What is Nikon up to?

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indeed speculating is part of the fun. Right now I don't have a hard set "go / no-go" point. As long as my D500 is holding up and meeting my needs I can wait it out for quite a while. Although the D500 is starting to get a bit long in the tooth as compared to some of the modern marvels coming out it is still more than adequate to generate both pro-level photos and just about any still photo I want. It lacks horribly in video and I have been shooting more video lately using a Sony RX10-iv.

I can say that a Z9, R3 or A1 are not in my future. I simply cannot afford it on a retiree's income. Additionally, photography is a hobby not how I earn a living. I sell and/or gift a few images a year but nothing that can come close to a break even point.

I guess my break point with Nikon is if the next updates to the Z7 / Z6 line do not include better autofocus capabilities then I would make a jump to another brand which would yet to be determined. Some of the bells and whistles of the Z9 are not important to me but may be for others. For example, 10-15fps is plenty for me, I con't need 30 or 120fps. A built in grip isn't important to me. I'd be satisfied buying an add-on grip if I chose to use one (like I have done with the D500 and it's after-market grip. I can count on one hand the times I've used it). I would be OK with 2 SD cards but a CFe and SD is also OK or 2 CFe cards would be OK. I typically shoot RAW to card slot 1 and JPG Fine to card slot 2. I do want decent video but do not need a video-centric camera.

I guess the break point for me would be
1) if my D500 were to break tomorrow I don't think I would go to a Z7ii but start looking into other systems like Sony (A7iv looks interesting) or Canon with their R5.
2) Nikon either does not come out with a new mid-tier product in the next 12-18 months or the mid-tier they announce just doesn't meet what is available for similar price with competitors.
3) If Nikon fails to deliver a 200-600 that is at least on par with the Sony 200-600 or the Canon 100-500 then it would be a deal breaker. Again, I cannot afford a 400 F2.8 or a 600 F4. Additionally for my shooting I prefer zooms. One cannot always "zoom with feet" especially in parks and other natural preserve areas where one cannot go off trail. Also, closer focusing on things like butterflies and dragonflies is nice with a zoom.

Guess it is fair to say I don't have a hard and fast "no go" but more of a general feel of the direction and I think whatever Nikon announces (or does not announce) this year will tell the tale.
I share your sentiments. I can tell you for sure if they announce another version of the Z6 and Z7 without improving the current generation two bodies, that will be the point I leave Nikon entirely. I have never seen a company in my life make such poor judgment calls on the products they release. Some people like myself will never buy a 400 F2.8 or 600mm prime for various reasons and mine is due to injuries making it unable to support the weight. The 200-600 should have been released with the original Z6&7. I have been beyond loyal to Nikon for almost 18 years now and I feel they have no appreciation for loyal customers. That’s just my opinion and I understand everyone has one but that’s the way I feel.
 
Who knows? Certainly not me and, I suspect, few others in the world. Until Nikon and the other major manufacturers get the chip supply chain fixed, and get caught up on their delivery of existing products, I suspect breaking news will be slow in coming. In the meanwhile, the Z9 remains rare as hens teeth. It does little good to announce innovative new products, then be unable to deliver. "Vaporware" is the best and fastest way to frustrate and lose customers.
Perfect description.
Nikon is still third in a three horse race but they are now, with the Z9, in the race.
I am enjoying my Z9, it does more than I am capable of fully utilizing even with my old F Mount lenses. I even bought a 2.0TCIII which the Z9 makes viable with some lenses I use.
Clearly the Z9 is better than SONY's A1 in some areas, not as good as the A1 in some areas. The Z9 is better than Canon's offering in some areas, not as good in some areas. That will always be the case.
When it comes to wildlife photography Nikon is behind in lenses and working to catch up but Nikon has limited financial resources which hinders catching up. Catching up is also hindered by supply chain issues. Nikon has also chosen to introduce $14,000 lenses instead of a lens I want, for example a lens that can compete with SONY's 200-600. In this area I am guessing SIGMA and maybe TAMRON will offer solutions before Nikon - at least I hope so.
While I am somewhat frustrated I am not expecting much more from Nikon that I can both buy and also hold in my hands during the next year - maybe longer.
The Z9 is providing many more "keepers" and letting me do things I could not do previously.
 
