Canon R1 : Development Announcement

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Thanks for the diatribe. We can are to disagree.
Stimulating debate!
If Nikon has this week in the bag a decade ago, they wouldn't have launched the Z cameras prior to the Z9. And they wouldn't have tried putting in 2 Expeed 6 processors trying to and failing to improve the AF.

Obviously they already had a stoker in the fire, but The Innovators Dilemma is a real and known thing.
The Innovators dilemma certainly applied to Canon AF overtaking Nikon AF in the early 1990s. And it probably applies to those looking at Nikon's recent telephotos. Sigma's new 500 is probably a reaction to the 400 f4.5S and PF primes (?)


I've been a Nikon guy for over 20 years and I'm well versed with Nikon's history of innovation.
This includes application of Deep-Learning in the matrix-metering of the FA - R&D kicked off in 1977 preceding its 1983 launch. (Starting with Nikon in 1984, I struggled then to afford a FM2, as the costly FA was a Pro SLR in the league of the F3 :oops: )

Point here is Nikon has many decades of experience in such innovations, although they have waxed and waned eg D1 and D3 peaks bracketing a slowdown, when Canon got ahead....

If you are then you'd know Nikon has a mirrorless out before Sony and Canon but thought it was a gimmick and never pursued it.
Nikon 1 was ahead of its time - high fps, novel AF system, but lacking in EVF as were all MILCs prior to CaNIkon R and Z Systems. Many N1 owners then and still today consider these cameras extremely capable. The EVFs of the Z6 and Z7 are excellent apart from the frame blackout, which is a processing artefact.

I was reminded of a 2014 interview with the late Hidehiko Tanaka San, former head of Nikon UK explaining why Nikon opted for the CX sensor: "....high-speed processing that can be performed by the Nikon 1 is simply not possible currently with the DX format size sensors. For example, the Nikon 1 cameras allow you to shoot a very rapid sequence of pictures and then choose the best frame(s) out of 10, 20 or even 30 images. The small sensor not only permits high-speed operation, but it also generates far less heat, which helps to improve image quality, so there are a number of factors that were considered when the Nikon 1 was being developed...." Nikon Owners Magazine.

So Nikon was not in on it a decade ago like you think.
They were definitely planning the Z System some years prior to 2018.
Several interviews support this, as stated by Nikon engineers

The D850 isn't making any more money as it's production store over a year ago.
You mean selling at a loss - data for this?
Nikon has stated the D850 is one of their best selling cameras, which is presumably why they keep it in stock.

The D6 was a panic move
Using emotive terms undermines an argument. They prompt the readership to doubt statements.... as a Nikon fan(atic) I admit struggling to parse my prose in this respect!

Anyway, where's the Evidence for this? - In interviews since August 2018, Nikon has been extremely cautious not to admit it was discontinuing DSLRs. It would have been counterproductive - for the Nikon Brand especially - to have stopped R&D of the planned D6 and D780. However, there are suspicions Niko canned planned updates of the D500 and D850 (according to Thom Hogan). These presumably would have inherited the D6 AF Engine, which would have worked rather well to keep many DSLRs users well clear of the Z System :)

The D6 must have been planned in parallel with the Z System. Besides the DSLRs and MILCs, including the Z9, Nikon was also developing new Z telephotos relatively soon and in parallel with their recently launched F-mounts? BUT what to do with the considerable prior investment in their E FL F-Nikkors? Canon took the shortcut - slightly redesign for R Mounts, instead - most fortunately - Nikon have redesigned their telephotos on a blank slate, admittedly leveraging the Internal-TC knowledge into the new 400 f2.8S and 600 f4S

Together with the improved Networking, the D6 AF System must have taken considerable investment, including working with sports Pros such as a AFP

as mentioned, sufficient experience with the D6 AF algorithms reveals obvious overlaps with the Z9's algorithms . I've no experience, but the same could well apply to shared Networking tech across both flagship cameras.

by Nikon at the time (the Z9 was still a year away from being ready)
Was the Z9 not ready or was it a case of waiting on the Z Telephotos (among others) to leverage the ILC:Lens ratio in sales? Only Nikon knows.

The D6 was the appropriate flagship released 4 years after the D5. This has been Nikon's tradition since the D1 to keep its dependent DSLR professionals etc

and was/is nothing more than a D5s that Nikon called a D6.
The "D5s putdown" keeps getting exhumed. It's hot air - like a DSLR luddite dismissing the Z9 as a D6s because it shares Networking, GPS and aspects of key AF features.

The reality is those of us who use the D6 alongside the Z9 know what this DSLR is capable of. Its completely new AF System, integral GPS, full touch menus etc.... the D6 is a significant improvement on the excellent D5 (which I also used intensively).

