What is Nikon up to?

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RichF

RichF

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Lots of speculation (rumors) of release of 800 PF in Feb, new firmware for Z6 / Z 7 II, ... none have come to fruition.

They appear to be pruning their dSLR selections, both bodies and lenses. So what is Nikon planning or are not planning anything? Is Nikon asleep at the switch again, are they planning a mega release, or just working through huge backlog / production backlog for the Z 9 and 400 TC?
 
Rumors are that Canon has 6 new camera patents, so maybe waiting for the competition to act first? Who knows really.
 
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One needs to remember that the patent application stage is well before any detail design. Prototyping, tooling up and manufacture takes several more years.
 
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Seth Miranda just released a video of what he likes and doesn’t like about Z9 and in it he hints that he believes v2 of Z9 firmware might be huge. I find it interesting that Ricci‘s channel has been silent for 3 months after having tons of videos over a couple months. My money would be on 800PF like you mentioned and huge firmware update to Z9 like Seth hinted at. Ricci would probably be doing multiple videos on both. Nikon’s fiscal year ends March 31st so they might just ride Z9 for this month and start announcing new gear starting in April. Maybe a new entry level body (Z3) and lens or two on their road map. I would love for them to bring out 200-600.
 
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Only a few well placed execs at Nikon know for sure. The rest of us can only speculate and offer our wish lists which haver been done here multiple times. I'm sitting here waiting on some kind of announcement on what is next. The next announcement will help me determine if I stay with Nikon or sell my gear and move to a different platform.

Jeff
 
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Darrellhar said:
Seth Miranda just released a video of what he likes and doesn’t like about Z9 and in it he hints that he believes v2 of Z9 firmware might be huge.
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i don’t know if it will be soon, but i absolutely think v2 fw is inevitable for the z9.

I find it interesting that Ricci‘s channel has been silent for 3 months after having tons of videos over a couple months.
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yah, i noticed that as well, but i’m not sure i read much into it. afaik, it’s not his day job and i suspect his day job may have gotten busy all of a sudden 😆
 
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jeffnles1 said:
Only a few well placed execs at Nikon know for sure. The rest of us can only speculate and offer our wish lists which haver been done here multiple times. I'm sitting here waiting on some kind of announcement on what is next. The next announcement will help me determine if I stay with Nikon or sell my gear and move to a different platform.

Jeff
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Very true. But speculating is part of the fun. Out of curiosity, what is your make or break to stick with Nikon?
 
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I thought the same about Ricci. I checked his channel only yesterday and was puzzled by the lack of new content. I'm waiting for the 800mm but not holding my breath for anything anytime soon. I do think there will be improvements to the Z9 in terms of AF and customization in firmware updates. As for the Z6ii and the Z7ii if there were any firmware updates coming they would have been here by now. Nikon have never given any indication that there were updates coming, all there have been is rumours. I think it was the Nikon Rumours site that started it last year by saying there were updates to the AF system coming in September. Never happened.
 
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Nikon has its updating Roadmap of Z Nikkors: and are committed to releasing all these lenses by end of their 2023 fiscal year. The 800 f6.3S PF is the most advanced as it's been seen on TV etc

NR recently noted the registration of 2 new Nikon cameras
Otherwise, as already mentioned there're can only rumours

nikonrumors.com

Random Nikon rumors from around the Web (Nikon Z70, Z4, Z5II, Z6III, Z7III) - Nikon Rumors

As you can see from the title, the Internet is full of rumors for every possible/imaginable Nikon camera. Most of the specs are probably made up, the sources, as usual, are clickbait websites that have never ever reported anything reliable in the past. Here is a recap: Nikon Z4 Nikon Z4...
nikonrumors.com nikonrumors.com
 
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RichF said:
Lots of speculation (rumors) of release of 800 PF in Feb, new firmware for Z6 / Z 7 II, ... none have come to fruition.
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These are rumours only; Nikon has never committed to new firmware on the Z 6/7 II cameras. The rumour I saw for the 800 PF was a May release date, but again that is only Internet rumour. I take these rumours with a pitch of salt.
 