i don’t know if it will be soon, but i absolutely think v2 fw is inevitable for the z9.



yah, i noticed that as well, but i’m not sure i read much into it. afaik, it’s not his day job and i suspect his day job may have gotten busy all of a sudden 😆
Obviously none of us have any insider information. Just trying to read the tea leaves. I know one of the videos I heard with Seth, Ricci and Matt from AU they alluded to big things coming but couldn't really say anything because of NDA. When Seth mentioned it again it triggered that thought. Ricci piece is interesting because he was making a ton of content then just stopped. Z9 is still hot camera and I wouldn't put it past them to capitalize on that and release new firmware to ride that bus a lot longer.
 
and no promised follow up on the 400 f2.8 TC either....
I follow his IG feed and he's been posting some landscape shots. That's all i'm aware of. Nikon's recent strategy is to allow Ricci first access to make a few videos of a pending product. We saw this with the Z9 especially - even to the extent of tongue in cheek dissecting the Teasers. (He had the camera all along!)
Posting these on release day subdues the talking heads (well most). It's likely a shrewd tactic to show up misinformation including blatant lies.
I think you nailed it. Good PR on Nikon's part as you see a lot of click bait channels on you tube especially about Z9.
 
The last update was in January and there was a minor update to the AF as well as support for the new z 400mm.
There may be minor updates with support for new lenses or other fixes.

If your talking about a major update which improves the AF performance I'm not sure the camera has the hardware to deliver that. I used a Z7ii for about six months and wasn't unhappy with the AF apart from tracking but even then I got some BIF shots I was happy with. The keeper rate was poor though.

I just think if there was an update coming it would have been here by now. The camera was released in Oct 2020 so they have had plenty of time to work on it.
I don’t think we will have an update that will turn them into the cameras everyone wants, but expect to see a decent change that will make the camera do what I want it to. Part of that comes from my expectations being different than those who want it to become an R5 competitor. I think the improvements we will see are going to be in two areas. First being improved AF algorithm. The current algorithm has some very obvious issues and needs to be tweaked. This doesn’t require better hardware, though better hardware makes it perform better. There are some areas of the Z9 algorithm that need work too. My guess is this is being worked on and we will see them released simultaneously or very close as much of this can be shared. Secondly, I think we will see a small UI change to make some features easier to access or use. I agree they have had a lot of time to work on them in theory, but I think they needed to stretch their resources to the Z9. I also have doubts we will see the Ziii cameras this year so it would benefit Nikon to make the Zii cameras more desirable.
 
It is well worth considering the overall coverage of Nikon-Fit lenses for wildlife - specifically Telephotos.

For almost all other genres, there is also a full house of U-Wides, fast primes, tilt-shifts, a zoom Fisheye etc etc. Ironically, the entire Greater Nikon Ecosystem is missing a current G - better E - telephoto macro, with upgraded AF and aperture etc. Yes the MIA 200 f4 Micro-Nikkor - either Gold-ring or S Line.

This graphic attempts to cover the telephoto options across the F-mount and G-mount Nikkors. It does not include the 3rd party options
* the 400 PF could be wider ie f4 when finally released

Telephotos Options Nikkors 14Dec2021.jpg
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Eric Bowles, professional nature photographer who posted in this thread earlier said that he was aware of Nikon being in the process of testing new firmware for the Z6II/7II bodies. I'll take him at his word since he's a credible source in my view. So I wait..........
 
Eric Bowles, professional nature photographer who posted in this thread earlier said that he was aware of Nikon being in the process of testing new firmware for the Z6II/7II bodies. I'll take him at his word since he's a credible source in my view. So I wait..........
Actually I don't think I said that - but I'm getting old. It must have been someone else.

