What is Nikon up to?

[BrianSmall]

I'd argue that your statement is typical of a Sony shooter who has found it useful to validate their purchase decision while denigrating Nikon shooters.
To be clear, Nikon has been slow to make a serious shift into the mirrorless system. In 2015 my local professional camera store and rental house claimed,... "Don't by that mirrorless crap, it's a fad that will soon fade." Clearly, their perception was as wrong as Nikon's.
In the time that Sony was improving their problematic AF system and bodies that suffered from vibration issues (A7i/A7iR/A7iS), Nikon was releasing the likes of the 180-400 & 120-300, to support the best in class DSLRs (D500, D850, D5)... thus, they were hedging their bets that mirrorless would never surpass DSLRs.
When Nikon finally decided to produce mirrorless cameras, their entries were more refined than Sony's original stuff, and their lens... while limited... were best in class for less money. As Nikon continues to build out their professional system, they continue to produce great cameras and lenses for less. Each new Nikon lens appears to be sharper than the competition, and sold at a competitive price. Furthermore, the current assortment of mirrorless bodies are more than capable of capturing everything from studio to sports... all for less.
So,... was Nikon late to the game? Yes!
Has Nikon been slow to update the Z6ii/Z7ii firmware? Yes!
Will Nikon continue to improve their system, cameras, and lenses... absolutely!
As has been revealed thus far, each iteration of camera, lens, and firmware will continue to add value to the gear we shoot.
Just a few thoughts from a "typical" Nikon shooter.
regards,
bruce

Not sure how my statement is "denigrating Nikon shooters" or "trolling". I'm simply stating the fact that Nikon is very slow to move, slow to release new products, slow to produce enough product to satisfy demand and slow to get those products into their customers hands. It is "typical" of Nikon to treat their customers this way and I frankly got tired of it. Man you guys sure are sensitive..................not really sure why you feel the need to defend this kind of (for lack of a better word) "behavior" from Nikon.

 

[simonsi]

I don’t think it will bode well for Nikon to announce any further products they know they can’t deliver. I waited for nearly 4 years for them to introduce a 200-600 telephoto lens and finally gave up a couple months ago and bought a Sony A1 with a 200-600 lens. I recently sold my Z72 after acquiring the Z9 and I don’t think I will purchase any further Nikon products until they show some appreciation for the customers. It’s pretty sad that the version 2 Z cameras still haven’t received a substantial update. Product supply shortages have nothing to do with updating firmware. In my opinion, they’re not improving these cameras because they know people will cancel their Z9 orders. I am going to keep the Nikon Z lenses I have for now but I’m not sure I’m going to keep the Z9 and it’s mainly because of size and weight. What I hope they would be working on behind the scenes now would be, improving the products that are already in the hands of their loyal customers. That’s probably a pipe dream though lol!

I see firmware updates as a failing, not a benefit. Its in the manufacturers interest to put out a specific model as good as it can be and provide more function as part of a sub-model change - so they get revenue for the additional function. Substantial updates soon after release are IMHO indicative that the camera was rushed out before the firmware was fully ready. Once mirrorless design/production settles I think you will see a return to the DSLR firmware update content and timing, ie occasional and predominantly fixes for issues only.

 

[sh1209]

I see firmware updates as a failing, not a benefit. Its in the manufacturers interest to put out a specific model as good as it can be and provide more function as part of a sub-model change - so they get revenue for the additional function. Substantial updates soon after release are IMHO indicative that the camera was rushed out before the firmware was fully ready. Once mirrorless design/production settles I think you will see a return to the DSLR firmware update content and timing, ie occasional and predominantly fixes for issues only.

I agree and realize we were promised nothing but this still makes me livid considering I could have just kept the original z7&7 and still been in the same place as I am with the version 2 bodies. Also would have saved a chunk of change by doing so.

 

[sh1209]

Not sure how my statement is "denigrating Nikon shooters" or "trolling". I'm simply stating the fact that Nikon is very slow to move, slow to release new products, slow to produce enough product to satisfy demand and slow to get those products into their customers hands. It is "typical" of Nikon to treat their customers this way and I frankly got tired of it. Man you guys sure are sensitive..................not really sure why you feel the need to defend this kind of (for lack of a better word) "behavior" from Nikon.

Well said!

