Now that we have the Z6iii released did we learn anything about where Nikon is headed from here with camera releases

[fcotterill]

A high performance DX mirrorless camera for the Z System hangs on Nikon using a new DX sensor. Hypothetically, it would likely be a Partially-Stacked design given what we now know. The biggest question is it cheaper in total volume of potential sales to do FX rather a DX sensor?

However Nikon moves forward, it is clear that "....Nikon has a fairly extensive sensor design group who's still quite active in patenting not-yet-seen technologies. That Nikon sensor group also works with Nikon Precision. Who works with Sony Semiconductor....."

And most importantly, Nikon "...is back to its old position of being a technology pioneer, and intends to stay there. All of which is good news for Z System users."

Knowing and Watching | Thom Hogan

Knowing about the Z6 III before it was launched gives a special perspective on rumors

www.zsystemuser.com

 

[abc123brian]

but i'd say the z6iii is close enough to the z8 that the primary differentiator is the higher mp and stacked.

if you push the existing stacked sensor into the small body, it'd just be a mini z8 and you couldn't differentiate enough without borrowing the cripple-hammer which is never a good look and even then, you couldn't really cripple it more than the z6iii, and that's not really very crippled (other than banks, maybe).

it would work if you waited until the z8ii came out with the expeed8, then ran the z7iii with the expeed7, but i don't think we can expect a z8ii anytime soon

but i think you're right. EVENTUALLY we'll see them trickle this sensor down. but i don't think that makes sense until they have something new and better for the top bodies.

Interestingly everyone was saying the same about the Z8 and that Nikon wouldn’t make it a mini Z9, but it really doesn’t make sense to have three cameras like that. I think with the Z7 series, just adding the expeed7 like on the Zf and keeping the price the same might be enough. It wouldn’t be a high fps camera, but would have more capable AF for users who don’t need the high fps. It would also improve the video capabilities while keeping it far enough from price from Z8. A lot of portrait photographers like the mechanical shutter for flash work as it seems some had issues with third party flashes with the electronic shutter only Z8/Z9.

 

[Anjin San]

Interestingly everyone was saying the same about the Z8 and that Nikon wouldn’t make it a mini Z9, but it really doesn’t make sense to have three cameras like that. I think with the Z7 series, just adding the expeed7 like on the Zf and keeping the price the same might be enough. It wouldn’t be a high fps camera, but would have more capable AF for users who don’t need the high fps. It would also improve the video capabilities while keeping it far enough from price from Z8. A lot of portrait photographers like the mechanical shutter for flash work as it seems some had issues with third party flashes with the electronic shutter only Z8/Z9.

I always expected a mini Z9…but I expected the Z7III to be it or a Z8 and the 7 series ended. Some of us don’t need or want a grip, like lighter, are willing to accept slightly less weather proofing, and the battery life which is actually a non issue in reality for me..sure…battery life is less than a Z9 but stick an extra in your pocket and you’re set…and even 3 extras would still weigh less than a Z9. From a tech standpoint…they could certainly make a Z7III with similar specs to the Z6III but 45MP…but with the Z6III at 2500 and the Z8 at 3500 or less a lot of the time there’s not a lot of room in the price table for it…and sales would either canibalize Z8 sales or people would skip it for a Z8. And they would need a partially stacked 45 MP sensor and associated cheaper cost or they could use the more expensive Z8/9 sensor and that exacerbates the price point issue. I have no idea where a Z7IIi would fit in the price range or what would really differentiate it from a Z8…it’s much like the mythical D500 mirrorless…there just isn’t room for it.

Saw the comment about banks vs User Modes…they should combine them and offer a menu choice to make them sticky or not and meet the wants of everybody. Either works…and switching user modes is actually faster than swapping banks and puts you into a known configuration…so for myself I would prefer sticky banks over what we have now…but I can take either way.