The last time I asked and got an answer about firmware updates for the Z6ii/Z7ii was in August, and my contacts were unaware of any firmware in progress but did know about the upcoming Z9. I fully expect to see a 2.0 firmware update for the Z6ii/Z7ii cameras. Previous firmware updates have slowly improved the AF of these cameras. My expectation all along has been that the dual Expeed 6 sensors would bring more advances than we have seen so far. But compared to Z9 performance, the hardware in the Z6ii/Z7ii does not have enough processing power to deliver AF and speed near the Z9 level.

At this point we've seen a number of cameras with updated firmware but not the Z6ii/Z7ii - even for some basic things. I'm hopeful we'll see an announcement soon - maybe around the time of the lens announcements.
 
random thought. there has been a lot of comments about a 2.0 fw for the z6ii/z7ii cannibalizing z9 sales. while i don’t particularly share that perspective, one way nikon might mitigate that is to release the/a z9 fw update at the same time. ie, both cameras improve.

that said, i think we’d be smart to keep our expectations in check for what a z6ii fw 2.0 might deliver. while the dual processor configuration MAY have a lot of untapped potential, there is much we don’t know about the internal architecture of the camera and we should remember that a lot of our expectations hang on assumptions on our part

and note, i own a z6ii that i’m not that fond of, so while i try to temper my expectations, i certainly HOPE for a big boost
 
random thought. there has been a lot of comments about a 2.0 fw for the z6ii/z7ii cannibalizing z9 sales. while i don’t particularly share that perspective, one way nikon might mitigate that is to release the/a z9 fw update at the same time. ie, both cameras improve.

that said, i think we’d be smart to keep our expectations in check for what a z6ii fw 2.0 might deliver. while the dual processor configuration MAY have a lot of untapped potential, there is much we don’t know about the internal architecture of the camera and we should remember that a lot of our expectations hang on assumptions on our part

and note, i own a z6ii that i’m not that fond of, so while i try to temper my expectations, i certainly HOPE for a big boost

That's a good point, John. Nikon has previously indicated a firmware update for the Z9 is planned for March.

I don't think it's possible to make enough difference in the Z6ii/Z7ii that they are a threat to Z9 sales. The hardware creates a big part of the Z9 advantages.

I don't think people here have seen much change in earlier firmware updates for the Z6ii/Z7ii, but for those that do a lot of event and portrait work, AF has advanced pretty nicely - especially with Face/Eye Detection.
 
Outside of this forum I don’t see or hear much about the high end cameras. At a nearby wetlands, which gets lots of foot traffic, mine was the only Nikon rig. A D850 with a 500 pf.

I didn’t think to actually count the cameras but a swag would be Cannon by a large majority, Olympus and a bunch of pocket type cameras. No Nikon, no Sony and no higher end Cannon.

There have been days when mine was the only camera.
 
Outside of this forum I don’t see or hear much about the high end cameras. At a nearby wetlands, which gets lots of foot traffic, mine was the only Nikon rig. A D850 with a 500 pf.

I didn’t think to actually count the cameras but a swag would be Cannon by a large majority, Olympus and a bunch of pocket type cameras. No Nikon, no Sony and no higher end Cannon.

There have been days when mine was the only camera.
I never paid attention until I had interest in Fujifilm and I was trying to find someone with one to get opinions. Since then, I still pay attention for fun since there is so much gear talk on forums; though not as closely. I feel the need to add I don’t care what someone chooses to shoot with, but observing since forums would lead you to believe something completely different. In the wildlife areas near my house, DSLR seems to dominate with what seems to be more Nikon than Canon. The small park near my house where I go to watch Osprey and Eagles is out of the norm as the Z9 is currently the camera I see the most often with 5 of them counting mine. One of the Z9 users also has an A1 but he is usually using the Z9. I’ve seen an A9 down there and also an Olympus, not sure of the model. This weekend I noticed someone with one of the Canon R models. Technically, the most common camera used is on phones, but I don’t count that 😊.
 