And Nikon want winding down F mount lenses a decade ago. It's that was the case they would not have spent the time and money in the R&D of the 300
The 300 PF was released in January 2015, and you will be intimately familiar with this interview that the engineers overcame major challenges in the years preceding its release to manufacturing. Speculation, but their heavy lifting would have made the follow up 500 PF that much easier and indeed the 800 S PF and 600 PF more recently.

In several of these interviews, Nikon engineers admit to testing different prototypes (eg the 400 f4.5S) that fail to pass muster...all this takes much time and money.


and 500PF lenses in 2018 and made the the D5 and D500 in 2016
Structuring a technology company of Nikon's size has faced several challenges. Since public announcement in 2015, this included recovering costs invested in DSLR products, including lenses. This must have been even more difficult than clearing inventories of entry cameras and kit lenses. Besides many millions invested in factories, and staff, Nikon spent millions on R&D and had planned DSLR products for some years prior to 2015.

Nikon invests massively in its R&D and its clients are the ultimate benefactors. Obviously we pay, and the company prioritizes profitability. As in how a big portion of advertising funds are wasted - similarly in R&D. Using 50% as a heuristic example; one only learns which 50% of R&D is wasted after exploring the options and identifying the cul de sacs; all the time the market presents a shifting target. So tech companies aim for decent profit margins to recover R&D besides covering the production distribution, marketing costs

While some designs are discarded, others get to market, a strategy Nikon follows through profitably, as attested in their penultimate F System products since announcing their restructuring in 2015. This included the D5 Triumvirate, and it's unlikely at its RRP, the D6 has made a loss, although only Nikon knows this.

and the D850 in 2018.
D850 was released in 2017 with the 105 f1.4E as Nikon's 100th Anniversary flagship products.
Nothing Nikon has dune Sierra anything you say.
Unintelligible
So I'm good with agreeing to disagree.
Convincing rebuttals cite reliable evidence
 
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The Innovators Dilema, one of the must read books for people interessted in, or working, with technology or fields regularly affected by innovation.

I think both of you are actually quite close, and the truth is only known to Nikon or Canon anyways. The whole switch to mirrorless is actually a very nice show case for the Innovators Dilema and how companies tackle it and how markets are changed by disruption. As Nikon person, and someone who doesn't really follow camera development to begin with, I cannot say anything about Canon. For Nikon so, I was worried for a while. They did a good job so, because even the initial Z bodies are very good cameras. And yes, if someone talks about Nikon and mirrorless without mentioning Nikon 1 they miss something crucial.
One take on this episode

One of the best marketing moves ever was Canon puzzingputting their cameras in the hands of people shooting major sport events and painting their lenses white. This, IMHO, more than anything else cemented Canon's image as "pro" brand.
Interesting hypothesis - but Canon leveraging its AF with internal motors, on their then new EF mount, took them forward in the early 1990s for Pro sports

And with the upcoming Olympics, well, the R1 announcement makes sense.
CaNikon featuring flagship ILCs and lenses before an Olympics has been a tradition for decades

Persobally, I am quite happy that, Nikon's early Z bodies, especially the Z6, got so much bad press. Used Z6s with a shutter count below 10k in near mint condition sell for less than used Z5s, D810s or D780s. For no real reason, eith all the firmware updates they received.
The Z6 and Z7 are excellent cameras, but wanting for Action genres

As I said eleswhere, all modern cameras and lenses are at least good enough, the actual model brand coming down to taste and personal preferences.

One thing regarding AF so: There is subject recognition and AF speed. The latter is focusing on a certain point, the former identifying said point. The early Z bodies had some issues regarding subject identification (mainly a question of computing power) and never the latter.
This is where Nikon must already recognize the priority to iterate their Zf design ie EXPEED7 in a mid tier MILC

People just constantly confuse those two. Some cross-type AF sensors would have been nice so, bot that it really matters IRL so that much.
Is the lack of cross-type sensors still a deficiency in all Z MILCs? At least compared against the D6 AF System... This includes the Z9, hence the need to set memory recall to a closer position, and/or tilt the camera to improve oorientation of the AF sensors

That being said, no doubt the R1 will be a great camera that will find its buyers. Because I cannot remember Canon ever making a really bad one, not Nikon. No idea about Sony, Fujifilm and so on, but I assume they didn't have serious dud neither.
 
No idea which Z-series bodies don'z have cross-type sensors, the Z6 doesn't. I was quite young in the 90s, and back then it was the F4 form Nikon against the EOS 1. And the F4 had excelent AF. What I heard so, was that Canon did provide the bodies and lenses for close to nothing for agencies to shoot major sport events, with white lenses. If true, that's genious: agancies, like everyone else earning money with equipment, care about cost above all else and nothing beats zero costs. And ethusiasts sae those whize lenses at all those major sports events and wanted one themselves, not caring much about cost.