 

[abc123brian]

I always expected a mini Z9…but I expected the Z7III to be it or a Z8 and the 7 series ended. Some of us don’t need or want a grip, like lighter, are willing to accept slightly less weather proofing, and the battery life which is actually a non issue in reality for me..sure…battery life is less than a Z9 but stick an extra in your pocket and you’re set…and even 3 extras would still weigh less than a Z9. From a tech standpoint…they could certainly make a Z7III with similar specs to the Z6III but 45MP…but with the Z6III at 2500 and the Z8 at 3500 or less a lot of the time there’s not a lot of room in the price table for it…and sales would either canibalize Z8 sales or people would skip it for a Z8. And they would need a partially stacked 45 MP sensor and associated cheaper cost or they could use the more expensive Z8/9 sensor and that exacerbates the price point issue. I have no idea where a Z7IIi would fit in the price range or what would really differentiate it from a Z8…it’s much like the mythical D500 mirrorless…there just isn’t room for it.

Saw the comment about banks vs User Modes…they should combine them and offer a menu choice to make them sticky or not and meet the wants of everybody. Either works…and switching user modes is actually faster than swapping banks and puts you into a known configuration…so for myself I would prefer sticky banks over what we have now…but I can take either way.

I don’t think most people expected the Z8 to be as similar as it is to the Z9. The Z8 is the camera i wanted it to be and I really like it. I agree that a Z7 may not be needed, but I do think they could take the Z7ii, swap the dual expeed 6 for a Expeed 7, give it the updated AF and I think they could easily keep it $2999 and it would differentiated enough from Z6 and Z8. I didn’t see them making a Z500 option until they announced this Z6iii. I think an APS-C version of that sensor would make a lot of sense and position it well against the competition. Both Sony and Panasonic offer APC-C cameras in the mid $1k range, even Fuji has them so people are buying them. A partially stacked sensor DX 24+MP sensor would be very competitive if priced right.

I would like to see the option for sticky banks. I get the idea that one is considered ”pro” the other “consumer “ but in practice it’s not really convenient when going back and forth between bodies. Your idea of combining them makes sense to me.

 

[JAJohnson]

On this evening's Z 6III webinar Thom Hogan offered that that Nikon may be considering a rangefinder camera leveraging an Expeed 7 processor (perhaps called Zs ???) and also a video-centric bridge camera positioned between the current Z lineup and the RED Komodo (with an 80+ mp sensor ???). These comments seemed to be his guesses at what Nikon may be up to but aren't based on inside info from Nikon personnel.

 

[Tom Reynolds]

A more interesting question is where is the market going and which companies are trying to chase it.

I have long held the view that the market is saturated and the Z-8/9 and A1 are good enough for all but the most picky professionals.

For casual vacation photographers the new cell phones are also good enough and I see them basically ending the P&S market.

So, who is the target for a low-cost MILC, interchangeable camera like the Z6iii and its competitors? I think the target is Birders and the R6iii and competitors are ill suited and possess a photographer's view rather than a birder's view of what is attractive to a Birder.

After signing on to a birders expedition one time I have some thoughts on what would be attractive to birders.

1-Lots of reach. A birder sees a bird flying in the distance and the leader rules out certain birds and announces it as a such and such. Some birders check their sheets and are satisfied but most birders require that THEY, not the leader identifies the bird.
2-Interface with bird identification software. The birders need a picture for iBird Photo Sluth to identify a bird and binoculars don't take them, so some use their iPhones and hope for enough photo to get an ID.
3-Light weight. Birders hang binoculars around their neck and MAT tolerate a camera/lens on a Black Rapids strap but I am thinking that over 4# would discourage most birders. (I draw this conclusion because I don't see many spotting scopes out there.)
4-Low cost. Birders are not big spenders. Mostly they are cheap geriatrics.
5-Not complicated. Subect ID makes everything easier but otherwise a good AUTO mode.

In my view the Canon R-7/100-400 come closest to meeting birders needs. I feel that my OM-1/100-400 is too expensive for most birders.

So where is Nikon going? No place that makes any sense in my view.

Tom

 

[fcotterill]

A more interesting question is where is the market going and which companies are trying to chase it.

I have long held the view that the market is saturated and the Z-8/9 and A1 are good enough for all but the most picky professionals.