Good point e
I was reminded last week by some friends with knowledge that Nikon's Z lens roadmap from 2021 promised a number of lenses "by the end of the [fiscal] year." They committed to nothing, but strongly suggested I look at the roadmap. Based on that, I'd expect to see an announcement about the 800 PF, 200-600, and more by the end of this month. These long lenses need high performance camera bodies like the Z9 and similar cameras with features for fast action. That actually fits well for this point in rollout where NPS members have been covered and more cameras will be delivered to enthusiasts.

Historically production capacity of flagship cameras has never been over 50,000+ units a year. That fits the Z9 as well. Yes - it's a huge seller in relative terms and is backordered, but it's very expensive to allocate additional capacity on a short term basis, so I would expect it to be only slightly increased from original plans and have little impact on other models.

Enthusiast cameras have typically been announced in June or July for fall delivery. The Z6ii was shipped in Fall 2020 and the Z7ii in December 2020, so we are due for another camera later this year.

My guess is Nikon sees the Z9 technologies - dual readout sensor and shutterless design - to be a cornerstone of future cameras at the enthusiast and pro level. The EXPEED 7 processor is also likely in future cameras. From a marketing standpoint, with those features the implication is the cameras will be very close to the Z9 even if there are some compromises in frame rate and other aspects. So I see the next cameras - Z6iii, Z7iii, Z90, and Z8 if they happen - to all use that technology and differentiation with competitors. The implication being advanced cameras don't have shutters - and shutters are old tech. While some of these technologies may be expensive, they would get economies of scale across the product lines by applying them to multiple cameras.

While I know there is frustration with the Z9 deliveries, we have to keep in mind that Nikon produces 700,000+ cameras per year that are not flagship models. Nothing has happened to make that capacity go away even though there are some supply chain issues. Nikon's estimates are supply chain impacts are 20,000 units per year - meaningful but only 3% of production. If there are supply chain issues, to the extent possible the priority is going to be higher end enthusiast and professional models.
rice comments. If my guess is that Nikon is working on the firmware very hard. When they get the next level out of the firmware, they may use it to tweek the next camera, especially minor improvements in AF hardware. Just a thought
 
I think Nikon Rumors got the firmware update right, but the cameras wrong. The Z6/Z7 received significant firmware updates close to Nikon Rumors' predicted timeline. I invested in a pair of Z6II and a Z7II w/ the belief that Nikon would finish the firmware and improve AFC performance. A year later, I am now skeptical that Nikon can do much to improve the continuous AF tracking in these cameras. My solution was to take a step back, and buy a D500 to used with my longer telephoto lenses. The availability of the Z9 is super limited and future availability is so unpredictable that I'm stuck in a holding pattern.

As someone who is less interested in resolution and more interested in low light performance, I would love to see a Nikon camera that matches the specs of the Sony A9ii... this would bring the best in Nikon AF to a more affordable 24mp sensor. The A9II continues to be an object of my desire, but my extensive investment in Nikon F & Z glass & cameras have left me frozen in the Nikon ecosystem.
Nothing wrong with a D500! It’s still my primary body for birds and faster-moving or distant wildlife. I also shoot landscapes and travel, and that’s where my Z6II excels. I have the added bonus of using the FTZ and my 500PF when I want full frame shots of stationary birds and animals. I know this is primarily a wildlife forum, but I added the z MC 105/2.8 to my lens stable a few weeks ago, and it is an amazing lens. Best macro I have ever used, and excellent for portraits. The Z mount glass is what pushed me to mirrorless.
 
