Z9 it is....

[fcotterill]

The relatively affordable D500 was - and is - gladly welcomed. It must surely have leveraged many enthusiasts into the realm of a high performance ILC. The cost-effectiveness paid off especially for wildlife photographers. It still is arguably about the biggest bang for the buck of any camera yet made, except in low light. Its paired launch with the D5 (early 2016) must rank as one of Nikon's shrewder moves in the past decade. (Two others have been the D3/D300 and prioritizing release of the pair of Z Teleconverters.)

The affordable 200-500 f5.6E launched in the previous year was another big bonus - closely following on the outstanding 300 f4E PF. Paired with the D500, this telephoto zoom has provided a highly effective solution for many photographers on a budget (or a 300 PF $600-800 more). Assuming the 200-600 Z is relatively affordable, the gap of a Z MILC with the AF and Customization features advancing the concept of the D500/D5 pairing ie Unbeatable Cost Effectiveness will still leave many waiting.....

It will have been wise of Nikon to have persisted beyond internal debate to see through the design of a DX Z90 into production: timed to coincide with launch of the $6000 Z9. Presumably a Z90 will also clone across controls, menus and AF from the Z9 (but 4K video). If a ~$2000 Z90 does happen, Nikon will have to ramp up 200-600 production probably. However, quite a few of us might wait and persist happily with the FTZ and F-mount telephotos.

The same prize ceiling will hold back sales of fast Z telephotos (likely $10 000 if not $13 000). Here again, a far more attractive lure will be a 400 f4S PF (as Thom also mentioned in his latest). This would see many of us jump helterskelter into the Z System with a Z90. With the 200-600 and TC Z combo, one will afford these by hook & crook!

 

[O]

Z9 etc, State of mind based on history, with Nikon you don't want to buy the first generation model of anything, Z6 was really crap, owners are seeing the Z6 II with slight improvements, now the Z6III is coming, what then the Z 6 IV.
I hope Nikon comes good for once with its new Z9 and the D850 replacement, but if its news from China then sorry its really hard to rely upon.
Sony and Canon can sort the tracking, Nikon cant or wont, WHY, Someone needs to ask Nikon the question.
If and I mean If Nikon delivers on this Z9 claim it will be a first, they have sprooked so many times and its been underwhelming each time other than the D850 a 4th generation camera and they didn't say to much about it.
Oh as to price yes Nikon will arrogantly stick it hard to you.........why because they know so many people are hanging out for the Z9 and will pay, yes then they will run the usual supply issue to keep prices tight we are all used to that, the camera industry is mirroring the phone industry.....in frequent upgrade models, marketing and pricing tactic's.

Only and opinion Oz Down Under

 

[ChrisM]

With the z9 first deliveries end of year, which means Q1 2022 for most of us, non NPS members, and a potential Z8 announced in Q1 2022 so possibly available during the summer 2022, I wonder how many more wildlife photographers will have switched by then?
Not forgetting either that those bodies are expected at $6500 and $5000 (or more) respectively - which means there isn’t a top spec, somewhat approachable (less than $3500) wildlife mirrorless camera in Nikon’s strategy anytime soon unless they can transform the Z7ii AF via software.
the Sony A9ii and the Canon R5 both fill that spot for those companies - the only glimmer of hope is that rumoured high end APSC Z90 which could be the new D500 but it‘s still a vague rumour and I don’t know that APSC will win that segment in 2021/22 like it did in 2017.

so it looks like we need to be ready to wait at least 2+ years with the hope that our F lenses will in the end perform faster on a new body... or cut the ties now.

I will certainly not have switched by then. I can wait for half a year, that is not a problem at all, given how well Nikon's dslr's and the 500PF work.
I would have to be pretty desperate in my own view, not to be able to wait for the Z9.

Regarding the price you are right of course, it is a flagship top model, and I would greatly prefer a mirrorless D500 variant, so I am not that sure whether I will not wait for that too.
To say that the A9II fills that spot for Sony is not right i.m.o.: it is a 24mp FF body, and how would that replace the 500PF on the D500, without getting into F9 (200-600+1.4TC) territory?
To say that the Canon R5 fills that spot for Canon is not really right either: the best you can do with Canon is a F7.1 lens, or a 14.000,- exotic prime. Or otherwise you are left adapting, which is fine b.t.w.
Just a bit more patience and Nikon will offer a 45mp FF body with 100-400 and 200-600 lenses and the exotic primes for those who want that. Is the grass really that green on the other side?