 

[Whiskeyman]

Ricci also tends to disappear when he is working with new gear that can't be discussed. My guess is him being quiet means something is brewing.

I hope that is the issue, and that it isn't illness.

What a lot of people who don't work in the engineering and development fields don't understand is that not just anyone can design a new product that is cutting edge. There are a lot of places that are hurting for qualified and able personnel to work. Many times a new product is dependent on two or three very experienced people to lead development, and sometimes it is even one person. Growing those people into development team leads can take a decade or more, often over two. Over my career in engineering, I've watched as fewer engineering program graduates enter hardware fields, opting instead for software development, where the pay has been better. As a result, many companies have been working short-staffed. That has worked for a while, but over the past 5-10 years, many retirements have left the field sparse of employees, and the result is a lot of the employees are less experienced, and with the "great resignation" over the past two years, the issue is even worse than those of us in the field expected it to be. The results of lack of trained personnel are visible every where, and my observations lead me to believe the problems are going to get worse before they get better, if they do get better within my lifetime.

 

[EricBowles]

Not sure how my statement is "denigrating Nikon shooters" or "trolling". I'm simply stating the fact that Nikon is very slow to move, slow to release new products, slow to produce enough product to satisfy demand and slow to get those products into their customers hands. It is "typical" of Nikon to treat their customers this way and I frankly got tired of it. Man you guys sure are sensitive..................not really sure why you feel the need to defend this kind of (for lack of a better word) "behavior" from Nikon.

Your opinions are certainly valid and are your opinions. On the other hand, statements of fact that are actually opinions and without any factual support are where I would disagree.

I'm not sure I would agree with slow to move and slow to release new products when they have a release schedule and a lens roadmap and are delivering as committed. My take is you simply disagree with their priorities - but you don't have the information forming the basis for their plan or any information about the specifics of future releases. The Roadmap is published and updated regularly covering the lenses. The camera bodies are not communicated in advance, but are aligned with supporting lenses.

While you mention being slow to produce enough product to meet demand, it's actually because of high demand that there is an issue. The Nikon cameras and lenses do have backlogs as production is limited, but the reason for the backlog is largely because of high quality products and incredibly high demand. I'm hearing the Z9 pre-order were the highest ever for any Nikon camera, and subsequent orders after the Z9 started shipping are higher than the pre-orders. The D3 was the previous high for a flagship body over its lifetime with a little over 100,000 units. The Z9 is ahead of that pace in a market that has declined by more than 50%. I've heard from one dealer that Z9 orders are four times the orders for competitor flagship products.

I'd also look at the financial performance of Nikon's camera business as a further indicator. As you probably know, Nikon is a medium sized company with a large camera business. They provide a great deal of disclosure about the camera business including units sold, target market segments, sales and profit forecasts, etc. They have increased their revenue and profit forecasts for five consecutive quarters coming out of Covid. They are now selling 1.75 lenses per ILC camera - up from 1.4 just a few years ago. The average price per unit is also up sharply as they exit low margin consumer segments. As a result the stock price is up 80% and is expected to continue to increase. That's a pretty good sign the company is performing well.

As I mentioned at the beginning - everyone is entitled to their opinion - but facts are different from opinion.

The reality is any flagship camera is a very good product. But that does not mean people are suddenly unable to produce a good photo with a 3-5 year old camera. Flagship cameras collectively represent about 2.5% of total camera sales. In the case of Nikon, the mix is a little different with an emphasis on enthusiasts and professionals. Flagship camera sales for Nikon represent a higher percentage with approximately 50,000 units out of 750,000 units sold or about 6.7%.

I can probably make some similar arguments about Canon and Canon's strategy. It's not unlike Nikon with a thoughtful approach to releasing lenses and cameras. No - all the products everyone wants have not been released. But the cameras and lenses are excellent products and there are plans in place for future models and filling any gaps. Likewise if you are looking for products like the R3, cameras are in short supply because of high demand. Canon's financials are similarly available with plenty of public information about product unit sales, revenues, and profitability. Their forecasts are public for all units including the camera division.

 

[peter1964a]

There is one thing we should stop stressing over. Not what we haven’t got but let’s get out and use what we have, which, without many exceptions is far better equipment than many of us ever expected to own when we started our photographic journey.