Nothing wrong with a D500! It’s still my primary body for birds and faster-moving or distant wildlife. I also shoot landscapes and travel, and that’s where my Z6II excels. I have the added bonus of using the FTZ and my 500PF when I want full frame shots of stationary birds and animals. I know this is primarily a wildlife forum, but I added the z MC 105/2.8 to my lens stable a few weeks ago, and it is an amazing lens. Best macro I have ever used, and excellent for portraits. The Z mount glass is what pushed me to mirrorless.
The major limitation, imo, which is why I have not purchased an MC 105 is the lack of tripod collar. I find macro lenses with tripod collars much easier to use. How is the 105 working for you? Do you have experience with collared macro lenses to compare the 105 to?
 
Lots of speculation (rumors) of release of 800 PF in Feb, new firmware for Z6 / Z 7 II, ... none have come to fruition.

They appear to be pruning their dSLR selections, both bodies and lenses. So what is Nikon planning or are not planning anything? Is Nikon asleep at the switch again, are they planning a mega release, or just working through huge backlog / production backlog for the Z 9 and 400 TC?
Typical Nikon................just one more reason I bailed from them and switched to Sony..............and couldn't be happier.
 
Typical Nikon................just one more reason I bailed from them and switched to Sony..............and couldn't be happier.
I'd argue that your statement is typical of a Sony shooter who has found it useful to validate their purchase decision while denigrating Nikon shooters.
To be clear, Nikon has been slow to make a serious shift into the mirrorless system. In 2015 my local professional camera store and rental house claimed,... "Don't by that mirrorless crap, it's a fad that will soon fade." Clearly, their perception was as wrong as Nikon's.
In the time that Sony was improving their problematic AF system and bodies that suffered from vibration issues (A7i/A7iR/A7iS), Nikon was releasing the likes of the 180-400 & 120-300, to support the best in class DSLRs (D500, D850, D5)... thus, they were hedging their bets that mirrorless would never surpass DSLRs.
When Nikon finally decided to produce mirrorless cameras, their entries were more refined than Sony's original stuff, and their lens... while limited... were best in class for less money. As Nikon continues to build out their professional system, they continue to produce great cameras and lenses for less. Each new Nikon lens appears to be sharper than the competition, and sold at a competitive price. Furthermore, the current assortment of mirrorless bodies are more than capable of capturing everything from studio to sports... all for less.
So,... was Nikon late to the game? Yes!
Has Nikon been slow to update the Z6ii/Z7ii firmware? Yes!
Will Nikon continue to improve their system, cameras, and lenses... absolutely!
As has been revealed thus far, each iteration of camera, lens, and firmware will continue to add value to the gear we shoot.
Just a few thoughts from a "typical" Nikon shooter.
regards,
bruce
 
I'd argue that your statement is typical of a Sony shooter who has found it useful to validate their purchase decision while denigrating Nikon shooters.
To be clear, Nikon has been slow to make a serious shift into the mirrorless system. In 2015 my local professional camera store and rental house claimed,... "Don't by that mirrorless crap, it's a fad that will soon fade." Clearly, their perception was as wrong as Nikon's.
In the time that Sony was improving their problematic AF system and bodies that suffered from vibration issues (A7i/A7iR/A7iS), Nikon was releasing the likes of the 180-400 & 120-300, to support the best in class DSLRs (D500, D850, D5)... thus, they were hedging their bets that mirrorless would never surpass DSLRs.
When Nikon finally decided to produce mirrorless cameras, their entries were more refined than Sony's original stuff, and their lens... while limited... were best in class for less money. As Nikon continues to build out their professional system, they continue to produce great cameras and lenses for less. Each new Nikon lens appears to be sharper than the competition, and sold at a competitive price. Furthermore, the current assortment of mirrorless bodies are more than capable of capturing everything from studio to sports... all for less.
So,... was Nikon late to the game? Yes!
Has Nikon been slow to update the Z6ii/Z7ii firmware? Yes!
Will Nikon continue to improve their system, cameras, and lenses... absolutely!
As has been revealed thus far, each iteration of camera, lens, and firmware will continue to add value to the gear we shoot.
Just a few thoughts from a "typical" Nikon shooter.
regards,
bruce

Yeah, Sony is still relatively new to the game in many ways, and Nikon was making high end gear when Sony was still releasing experimental bodies like the A7R, and leaning on Zeiss for decent lenses.
But a lot has changed since then, body wise and lens wise. The new GM lenses from the past 1,5 yrs show what the new Sony is about, and so does a body like the A1.
I don't believe products like the 35GM, the 70-200GMII or the A1 need any purchase validation, they are top notch and uncompromised products.