 

[RichF]

Z9 etc, State of mind based on history, with Nikon you don't want to buy the first generation model of anything, Z6 was really crap, owners are seeing the Z6 II with slight improvements, now the Z6III is coming, what then the Z 6 IV.
I hope Nikon comes good for once with its new Z9 and the D850 replacement, but if its news from China then sorry its really hard to rely upon.
Sony and Canon can sort the tracking, Nikon cant or wont, WHY, Someone needs to ask Nikon the question.
If and I mean If Nikon delivers on this Z9 claim it will be a first, they have sprooked so many times and its been underwhelming each time other than the D850 a 4th generation camera and they didn't say to much about it.
Oh as to price yes Nikon will arrogantly stick it hard to you.........why because they know so many people are hanging out for the Z9 and will pay, yes then they will run the usual supply issue to keep prices tight we are all used to that, the camera industry is mirroring the phone industry.....in frequent upgrade models, marketing and pricing tactic's.

Only and opinion Oz Down Under

If Nikon drops the ball on the Z9, a lot of people may leave them for either Canon or Sony.

 

[Doug Herr]

Just a bit more patience and Nikon will offer a 45mp FF body with 100-400 and 200-600 lenses and the exotic primes for those who want that. Is the grass really that green on the other side?

We're not all facing the same circumstances, but for myself waiting for the next greatest Nikon mirrorless while other makers offer outstanding choices means another year or more of less-than-optimal tools for spring migration, breeding season, fall migration and wintering waterfowl. IDK about anyone else, but the number of birding seasons I have remaining with good mobility is no longer infinite. Waiting is increasingly becoming an unattractive option.

 

[O]

We're not all facing the same circumstances, but for myself waiting for the next greatest Nikon mirrorless while other makers offer outstanding choices means another year or more of less-than-optimal tools for spring migration, breeding season, fall migration and wintering waterfowl. IDK about anyone else, but the number of birding seasons I have remaining with good mobility is no longer infinite. Waiting is increasingly becoming an unattractive option.

Go Canon...........it has the goods and good resale as well. Nikon will be doing the 1st, 2nd, generation thing as usual

Oz Down Under

 

[markymark]

What's the bet the Z8 will be announced as a replacement for the D850?

I know many Nikon shooters are moving over to the Z system, but I hope Nikon also don't forget that a large percentage if not the majority of their shooters still shoot with a good old fashioned DSLR.
In fact it has been the DSLR sales that have pretty much kept them afloat whilst they've been playing catchup in the mirrorless market!

 

[jeffnles1]

If Nikon drops the ball on the Z9, a lot of people may leave them for either Canon or Sony.

I may be all alone in this comment. I'm not all that concerned with what Nikon does with the Z9 any more than I'm concerned about the Sony A1 other than how that technology will be used in more moderately priced bodies. I will never be able to afford over $6K for a camera body although I would love to.

Where I think Nikon cannot afford to drop the ball is coming out with something in mirrorless to rival the D850 or D500. That is what I think the Z7 should have been and from the reviews from folks who's opinion I trust (like @Steve) I think version 1 and 2 have missed the ball. If they don't come out with a pro-sumer (I really dislike that phrase by the way) camera that hits a home run like the D850 did when it came out or the D500 did when it came out I do think a number of Nikon shooters will start looking elsewhere.

I think for a lot of folks the "halo" aspirational products are interesting, fun to read the specs, and maybe even rent but actually buying one is outside the reach of many photographers (unless I'm the only "not wealthy" one here).

Just my thinking here. I hope they do introduce a killer mid-level camera (Z 8??)
Jeff

 

[O]

SONY did us all a great favor, I don't like Sony as a company, but hey they did us a great favour and broke the supposed suspected alliance as they were a new player and launched into mirrorless, at least they got the other two of their rocks from feeding us bread and water all these years. For that I thank Sony.
In life For so many of us Its not making the decision to change that is the issue, its making the decision to make the decision that is the issue.
As my girlfriend says, Go hard or Go Home, we only live once.

Only an opinion as always
Oz down under

 

[RichF]

SONY did us all a great favor, I don't like Sony as a company, but hey they did us a great favour and broke the supposed suspected alliance as they were a new player and launched into mirrorless, at least they got the other two of their rocks from feeding us bread and water all these years. For that I thank Sony.
In life For so many of us Its not making the decision to change that is the issue, its making the decision to make the decision that is the issue.
As my girlfriend says, Go hard or Go Home, we only live once.