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Ad Astra said:
These are rumours only; Nikon has never committed to new firmware on the Z 6/7 II cameras. The rumour I saw for the 800 PF was a May release date, but again that is only Internet rumour. I take these rumours with a pitch of salt.
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I think Nikon Rumors got the firmware update right, but the cameras wrong. The Z6/Z7 received significant firmware updates close to Nikon Rumors' predicted timeline. I invested in a pair of Z6II and a Z7II w/ the belief that Nikon would finish the firmware and improve AFC performance. A year later, I am now skeptical that Nikon can do much to improve the continuous AF tracking in these cameras. My solution was to take a step back, and buy a D500 to used with my longer telephoto lenses. The availability of the Z9 is super limited and future availability is so unpredictable that I'm stuck in a holding pattern.

As someone who is less interested in resolution and more interested in low light performance, I would love to see a Nikon camera that matches the specs of the Sony A9ii... this would bring the best in Nikon AF to a more affordable 24mp sensor. The A9II continues to be an object of my desire, but my extensive investment in Nikon F & Z glass & cameras have left me frozen in the Nikon ecosystem.
 
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I'm thinking firmware update for Z9 (all hands are on deck testing), release 400/2.8TC S, start taking orders for 800pf, announce 200-600 or 600 but probably 200-600.
 
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RichF said:
Lots of speculation (rumors) of release of 800 PF in Feb, new firmware for Z6 / Z 7 II, ... none have come to fruition.

They appear to be pruning their dSLR selections, both bodies and lenses. So what is Nikon planning or are not planning anything? Is Nikon asleep at the switch again, are they planning a mega release, or just working through huge backlog / production backlog for the Z 9 and 400 TC?
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Who knows? Certainly not me and, I suspect, few others in the world. Until Nikon and the other major manufacturers get the chip supply chain fixed, and get caught up on their delivery of existing products, I suspect breaking news will be slow in coming. In the meanwhile, the Z9 remains rare as hens teeth. It does little good to announce innovative new products, then be unable to deliver. "Vaporware" is the best and fastest way to frustrate and lose customers.
 
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DaveR said:
I thought the same about Ricci. I checked his channel only yesterday and was puzzled by the lack of new content. I'm waiting for the 800mm but not holding my breath for anything anytime soon. I do think there will be improvements to the Z9 in terms of AF and customization in firmware updates. As for the Z6ii and the Z7ii if there were any firmware updates coming they would have been here by now. Nikon have never given any indication that there were updates coming, all there have been is rumours. I think it was the Nikon Rumours site that started it last year by saying there were updates to the AF system coming in September. Never happened.
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I have checked Ricci’s channel periodically always thinking it might be YouTube‘s algorithms not showing me his videos. He had promised a video on the new Angelbird cards months ago that never happened. It’s been a large gap now between his last video.

I‘m curious to why you think a Zii update would have been here by now if it were coming. Why do you think it couldn’t still show up?
 
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and no promised follow up on the 400 f2.8 TC either....
I follow his IG feed and he's been posting some landscape shots. That's all i'm aware of. Nikon's recent strategy is to allow Ricci first access to make a few videos of a pending product. We saw this with the Z9 especially - even to the extent of tongue in cheek dissecting the Teasers. (He had the camera all along!)
Posting these on release day subdues the talking heads (well most). It's likely a shrewd tactic to show up misinformation including blatant lies.
 
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abc123brian said:
I‘m curious to why you think a Zii update would have been here by now if it were coming. Why do you think it couldn’t still show up?
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The last update was in January and there was a minor update to the AF as well as support for the new z 400mm.
There may be minor updates with support for new lenses or other fixes.

If your talking about a major update which improves the AF performance I'm not sure the camera has the hardware to deliver that. I used a Z7ii for about six months and wasn't unhappy with the AF apart from tracking but even then I got some BIF shots I was happy with. The keeper rate was poor though.

I just think if there was an update coming it would have been here by now. The camera was released in Oct 2020 so they have had plenty of time to work on it.
 
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I don’t think it will bode well for Nikon to announce any further products they know they can’t deliver. I waited for nearly 4 years for them to introduce a 200-600 telephoto lens and finally gave up a couple months ago and bought a Sony A1 with a 200-600 lens. I recently sold my Z72 after acquiring the Z9 and I don’t think I will purchase any further Nikon products until they show some appreciation for the customers. It’s pretty sad that the version 2 Z cameras still haven’t received a substantial update. Product supply shortages have nothing to do with updating firmware. In my opinion, they’re not improving these cameras because they know people will cancel their Z9 orders. I am going to keep the Nikon Z lenses I have for now but I’m not sure I’m going to keep the Z9 and it’s mainly because of size and weight. What I hope they would be working on behind the scenes now would be, improving the products that are already in the hands of their loyal customers. That’s probably a pipe dream though lol!
 