 

[Whiskeyman]

I see firmware updates as a failing, not a benefit. Its in the manufacturers interest to put out a specific model as good as it can be and provide more function as part of a sub-model change - so they get revenue for the additional function. Substantial updates soon after release are IMHO indicative that the camera was rushed out before the firmware was fully ready. Once mirrorless design/production settles I think you will see a return to the DSLR firmware update content and timing, ie occasional and predominantly fixes for issues only.

They are absolutely not a failing. If you waited until a product was perfect, we'd still be waiting for the very first digital camera, among many other things. If firmware updates were not an option, you'd have to buy a new camera instead of updating the firmware on the one you already own. So for me, I'll count them as a benefit.

 

[Calson]

Nikon is not a big company and they have effectively doubled the number of cameras and lenses they produce with the introduction of mirrorless. Each lens needs production planning and materials sourced and production lines created and employees trained and quality control covered. This takes time to accomplish.

I think that Nikon has done a remarkable job of developing its Z cameras and their new mirrorless lenses while bring out a 500mm PF and soon a 800mm PF that is not going to be available from Sony or Canon. The Z9 is the best mirrorless camera one can buy and it is $1500 less than the Sony offering. If anything one should ask why Sony is not doing more but then they are famous for letting competitors eat their lunch.

 

[BrianSmall]

Your opinions are certainly valid and are your opinions. On the other hand, statements of fact that are actually opinions and without any factual support are where I would disagree.

I'm not sure I would agree with slow to move and slow to release new products when they have a release schedule and a lens roadmap and are delivering as committed. My take is you simply disagree with their priorities - but you don't have the information forming the basis for their plan or any information about the specifics of future releases. The Roadmap is published and updated regularly covering the lenses. The camera bodies are not communicated in advance, but are aligned with supporting lenses.

While you mention being slow to produce enough product to meet demand, it's actually because of high demand that there is an issue. The Nikon cameras and lenses do have backlogs as production is limited, but the reason for the backlog is largely because of high quality products and incredibly high demand. I'm hearing the Z9 pre-order were the highest ever for any Nikon camera, and subsequent orders after the Z9 started shipping are higher than the pre-orders. The D3 was the previous high for a flagship body over its lifetime with a little over 100,000 units. The Z9 is ahead of that pace in a market that has declined by more than 50%. I've heard from one dealer that Z9 orders are four times the orders for competitor flagship products.

I'd also look at the financial performance of Nikon's camera business as a further indicator. As you probably know, Nikon is a medium sized company with a large camera business. They provide a great deal of disclosure about the camera business including units sold, target market segments, sales and profit forecasts, etc. They have increased their revenue and profit forecasts for five consecutive quarters coming out of Covid. They are now selling 1.75 lenses per ILC camera - up from 1.4 just a few years ago. The average price per unit is also up sharply as they exit low margin consumer segments. As a result the stock price is up 80% and is expected to continue to increase. That's a pretty good sign the company is performing well.

As I mentioned at the beginning - everyone is entitled to their opinion - but facts are different from opinion.

The reality is any flagship camera is a very good product. But that does not mean people are suddenly unable to produce a good photo with a 3-5 year old camera. Flagship cameras collectively represent about 2.5% of total camera sales. In the case of Nikon, the mix is a little different with an emphasis on enthusiasts and professionals. Flagship camera sales for Nikon represent a higher percentage with approximately 50,000 units out of 750,000 units sold or about 6.7%.

I can probably make some similar arguments about Canon and Canon's strategy. It's not unlike Nikon with a thoughtful approach to releasing lenses and cameras. No - all the products everyone wants have not been released. But the cameras and lenses are excellent products and there are plans in place for future models and filling any gaps. Likewise if you are looking for products like the R3, cameras are in short supply because of high demand. Canon's financials are similarly available with plenty of public information about product unit sales, revenues, and profitability. Their forecasts are public for all units including the camera division.

Your response is reasonable and well thought out. For ME, the fact that Nikon is a step or two behind the competition and IMHO doesn't do a good job of producing enough product to keep up with demand was enough to make me switch systems away from them. I'm not getting any younger and I'm too impatient to wait around for them to try and catch up. In comparison to both Sony and Canon, they are a much smaller company and perhaps they don't have the R & D of their competition putting them at a competitive disadvantage for the foreseeable future. I'm not saying anything bad about their gear..................I shot Nikon for close to 20 years, switched to Canon for about 10 years, went back to Nikon for about 5 years and am now shooting Sony the past year. Anyway, I don't wish to continue in this thread so this will be my last post on it. Thanks for reading..............

