Z8 in 2023 rumor pans out, perhaps Nikon is aiming at a joint release of the Z8 and 200-600 as early as February.
 
Makes sense... Next new Nikon camera early in 2023

What Thom says does make sense in the way he says it, but Nikon releasing a Z30 and black Zfc this year while a large part of their user base continues to hold out waiting for something midrange to be released is causing a lot of people to lose patience. Whether it leads to frustration or them jumping to another brand, neither is favorable. With the holiday season approaching, they would likely do well releasing an updated Z6 which appeals to many people and is still cheap enough that it would be bought for the holidays. If the next camera comes in spring, it really would need to be cameras and they would need to be great releases. There needs to be a smaller, performance oriented body and a great midlevel consumer body that will generate excitement. It would also be nice to see a performance DX body and a high resolution FX option. They also need to get the rest of their lens roadmap lenses released. If they can do those things in the next six months, they will jump ahead of the competition. If they drag it out, the competition might stay ahead. This of course is just my non expert opinion.
 
What Thom says does make sense in the way he says it, but Nikon releasing a Z30 and black Zfc this year while a large part of their user base continues to hold out waiting for something midrange to be released is causing a lot of people to lose patience. Whether it leads to frustration or them jumping to another brand, neither is favorable. With the holiday season approaching, they would likely do well releasing an updated Z6 which appeals to many people and is still cheap enough that it would be bought for the holidays. If the next camera comes in spring, it really would need to be cameras and they would need to be great releases. There needs to be a smaller, performance oriented body and a great midlevel consumer body that will generate excitement. It would also be nice to see a performance DX body and a high resolution FX option. They also need to get the rest of their lens roadmap lenses released. If they can do those things in the next six months, they will jump ahead of the competition. If they drag it out, the competition might stay ahead. This of course is just my non expert opinion.
Yes, and Nikon must recognize this, surely. OTTH the Tokyo beancounters have balanced the books of Nikon Imaging rather well since restructuring Imaging Division away from consumer cameras, so Nikon's revenue exceeds projected profits.

The beginnings of Nikon's turn around started at least 7 years earlier, when they restructuring of their industries undergirded by high optical technology, which is integrated with cutting edge digital technology

As Thom points out, the company seems set on consolidating its fiscal position in improved profits by leveraging where the "....increases are coming from selling more Z6/Z7/Z9/D850/D6 type of product and less Zfc/Z30/Z50/Z5/Dxxx types". The big gaps are the cameras, which will extend "popular advanced features..." of the Z9 into other FX cameras, and ideally a DX Z90. So although Nikon has committed to such cameras but with no firm delivery dates.

This underlies the stated aim to increase from 1:1.8 (in 2021) to a 2:1 ratio (by 2025) of Lenses : Cameras sold [cf. row of histograms in 1st slide below]. Apparently, they earn higher margins from per unit from lens sales, but obviously this is still subject to the absolute numbers shipped of the core imaging devices ;-) Indeed, the same page on this April 2022 Investors Report projects Nikon's DCIL sales increasing from 490 (2021) to 700 (2025) by when Nikon predicts most of these cameras shipping will be "Mid/High-end Models for Pro/Hobbyists" (The milkcow that was the consumer DX market is projected to shrink significantly, probably to Z30, Zfc, Z50, Z5.) But logically a DX Z90 type MILC will be released in the Pro/Hobbyist category. See the pdf of their Medium-Term Management Plan (FY2022 - 2025) and see comments on this on pg2 above in this thread, but mainly in this thread ]

These margins are probably highest for telephotos, for which are mostly backordered eg 400 f4.5S, 400 f2.8S TC and 800 PF. Nonetheless, the Z lens system has come a long way in 4 years - currently with 7 Z optics still mapped to complete by April 2023 = a grand total of 39 optics, which is projected to increase further to 50+ by end of the Financial Year 2025.

It does appear Nikon's factories are working at capacity, especially given recent and continuing constraints with shortages of key parts. It's also taken them nearly a year for their supply chain to catchup on Z9 demand. It's possible any new prosumer cameras will return to a similar situation of backlogged orders ! However, the pandemic has complicated tech product shortages worldwide over the past 2 years.

Nikon 2022 23_IR Day_Digital Imaging_e_1_Page_4.jpg
You can only see EXIF info for this image if you are logged in.




IR Report May 2022 deploy Z9 features_50+ lenses.jpg
You can only see EXIF info for this image if you are logged in.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top