Enthusiasts are surely the larger cohort of customers and many buy more cameras, lenses, tripods etc than they need, let alone actually use

For casual vacation photographers the new cell phones are also good enough and I see them basically ending the P&S market.

So, who is the target for a low-cost MILC, interchangeable camera like the Z6iii and its competitors? I think the target is Birders and the R6iii and competitors are ill suited and possess a photographer's view rather than a birder's view of what is attractive to a Birder.

Safari travellers as well as general tourists, for whom a smartphone is inadequate.

Wedding and Event photographers are probably the biggest market for the Z6 III, for whom a Hybrid lighter mirrorless ICL is ideal

After signing on to a birders expedition one time I have some thoughts on what would be attractive to birders.

1-Lots of reach. A birder sees a bird flying in the distance and the leader rules out certain birds and announces it as a such and such. Some birders check their sheets and are satisfied but most birders require that THEY, not the leader identifies the bird.
2-Interface with bird identification software. The birders need a picture for iBird Photo Sluth to identify a bird and binoculars don't take them, so some use their iPhones and hope for enough photo to get an ID.

Yes

3-Light weight. Birders hang binoculars around their neck and MAT tolerate a camera/lens on a Black Rapids strap but I am thinking that over 4# would discourage most birders. (I draw this conclusion because I don't see many spotting scopes out there.)

This is where the PhaseFresnel telephotos hit the sweet spot. A 800 PF can double up as a spotting scope.

The obvious gap for Nikon still to fill is a DX D500 update - compact lighter Z8 - that leverages the crop factor of lighter, shorter telephotos (eg 400 f4.5S, 600 f6.3S) and gets sufficient Pixels/Duck.... And that is relatively affordable.

4-Low cost. Birders are not big spenders. Mostly they are cheap geriatrics.

A large number travel the world, improving life lists etc. A lighter ICL with 2 or 3 lenses are a smaller outlay compared to accommodations, which tend to be expensive.

Nikon like Canon are still fattening on the DSLR> MILC upgraders

The market will probably shrink, once this lucrative period is complete.

5-Not complicated. Subect ID makes everything easier but otherwise a good AUTO mode.

In my view the Canon R-7/100-400 come closest to meeting birders needs. I feel that my OM-1/100-400 is too expensive for most birders.

So where is Nikon going? No place that makes any sense in my view.

Video

{Edited}

 

[John Navitsky]

it is a good point tho, hard to imagine more casual users ever feeling like they need to upgrade from something like the r6ii or z6iii

 

[JAJohnson]

it is a good point tho, hard to imagine more casual users ever feeling like they need to upgrade from something like the r6ii or z6iii

Consumers find it difficult to resist acquiring the latest version to replace gear they already own. Upgraders will do so as long as they have disposable income to enable it. The power of “NEW” is nearly irresistible.

 

[hef19898]

A more interesting question is where is the market going and which companies are trying to chase it.

I have long held the view that the market is saturated and the Z-8/9 and A1 are good enough for all but the most picky professionals.

For casual vacation photographers the new cell phones are also good enough and I see them basically ending the P&S market.

So, who is the target for a low-cost MILC, interchangeable camera like the Z6iii and its competitors? I think the target is Birders and the R6iii and competitors are ill suited and possess a photographer's view rather than a birder's view of what is attractive to a Birder.

After signing on to a birders expedition one time I have some thoughts on what would be attractive to birders.

1-Lots of reach. A birder sees a bird flying in the distance and the leader rules out certain birds and announces it as a such and such. Some birders check their sheets and are satisfied but most birders require that THEY, not the leader identifies the bird.
2-Interface with bird identification software. The birders need a picture for iBird Photo Sluth to identify a bird and binoculars don't take them, so some use their iPhones and hope for enough photo to get an ID.
3-Light weight. Birders hang binoculars around their neck and MAT tolerate a camera/lens on a Black Rapids strap but I am thinking that over 4# would discourage most birders. (I draw this conclusion because I don't see many spotting scopes out there.)
4-Low cost. Birders are not big spenders. Mostly they are cheap geriatrics.
5-Not complicated. Subect ID makes everything easier but otherwise a good AUTO mode.