 

[fcotterill]

Prompted by a fellow Nikonian for advice on fast prime lenses, I checked back through interviews with Nikon engineers, which throw some interesting light on their aims and inputs in designing recent lenses. These admittedly irregular and fragmented sources reveal a clear trend in the corporate commitment to refine and advance optical design. The evidence is plain to see today in the Z Nikkors. The first inklings of a shift to a concerted design strategy, I've read, are in the glossy anniversary volume, Eyes of Nikkor (2014) in which a few engineers described the principles that had guided them in the pursuit of optical quality and lens of unique character.

We began to see the first examples with the 35 f1.4G and 58 f1.4G, preceding the 105 f1.4E (Nikon's Centenary F-Nikkor for 2017). The first public statements related to a quest to refine 3D Rendering in fast primes, and the primary advocate has been Haruo Sato (who also runs the Nikkor 1001 Historical Series) and latterly Hiroyuki Ishigami as well: notably in their public feedback on designing the 105 f1.4E, in which they describe how it advanced on what was achieved in the 58 f1.4G (released in 2013 - discussed here).

With respect to the Z System, launched in 2018, the official information from Nikon - interviewees and marketing copy - repeats the mantra along the lines of "the focus surface is sharp and the bokeh changes gently..... natural, three-dimensional, and capable of depiction with a sense of depth." in the quest to design high quality optics. This quality is not just hyperbole because it's confirmed by many photographers and independent reviewers: as the release of one Z Nikkor has followed yet another. Assuming one has the budget, these Z Nikkors are worth saving for, and waiting for...

Circling back to what was admitted by Sato specifically in 2017, about a company-wide organization called the "Meeting Ball Analysis Project Team" [see first 2 answers in this interview] ... Inherently cross-disciplinary, the corporate investments and broad focus of this internal review reveals Nikon had already began to pull out all the stops a decade ago to reprioritize its R&D focus across its Optical / Imaging divisions. Consider further that Nikon is unique in producing its own Optical glass in its Hikari factory [video]: undergirding all its divisions.

Glass for geeks: An in-depth tour of Nikon’s Hikari Glass factory

I've been on a lot of factory tours with various camera and lens manufacturers before, but had never had a chance to see how the optical glass was made that goes into the lenses we use every day. So I was really happy to receive…

www.imaging-resource.com

Thus, Nikon thought all this through very carefully - starting before 2015. Perhaps the restructuring began about the time of designing the 58 f1.4G: and not just restricted to Haruo Sato and other engineers; this must have entailed a cross-disciplinary review across the entire range Nikon's optical R&D departments. And no coincidence such a broad strategy meeting in pursuit of high quality optics coincided with Nikon's Strategic Planning circa 2015 (when publicly announced).

Given Nikon's massive change in its priorities going forward, this strategic planning likely has something to do with the qualities of recent Nikkor optics; not surprising because beginning around about 2015 Nikon must have invested major R&D in its Z System - an investment continuing in the new cameras and Nikkors rolled out since 2017.

Nikon's post-2015 Restructuring not only has resulted in high quality products but also a major restructuring of factory production, which centred much more on automated procedures using robotics for higher QC of the products. We also see the evidence in the increased profile Nikon shows in retailing robotic solutions and also a stacked sensor, announced early 2020 for industrial applications (months before the Z9).

Recent interviews eg on Z Day 23 August 2018 confirm Ishigami has maintained a central role in the design and expansion of the Z System https://www.imaging-resource.com/ne...-help-lens-design-and-af-nikon-tech-interview

大口径マウントの「NIKKOR Z」開発秘話（前編）　なぜ各社で径が違う？　デザインや沈胴機構にも新たな挑戦

大口径マウントの「NIKKOR Z」開発秘話（前編）

dc.watch.impress.co.jp

In summary, the trends and releases of new products reveal an interesting narrative of what Nikon has been up to over the past decade. This future was made all the more plain in mid-2018. Time and again, the company continues to emphasize the strategic advantages of the new Z Mount eg this video. This distinction alone is one very sound reason to invest in Nikon.