Only an opinion as always
Oz down under

So you will going hard- ie switching to Sony. I am very tempted

 

[RichF]

I may be all alone in this comment. I'm not all that concerned with what Nikon does with the Z9 any more than I'm concerned about the Sony A1 other than how that technology will be used in more moderately priced bodies. I will never be able to afford over $6K for a camera body although I would love to.

Where I think Nikon cannot afford to drop the ball is coming out with something in mirrorless to rival the D850 or D500. That is what I think the Z7 should have been and from the reviews from folks who's opinion I trust (like @Steve) I think version 1 and 2 have missed the ball. If they don't come out with a pro-sumer (I really dislike that phrase by the way) camera that hits a home run like the D850 did when it came out or the D500 did when it came out I do think a number of Nikon shooters will start looking elsewhere.

I think for a lot of folks the "halo" aspirational products are interesting, fun to read the specs, and maybe even rent but actually buying one is outside the reach of many photographers (unless I'm the only "not wealthy" one here).

Just my thinking here. I hope they do introduce a killer mid-level camera (Z 8??)
Jeff

IMO I think the Z6/Z7 were good cameras. They were ahead of the Canon R. Then Nikon went to sleep and made minor improvements while Canon (and Sony who was already ahead of the pack) made big improvements. The Z6/7 were rushed, the Z6/7 II were these cameras done right but without major improvements. I hope now that Nikon sees how far behind Canon with the R5/R6 they are and Sony. If they can not get the Z9 correct, they will not have technology to drop into the Z6/7 Mark 3 or 4.

It seems that they gave up on the DSLR market too soon. If they had updated the D850 and D500 that would have given them a good revenue stream while they finished the Z9 and mark III of the z6/7.

Just my $0.02. probably worth nothing after inflation.

 

[Doug Herr]

Go Canon...........it has the goods and good resale as well. Nikon will be doing the 1st, 2nd, generation thing as usual

Oz Down Under

As it turns out I'm quite capable of making my own choices, but thank you for the suggestion.

 

[jeffnles1]

IMO I think the Z6/Z7 were good cameras. They were ahead of the Canon R. Then Nikon went to sleep and made minor improvements while Canon (and Sony who was already ahead of the pack) made big improvements. The Z6/7 were rushed, the Z6/7 II were these cameras done right but without major improvements. I hope now that Nikon sees how far behind Canon with the R5/R6 they are and Sony. If they can not get the Z9 correct, they will not have technology to drop into the Z6/7 Mark 3 or 4.

It seems that they gave up on the DSLR market too soon. If they had updated the D850 and D500 that would have given them a good revenue stream while they finished the Z9 and mark III of the z6/7.

Just my $0.02. probably worth nothing after inflation.

I don’t disagree with anything you said.
The good news is, except video, the D500 is all the camera I need right now. Sure live view through the viewfinder and a live histogram in the viewfinder would be really nice to have, I know this camera like the back of my hand. I’ve learned it’s quirky stuff and it’s limitations.
I will move to mirrorless some day when the time is right for me.
Jeff

 

[Kevin]

Almost every person I talk to who is a Nikon user is waiting for a D500/D850 upgrade, either because they own one of the two or they want to buy one of the two but don’t want to spend money and have an updated version come out a few months down the line. While I have only just started photography as a hobby, I can see how a lighter mirrorless body is so appealing. It’s a pain to carry a heavy DSLR on 10+ mile hikes for example, especially once you experience how light the mirrorless setups are.

Mirrorless options that are as good (if not better) than the D500/D850 would send Nikon’s sales through the roof in my opinion. That’s one way to generate desperately needed revenue...

 

[RichF]

I don’t disagree with anything you said.
The good news is, except video, the D500 is all the camera I need right now. Sure live view through the viewfinder and a live histogram in the viewfinder would be really nice to have, I know this camera like the back of my hand. I’ve learned it’s quirky stuff and it’s limitations.
I will move to mirrorless some day when the time is right for me.
Jeff

I understand. I have a D850 and their are few things about the ML that attract. Better lenses would be nice not essential. No more AF fine tuning would be a real benefit. i have tried to adjust the D850s and my 600F4 and find that the process is a pain. AF points all over the image would be helpful as would higher frame rate. And of course eye focus for animals. Bottom line, I like the features of state of the art ML cameras and if they could be delivered in my D850 I would happy. I think I hear someone says, Dorothy, Dorothy wake up, you are back in Kansas now.