In my view the Canon R-7/100-400 come closest to meeting birders needs. I feel that my OM-1/100-400 is too expensive for most birders.

So where is Nikon going? No place that makes any sense in my view.

Tom

A couple of things:

The Z6iii is not necessarily "low cost".

Other markets: landscape, reportage, travel, journalism, all are good markets for the Z6 series. As are events of all kinds or just hobbiests needing / wanting a decent camera. Not everybody needs nor wants 45 MP, or a 4k camera body. Nor can everybody afford it. Or everyone who produces both, stills and videos. The Z6 series is also a decent back-up body for people using something higher tier, e.g. a Z8/9. Because not everyone falls into the rich wildlife photographer bubble on bcg carrying two Z9/8s and glass for 20k bucks. And for those, a Z6iii is actually a great offering. Throw in some decent lenses and it covers everything one can dream of. And for the orice difference between a Z6iii amd Z9 one can get some good glass.

There are a lot of photohraphers out there, that are not sitting with 20k worth of gear taking pictures of birds and such. Or sport events.

Birders are a very small nieche market, and frankly, if you are one and need a "leader" to announce what bird you are seeing, get a grip or a new hobby... And if, as a birder, you need software to tell you what you saw, well, why not just sit there and appreciate the beauty of those animals? Why does it have to be the rarest and most special? I don't get it...

Edit: Another point regarding "Pro Cameras", what exactly is a Pro Camera? One that is used by someone earning his living through photography? If so, that would include *a lot* of bodies, including stuff like a D7000 series or equivalents. Or is it a camera sporting "pro features", if so, what are those "pro features"? And is a Z6iii, or even Z6ii, less pro feature wise than a, say, D3?

Seriously, why do consumers think they now more about target markets and strategy than the manufacturers? Limiting the camera market to the Z9 wildlife crowd is as ridiculous as limting it to the Leica street photography crowd...

 

[Nimi]

A more interesting question is where is the market going and which companies are trying to chase it.

I have long held the view that the market is saturated and the Z-8/9 and A1 are good enough for all but the most picky professionals.

For casual vacation photographers the new cell phones are also good enough and I see them basically ending the P&S market.

So, who is the target for a low-cost MILC, interchangeable camera like the Z6iii and its competitors? I think the target is Birders and the R6iii and competitors are ill suited and possess a photographer's view rather than a birder's view of what is attractive to a Birder.

After signing on to a birders expedition one time I have some thoughts on what would be attractive to birders.

1-Lots of reach. A birder sees a bird flying in the distance and the leader rules out certain birds and announces it as a such and such. Some birders check their sheets and are satisfied but most birders require that THEY, not the leader identifies the bird.
2-Interface with bird identification software. The birders need a picture for iBird Photo Sluth to identify a bird and binoculars don't take them, so some use their iPhones and hope for enough photo to get an ID.
3-Light weight. Birders hang binoculars around their neck and MAT tolerate a camera/lens on a Black Rapids strap but I am thinking that over 4# would discourage most birders. (I draw this conclusion because I don't see many spotting scopes out there.)
4-Low cost. Birders are not big spenders. Mostly they are cheap geriatrics.
5-Not complicated. Subect ID makes everything easier but otherwise a good AUTO mode.

In my view the Canon R-7/100-400 come closest to meeting birders needs. I feel that my OM-1/100-400 is too expensive for most birders.

So where is Nikon going? No place that makes any sense in my view.

Tom

The more relevant question is "what Chinese and Indian customers are looking for."

The entire growth and pretty soon the majority of MILC sales are those two countries. You are 100% correct that the market is saturated in the Westen Hemisphere and that while some of us will continue to upgrade and replace with latest & greatest, that number cannot sustain the volumes needed to keep the industry alive.

 

[Tom Reynolds]

"Safari travelers as well as general tourists, for whom a smartphone is inadequate."

What I see out there says cell phones are adequate for most vacationers. I took a trip to Antelope Canyon in Arizona a few years ago. It is billed as the most photographed canyon ever.

Almost all cell phones.