I shot the Nikon D500 with 500PF and really wanted to stay with Nikon. But the Z9+ftz adapter weighing 1,5kg and being the size it is I could not see myself ever enjoying shooting that body. So the factor "new" that is part of Sony, was a blessing for me. I use the A1 with the small Meike grip extender to remedy a floating pinky, and for me it is just perfect at half the weight and size of the Z9 with ftz adapter.
For some, nikon's pro standard heritage is not attractive, Sony can more easily think out of the box, and offer similar flagship performance in half the package, and make it possible to really use óne camera for every shooting scenario in an optimum way.
You could argue that the Z9 is cheaper, especially when adding the battery grip to the Sony A1, but I argue that it is more expensive, because you need to keep a second camera for travel and casual shooting, and go figure what that costs if you want the same high qualiy...

If you like an über sized, über weight camera though, Nikon should absolutely be top of your list, the 500PF is a marvel.
The way Nikon shóuld have done it, is either offer a similar type sensor in an aps-c camera, with their famous double launch, ór make a first body with seperate battery grip amd still the Nikon great ergonomics, à la D850, but with the stacked sensor and new processor.
That way, shooters like me could have stayed with Nikon, I would have simply replaced the D500 with a relatively affordable (compared to Z9) Z500, and kept a separate body for all other shooting.
The way it is now, I was forced to move up in a "pro" like weight/size territory without having any wish to do so.

I do hope that Sony will make a lens inbetween the 200-600 and the 600GM though, the gap is véry big in price.
 
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What type of lens are you wanting between the 200-600 and the 600gm? just curious,
the 200-600 is awesome considering it’s price And zoom. Imo
We just bought a 100-400GM for my wife but I haven’t used it yet.

The 200-600mm is a very good lens in good light, but it isn't my final lens, like the A1 may well be my final camera for a very long time.
I have been used to prime lenses, and the 200-600mm is a bit dim in comparison. The 600/4 will be great and I will probably end up with it as my final lens, but I would prefer a lightweight 500/4 to pair with the 1.4tc, or a 600mm DO/PF type lens.
 
Lots of speculation (rumors) of release of 800 PF in Feb, new firmware for Z6 / Z 7 II, ... none have come to fruition.

They appear to be pruning their dSLR selections, both bodies and lenses. So what is Nikon planning or are not planning anything? Is Nikon asleep at the switch again, are they planning a mega release, or just working through huge backlog / production backlog for the Z 9 and 400 TC?
Do you think if they release a 600pf that it will be f5.6?
 
Threads on this forum as well as others have speculated about more PF releases from Nikon. This one and cited links cover much of this topic, including that an orthodox design of a 500 f5.6 PF requires a 108mm phase fresnel element...

This raises one of several intriguing questions about the 800 f6.3S PF (likely trickling out into the wild in May). Has Nikon opted for a narrower PF element by positioning it further back in the optical formula? Doing so would reduce production costs are increase yields. Saying this because Nikon admitted to technical challenges with producing sufficient ~90mm PF elements for their 500 f5.6E to meet peak demand.

It's a mistake to underestimate the tenacity and ingenuity of Japanese engineers, however! For no one besides a small group within Nikon know how they manufacture these elements: presumably it involves a resin moulding technique and/or micro-etching of the Fresnel rings, with very precise QC.


Do you think if they release a 600pf that it will be f5.6?
 
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