 

[RichF]

Almost every person I talk to who is a Nikon user is waiting for a D500/D850 upgrade, either because they own one of the two or they want to buy one of the two but don’t want to spend money and have an updated version come out a few months down the line. While I have only just started photography as a hobby, I can see how a lighter mirrorless body is so appealing. It’s a pain to carry a heavy DSLR on 10+ mile hikes for example, especially once you experience how light the mirrorless setups are.

Mirrorless options that are as good (if not better) than the D500/D850 would send Nikon’s sales through the roof in my opinion. That’s one way to generate desperately needed revenue...

consider the weight of the entire kit. Saving a 1/2 pound on a body with you have 5 lbs of lenses is not much of a savings

 

[Kevin]

consider the weight of the entire kit. Saving a 1/2 pound on a body with you have 5 lbs of lenses is not much of a savings

People generally don’t have the whole kit on hikes, full frame with 1 lens, maybe 2. Plus every ounce you don’t have to lug around counts once you’re exhausted..

 

[RichF]

People generally don’t have the whole kit on hikes, full frame with 1 lens, maybe 2. Plus every ounce you don’t have to lug around counts once you’re exhausted..

My walk around camera / lens is Z7 with z 24-200. Wish it were longer but ...

 

[Kjellis]

I bought the Z6 ii at launch hoping they would bring some decent firmware updates like bird and wildlife eye focus, but nothing has happened yet... I have loved shooting with Nikon in the past, but now I‘m growing tired of waiting for Nikon to bring out something to close the gap. I love my 500mm f4 E, but I dislike the FTZ adaptor, both the design and the performance. It looks cheap and and clumsy connected to the lens in my opinion.
I really like my 14-30mm f4 and 24-70mm f4, but if I could afford it I would change system to either Canon or Sony. For now I will sit on the fence, but if the Z9 can’t perform great with my 500mm f4 E I might as well change system rather than buying the new Z-mount telephotolenses. I feel that Nikon has been asleep and didn’t take mirrorless seriously before it was too late.
I may be off, but this is my thoughts... I will give Nikon a year to bring out some updates to my Z6 ii and see what the Z9 will be before looking to make the shift to an another brand. My hope is that the Z9 comes with a new and better designed FTZ adaptor and performs stunning with my 500mm

 

[RichF]

I bought the Z6 ii at launch hoping they would bring some decent firmware updates like bird and wildlife eye focus, but nothing has happened yet... I have loved shooting with Nikon in the past, but now I‘m growing tired of waiting for Nikon to bring out something to close the gap. I love my 500mm f4 E, but I dislike the FTZ adaptor, both the design and the performance. It looks cheap and and clumsy connected to the lens in my opinion.
I really like my 14-30mm f4 and 24-70mm f4, but if I could afford it I would change system to either Canon or Sony. For now I will sit on the fence, but if the Z9 can’t perform great with my 500mm f4 E I might as well change system rather than buying the new Z-mount telephotolenses. I feel that Nikon has been asleep and didn’t take mirrorless seriously before it was too late.
I may be off, but this is my thoughts... I will give Nikon a year to bring out some updates to my Z6 ii and see what the Z9 will be before looking to make the shift to an another brand. My hope is that the Z9 comes with a new and better designed FTZ adaptor and performs stunning with my 500mm

About 3 - 4 years ago I got very fed up with Canon. Nikon AF and Sensors were superior, the D850 was a dream, so I jumped. The Nikon Z6/Z7 were much better than canon's R (Canon does a lot of trial technlogy, the ergonomics of the R was one, failed imo, experiment. Now fast forward today, Canon as the R5/R6 vs nikon Z6/Z7 II. The Z6/Z7 II are redos of the original cameras, not real upgrades. The R5/R6 can some valuable features.

So i am with you, i'll wait and see .. but not too long. Nikon has a bad habit of doing nothing and then doing a lot at once. Perhaps they have only 1 good design team?

 

[Kjellis]

About 3 - 4 years ago I got very fed up with Canon. Nikon AF and Sensors were superior, the D850 was a dream, so I jumped. The Nikon Z6/Z7 were much better than canon's R (Canon does a lot of trial technlogy, the ergonomics of the R was one, failed imo, experiment. Now fast forward today, Canon as the R5/R6 vs nikon Z6/Z7 II. The Z6/Z7 II are redos of the original cameras, not real upgrades. The R5/R6 can some valuable features.

So i am with you, i'll wait and see .. but not too long. Nikon has a bad habit of doing nothing and then doing a lot at once. Perhaps they have only 1 good design team?