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I was reminded last week by some friends with knowledge that Nikon's Z lens roadmap from 2021 promised a number of lenses "by the end of the [fiscal] year." They committed to nothing, but strongly suggested I look at the roadmap. Based on that, I'd expect to see an announcement about the 800 PF, 200-600, and more by the end of this month. These long lenses need high performance camera bodies like the Z9 and similar cameras with features for fast action. That actually fits well for this point in rollout where NPS members have been covered and more cameras will be delivered to enthusiasts.

Historically production capacity of flagship cameras has never been over 50,000+ units a year. That fits the Z9 as well. Yes - it's a huge seller in relative terms and is backordered, but it's very expensive to allocate additional capacity on a short term basis, so I would expect it to be only slightly increased from original plans and have little impact on other models.

Enthusiast cameras have typically been announced in June or July for fall delivery. The Z6ii was shipped in Fall 2020 and the Z7ii in December 2020, so we are due for another camera later this year.

My guess is Nikon sees the Z9 technologies - dual readout sensor and shutterless design - to be a cornerstone of future cameras at the enthusiast and pro level. The EXPEED 7 processor is also likely in future cameras. From a marketing standpoint, with those features the implication is the cameras will be very close to the Z9 even if there are some compromises in frame rate and other aspects. So I see the next cameras - Z6iii, Z7iii, Z90, and Z8 if they happen - to all use that technology and differentiation with competitors. The implication being advanced cameras don't have shutters - and shutters are old tech. While some of these technologies may be expensive, they would get economies of scale across the product lines by applying them to multiple cameras.

While I know there is frustration with the Z9 deliveries, we have to keep in mind that Nikon produces 700,000+ cameras per year that are not flagship models. Nothing has happened to make that capacity go away even though there are some supply chain issues. Nikon's estimates are supply chain impacts are 20,000 units per year - meaningful but only 3% of production. If there are supply chain issues, to the extent possible the priority is going to be higher end enthusiast and professional models.
 
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RichF said:
Very true. But speculating is part of the fun. Out of curiosity, what is your make or break to stick with Nikon?
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indeed speculating is part of the fun. Right now I don't have a hard set "go / no-go" point. As long as my D500 is holding up and meeting my needs I can wait it out for quite a while. Although the D500 is starting to get a bit long in the tooth as compared to some of the modern marvels coming out it is still more than adequate to generate both pro-level photos and just about any still photo I want. It lacks horribly in video and I have been shooting more video lately using a Sony RX10-iv.

I can say that a Z9, R3 or A1 are not in my future. I simply cannot afford it on a retiree's income. Additionally, photography is a hobby not how I earn a living. I sell and/or gift a few images a year but nothing that can come close to a break even point.

I guess my break point with Nikon is if the next updates to the Z7 / Z6 line do not include better autofocus capabilities then I would make a jump to another brand which would yet to be determined. Some of the bells and whistles of the Z9 are not important to me but may be for others. For example, 10-15fps is plenty for me, I con't need 30 or 120fps. A built in grip isn't important to me. I'd be satisfied buying an add-on grip if I chose to use one (like I have done with the D500 and it's after-market grip. I can count on one hand the times I've used it). I would be OK with 2 SD cards but a CFe and SD is also OK or 2 CFe cards would be OK. I typically shoot RAW to card slot 1 and JPG Fine to card slot 2. I do want decent video but do not need a video-centric camera.

I guess the break point for me would be
1) if my D500 were to break tomorrow I don't think I would go to a Z7ii but start looking into other systems like Sony (A7iv looks interesting) or Canon with their R5.
2) Nikon either does not come out with a new mid-tier product in the next 12-18 months or the mid-tier they announce just doesn't meet what is available for similar price with competitors.
3) If Nikon fails to deliver a 200-600 that is at least on par with the Sony 200-600 or the Canon 100-500 then it would be a deal breaker. Again, I cannot afford a 400 F2.8 or a 600 F4. Additionally for my shooting I prefer zooms. One cannot always "zoom with feet" especially in parks and other natural preserve areas where one cannot go off trail. Also, closer focusing on things like butterflies and dragonflies is nice with a zoom.

Guess it is fair to say I don't have a hard and fast "no go" but more of a general feel of the direction and I think whatever Nikon announces (or does not announce) this year will tell the tale.
 
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