I also visited the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. The population of the visitors was significantly not American.

Almost all cell phones.

It appears that general tourists do not think a cell phone is inadequate and cell phone camera have gotten much better since then.

 

[hef19898]

Phones replaced poibt and shoot as well as entry level DSLRs like the D3000 series, that ain't news anymore. Everything above that, pretty much stable or even growing (at least last time I bothered checking). That is, I asume, not the target market for a Z6iii or similar camera...

 

[ImageMKR]

A Z500 (perhaps AKA Z90) would sell like hotcakes with a DX 26 Mpx partially stacked sensor & 20-24 fps. Important enough to me to have two (primary & backup).

 

[EricBowles]

Nikon is really big on re-use. If you can deliver a 24 MP DX partially stacked sensor, you can plug everything into a Z6iii shell and have a really good DX camera. It would have to sell for $2199-2499, but that's not unreasonable. Most of the Z6iii specs and features would still be available. You would have cropped video because of the sensor, but frame rate, cards, AF, controls and everything else could be borrowed from the Z6iii. Even the firmware has a lot of similarities if they stick with a 24 MP image coming off the sensor. This also checks the box as being a high volume camera.

I expect to see a Z9ii next year. I'm not sure about the processor, and whether the current processor is capable of delivering faster and more (everything). We seem to have hit some barriers with the Z9 in terms of pre-release RAW and possibly video, so a faster processor has a place. But it may be early for EXPEED 8.

Right now I don't see a place for a Z7iii. it needs to be $800-1000 more than the Z6iii, and that's the Z8 territory. Maybe you could pull it off at $3599 with a partially stacked sensor, 60 MP, slower speed, lower base ISO, etc. I'm not sure that is compelling enough. I might use it to follow a Z9ii with EXPEED 8 and 60 MP or higher - going for highest resolution rather than fast focus and fast speed. If you have 60 MP, the frame rate will need to be slower - probably 10-12 fps. That takes it out of the action camera group and makes it a specialty camera.

 

[John Navitsky]

Nikon is really big on re-use. If you can deliver a 24 MP DX partially stacked sensor, you can plug everything into a Z6iii shell and have a really good DX camera.

and then trickle it down to the z30

I expect to see a Z9ii next year. I'm not sure about the processor, and whether the current processor is capable of delivering faster and more (everything).

expeed8. probably just an “s” upgrade, but will pick up cfe-b v2 and more horsepower.

i’m pretty sure the existing chipset can’t do cfe-b v2

maybe c2pa w/o a speed penalty, def pre capture raw, and a raw fps bump

if we’re lucky we’ll get the dynamic range trick borrowed from red

 

[Activert]

So if that is true then I should decide whether I really want a super high megapixel camera when I already have the Z9. If not then I am better off going ahead with the Z6iii as my new lightweight option.

The next question is, what is the new Z9 likely to have? What can only be improved with new hardware as opposed to a firmware update.

By the end of this Octobre, it would be three years since the Z9 was announced. I believe by the end of this year we will start to hear rumours about a Z9 something. I think Nikon can still comes up with a new Z9 camera with 30 f/s raw and pré capture raw. I don’t think that we will see that in a firmware.
I believe, we have a better chance to see a Z 7 III with more resolution and some other things that ressemble the Z6. It does make sens for a new Z7 since both the first Z6 and Z 7, if I remember were announced together or few months between.

 

[sheldon]

New version of the Z7? Some say there's no room for it between the Z6iii and the Z8. What about a Z version of the D500. Rumors says it's a a Z90. I think there's a demand for this camera. Does Nikon think it's worth it for them?

 

[Cameron T]

New version of the Z7? Some say there's no room for it between the Z6iii and the Z8. What about a Z version of the D500. Rumors says it's a a Z90. I think there's a demand for this camera. Does Nikon think it's worth it for them?

You'd have to ask them, and they're under NDAs. to date, the answer is no based on camera releases.

 

[Tom Reynolds]

Until the Z6iii I did not think that a new Nikon DX camera makes sense but now I do. I like the weight savings you get from the Z6iii body compared to the Z8 so I think a Z90 in that form factor makes sense.