I agree. I think Nikon will catch up, they have to right? But I don’t want to wait a long time for it to happen. And if I also have to buy a new Z telephoto lens to get the best of the Z camera, well...
I was shooting at a black grouse lek with a fellow photographer last week. He had just bought the Canon R6 to pair with his 200-400 with built in tc and I got to tryit for a few shots, something I regret doing… LOL

 

[ChrisM]

I agree. I think Nikon will catch up, they have to right? But I don’t want to wait a long time for it to happen. And if I must also buy a new telephoto lens to get the best of the Z camera , well...
I was shooting at a black grouse lek with a fellow photographer who had just bought the Canon R6 to pair with his 200-400 with bouilt in tc and I got to try it for a few shots, something I regret doing... LOL

Good thing when the equipment that is envied is mentioned, because putting much of the sentiments together, it seems that Nikon is about to introduce a new camera and two exotic primes in about 5 months time that are seen as "halo" products: inaffordable and "nice for the spec sheets".

In Europe:
Canon (20mp*) R6: €2.739,-
Canon 200-400mm f4.0 IS USM EX 1.4x: €12.999,-
total: €15.738,-

I am not sure yet, but I assume that you will be able to buy the Nikon "halo" (45mp*) Z9, Z100-400mmS and Z200-600mm for that money, and still have a nice starting capital for saving up for the "halo" Z400mm f2.8S

*saves you the money for a Z1.4TC

 

[robertbeal]

I think that I will stay with my D6 and my D500 like one of the earlier people said it will be a year to 18 months before you might be able to find one in stock. The concern I have is with all the f mount fast glass I have I don't want to replace it and I don't want to loose fast focus

 

[Kjellis]

Good thing when the equipment that is envied is mentioned, because putting much of the sentiments together, it seems that Nikon is about to introduce a new camera and two exotic primes in about 5 months time that are seen as "halo" products: inaffordable and "nice for the spec sheets".

In Europe:
Canon (20mp*) R6: €2.739,-
Canon 200-400mm f4.0 IS USM EX 1.4x: €12.999,-
total: €15.738,-

I am not sure yet, but I assume that you will be able to buy the Nikon "halo" (45mp*) Z9, Z100-400mmS and Z200-600mm for that money, and still have a nice starting capital for saving up for the "halo" Z400mm f2.8S

*saves you the money for a Z1.4TC

Well, I think you missed my point. Or I am missing something. That could well be the case as english is not my native language...
When I bought my 500mm f4 E it was a big stretch for me and I love this lens. I don’t want to replace it, but I do want to use mirrorless cameras and I want better AF and faster frps. If Nikon could bring out a camera that with F glass matches the performance of lets say my friends R6 or the even the R5 with the EF glass I would be happy. If I will have to sell my 500mm f4 and buy the new Z mount prime to get better AF performance with Z cameras I could just look at switching to another brand doing such a big investment.... If I sold all my Nikon gear and replaced it with a used Canon 500mm f4 and a R6 with some wide angle lenses it would not be such a big investment and the AF performance (and frps) would be greater than my Z6 ii with the 500mm f4 (and yes, having a F4 lens is a big deal for my photography)

 

[ChrisM]

Well, I think you missed my point. Or I am missing something. That could well be the case as english is not my native language...
When I bought my 500mm f4 E it was a big stretch for me and I love this lens. I don’t want to replace it, but I do want to use mirrorless cameras and I want better AF and faster frps. If Nikon could bring out a camera that with F glass matches the performance of lets say my friends R6 or the even the R5 with the EF glass I would be happy. If I will have to sell my 500mm f4 and buy the new Z mount prime to get better AF performance with Z cameras I could just look at switching to another brand doing such a big investment.... If I sold all my Nikon gear and replaced it with a used Canon 500mm f4 and a R6 with some wide angle lenses it would not be such a big investment and the AF performance (and frps) would be greater than my Z6 ii with the 500mm f4 (and yes, having a F4 lens is a big deal for my photography)

I still feel that the coming Z9 with your 500E lens is a vastly better proposition than the Canon R6 with the 500II, even if it takes half a year of patience. The R6 is ony 20mp, does not have a stacked sensor, does not have an integrated grip, and does not take your 500E.

Believe me, I have jumped around my own fair bit, e.g. not suffering 6 months of waiting for the 500PF when it was impossible to get. I have learned my lesson I guess, just stick with what you like and wait a bit longer, otherwise chances are that you will be changing back like I did a few times. I could easily buy a Nikon Z9 for all the money thát cost me I can tell you.