Glass for geeks: An in-depth tour of Nikon’s Hikari Glass factory

I've been on a lot of factory tours with various camera and lens manufacturers before, but had never had a chance to see how the optical glass was made that goes into the lenses we use every day. So I was really happy to receive…

www.imaging-resource.com

As for the rate of releases, let's recall Feb 2020, when a senior executive, Keiji Oishi, stated, it's committed to regular firmware updates (a big change for Nikon!) to keep products current, and moreover that, "Nikon is fully committed to the future of the Z system, and we will have 23 lenses by the end of 2021.". In fact, the Roadmap of 14 December 2021 maps out 36 lenses in total. In the next 2 posts, it's interesting to see the history charted across these roadmaps since 2018, which shows up other companies and not only those producing optics.
In closing, here is 1 more interview in March 2021, effectively announcing what is now the Z9.

Interview: Nikon - "A flagship Nikon Z series mirrorless camera can be expected within the year"

In the latest in our series of socially distanced interviews, we spoke to Keiji Oishi of Nikon. In an exclusive announcement to DPReview, he revealed that Nikon is working on a professional Z-mount camera. Click through to read more.

www.dpreview.com

It is very unlikely Nikon will drop this momentum in the pace and quality of new products. And edit to this post, note the April Investors Report :

Z Roadmap 20Sept 2022, Nikon brochures

I totally agree. My bet is that the 200-600 has been ready to go for a year - maybe more. It probably has very good performance and would limit sales of the more expensive telephotos Nikon has introduced. You can only hope that Nikon has a warehouse full of them ready to go when announced. The...

bcgforums.com

Imaging Market Forecasts into 2023 (and parts shortages) - Nikon

Subsequent to Nikon's Investor Relations Day 26th May, Nikon released its 2022/23 Q1 results Slide 33 compares sales of ILCs and Lenses, with forecast https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2022/22_all_e.pdf In the Q&A -...

bcgforums.com

 

[fcotterill]

Timeline of Z Nikkor Roadmaps from August 2018 into 2021...

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[fcotterill]

late 2021 until January 2023 - development window projected into 2023
.... Scroll down to the most recent Roadmap(s)

Z Roadmap 20Sept 2022, Nikon brochures

Nikon has a habit of changing links across those of its websites servers that host brochures and technical data. Brochures etc have a tendency to vanish. This is besides the new releases / revised editions Timeline of Previous editions of Roadmaps in this thread [ Update - new Z Roadmap...

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5 January 2023

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[fcotterill]

Well he's back

Ricci also tends to disappear when he is working with new gear that can't be discussed. My guess is him being quiet means something is brewing.

 

[Tiktok67]

The major limitation, imo, which is why I have not purchased an MC 105 is the lack of tripod collar. I find macro lenses with tripod collars much easier to use. How is the 105 working for you? Do you have experience with collared macro lenses to compare the 105 to?

I have not had any issues working with the Z MC 105. I don’t know the weight difference between it and the most recent F mount 105, but it feels much lighter and more well balanced. I’ve never used a collared macro lens to compare this with, but I think the MC 105 is light enough to mount the camera body on a tripod (with lens attached of course) without much issue.

 

[arbitrage]

Well he's back

But where is his 400S review? He posted about working on this on social media and then went silent for a long time.

 

[fcotterill]

No idea whatsoever. He seems to be busy with courses etc

 

[John Navitsky]

i _think_ anything that comes out under one of the nikon channels is him in his official capacity as a nikon employee where the "Ricci Talks" channel seems more like his personal thing. but that's just a guess

 

[EricBowles]

But where is his 400S review? He posted about working on this on social media and then went silent for a long time.

Last time he was absent for a while he came back with a release video for the Z9 and the 100-400 (I think). He had the Z9 for several weeks but his content was embargoed until after the official release. He immediately published the "this is what I've been working on" video.

 

[arbitrage]

Last time he was absent for a while he came back with a release video for the Z9 and the 100-400 (I think). He had the Z9 for several weeks but his content was embargoed until after the official release. He immediately published the "this is what I've been working on" video.

Yeah maybe he'll come back on April 4th with a double whammy 400S and 800PF video!!