I think that the "partially stacked" sensor makes sense and @ 20f/s the flicker really doesn't bother me. (With the OM Systems OM-1 m1 I had a choice of 20f/s with flicker or 25f/s without and I chose the former.)

I also think that pre-capture in RAW @ 20f/s, 24mp, with essentially an unlimited buffer is doable since OM Systems does far more than that.

 

[Kuau]

What Nikon needs to work on is the Expeed 8 processor which doesn’t exist yet well at least nothing announced yet. I’m convinced that with a new “faster” processor a Z9ll will then support 30FPS RAW along with RAW recapture and continued AF performance . That would be a worth while upgrade and oh yeah improve in the EVF

 

[JAJohnson]

Until the Z6iii I did not think that a new Nikon DX camera makes sense but now I do. I like the weight savings you get from the Z6iii body compared to the Z8 so I think a Z90 in that form factor makes sense.

I think that the "partially stacked" sensor makes sense and @ 20f/s the flicker really doesn't bother me. (With the OM Systems OM-1 m1 I had a choice of 20f/s with flicker or 25f/s without and I chose the former.)

I also think that pre-capture in RAW @ 20f/s, 24mp, with essentially an unlimited buffer is doable since OM Systems does far more than that.

It would be helpful to understand Nikon’s plans for DX cameras & lenses. Currently their inattention is glaring. I think you’re right, a partially stacked sensor would seem obvious. Expeed 7 processor, AF & shutter speed options similar to the Z6iii would be attractive.

We’ll see.

 

[EricBowles]

Until the Z6iii I did not think that a new Nikon DX camera makes sense but now I do. I like the weight savings you get from the Z6iii body compared to the Z8 so I think a Z90 in that form factor makes sense.

I think that the "partially stacked" sensor makes sense and @ 20f/s the flicker really doesn't bother me. (With the OM Systems OM-1 m1 I had a choice of 20f/s with flicker or 25f/s without and I chose the former.)

I also think that pre-capture in RAW @ 20f/s, 24mp, with essentially an unlimited buffer is doable since OM Systems does far more than that.

Agreed. And more importantly, the difference between a Z6iii and a 24 MP APS-C with similar speed and performance is very small. You need a new sensor, and need to dial back some video specs, but the speed, cards, battery, body size, and other aspects can be the same. A partially stacked sensor - with the related EVF performance and minimal rolling shutter - puts the price point in the $2200-2500 range. This is a camera that can be released later this year and would produce a very high volume of sales if it has similar AF performance to the Z6iii. If you want something different, it's a lot harder to deliver this year.

 

[John Navitsky]

fwiw, i paid $2k for my d500 body, 2.5k isn’t that much difference and i suspect the z6iii will outperform the d500 handily.


i’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, but they’d have to push the price down a bit perhaps.

 

[Tom Reynolds]

The reality is that we are getting older and, as we have seen, the time comes when the camera/lens weight that we enjoy hand-holding shrinks.

I am 83. I could hand-hold my OM-1 with the 150-400 and I could hand-hold a Z-8 with a 600pf but, even though either rig would produce better images, I simply find hand-holding that weight unenjoyable.

The conclusion is that a lighter weight rig is something enthusiast photographers will invest is as they age.

I can tell you that for me every ounce counts. Originally, I carried my rig on a Black Rapids strap attached to the lens foot. Just lately, however, I removed the lens foot and attached the strap directly to the camera. The rig hangs straight down, and the lens weighs 2.4# so I don't believe that the moment is sufficient to damage the camera/lens connection. However, if it does I will simply have the rig repaired because the 7.1 ounce weight savings is important to me.

I understand that many of you, even most of you carry far more weight. Removing the foot dropped the OM-1/100-400 f/6.3 from 4#5oz. to 3#14oz (real numbers based on actually weighting the rig).

Ultimately, I would like Nikon to come out with two DX lenses, a 500pf and a 100-500 F/6.3 zoom. Each DX lens would be a few ounces lighter than their FX equivalent but as I said, "every ounce counts".