I had the privelege to basically learn photography using my dad's second F4 body (I loved the looks I got as a young teen sporting one of those for some reason) and try the EOS 1s from some of his friends. To this day, I prefer Nikon ergonomics and feel. Overall so, already back then flagship bodies were comparable in most regards.

Naively, I assume bothing really changed since then fundamentely.

Personally, subject recocnition falls in the same category as 3D tracking from back the day, I don't use neither. Just keep the AF point where you want it using the smallest AF area possible. Doing mostly landscape and occassionally wildlife, subject recognition doesn't really matter. And my longest lense is manual focus anyway, so the biggest revelation going to mirrorless was focus peaking! And man, do I love that!
 
Well, I'm sure this R1 is going to be an absolutely fantastic camera, but if true 30MP is not going to be enough for me, so that will rule out Canon. I've grown spoiled with cropping using my 61MP Sony, and if I make the move over to Nikon I can have my speed and megapixels, as well. Not sure what Canon is thinking here if these are accurate, honestly, but maybe I'm just in the minority.

The R5ii, supposedly to be announced this month will be their wildlife and landscape camera, supposed to stay around 45 megapixels. The Canon flagship cameras have always been low negapixels so 30 is not surprising to me. The target group for that camera doesn't need more.
 
All of these camera companies were hamstrung by two issues from 2010 forward. These issues slowed development of mirrorless and meant the DSLR remained viable but advances in mirrorless were limited.

The newest cameras rely on much faster processors to support AF and subject detection. Without fast processors, high speed adjustments to AF and subject recognition cannot recognize and direct adjustments quickly enough. Related to fast processors is the fast readout from the sensor. The earlier cameras did not have a fast enough readout for action and subject recognition even if there was a fast enough processor. The early version of this was with Live View and the use of a rear LCD. The other approach is to process or readout a reduced quantity of data. The early version of this was not changing focus or exposure with high burst rates. The next iteration was frame skipping - both for focus and the EVF. The evolution was a dual readout where a smaller amount of sensor data is used for the EVF, metering and focus.

The other big issue is write speed. That's a function of both processor speed and card speed. While we see card speed as an issue, without a fast processor that operates without excess heat, it doesn't matter. Both the evolution of camera processors and fast cards needed time to evolve. The early mirrorless cameras were using SD cards - or slower compact flash and CFast cards. Only XQD and now CFExpress can support fast frame rates without a huge buffer. Some cameras did use a huge internal buffer, but the problem remains with heat and extended periods to clear the buffer. So the alternative strategy was to write a small JPEG or APS-C image - much like was done with high speed bursts or video.

Fast focus, fast processing, and fast write speeds were most important to professionals in specific genres. Without those issues being adequately addressed, many pros could not embrace mirrorless even if a camera was available. Canon and Nikon had the legacy issue and need to release flagship bodies at a level where there was no step backwards in terms of performance. The worst thing they could do was release a flagship camera that performed poorly. Sony was able to take a different route since there was no existing flagship base of users. Still - it had to use some of the compromises described above to address technical issues. All were valid strategies and none were without issues or tradeoffs.
 
The R5ii, supposedly to be announced this month will be their wildlife and landscape camera, supposed to stay around 45 megapixels. The Canon flagship cameras have always been low negapixels so 30 is not surprising to me. The target group for that camera doesn't need more.


But the thing is, they're not competing with their old 1D series cameras, they're competing with the Nikon Z9 and the Sony A1.
 
Even with DSLR, the $6500 flagship 1Dxiii only had 20 megapixels. Not because they can't, I think. It's just the part of the pro market that needs the cleanest images but no need for big files, big prints or cropping, not what they do.
 
The reason for the pro flagship bodies being FF 20-24mp is for the sport shooters. They need smaller file sizes and lower MP is better noise performance for indoor shooting.

That's why 20-24mp FF are sports bodies and not wildlife or landscape bodies. As a sports shooter, you are setting up where you know you're filling the frame enough so you're not cropping. This is complete the opposite for wildlife shooters where you never where you're subject to l will be and in most cases you cropping if for nothing else, composition.

That's really why the R3 is really a sports body. That's why the A9III is generally a sports body. They can be used for wildlife but you have to get significantly closer to your subject with those bodies
 
note it think it was pretty clear that nikon decided to solve this problem a different way, ie raw he* and he. they seemed to determine that the FILE SIZE was more relevant than the number of MPs
Yeah but that is still a Raw file and generally not ready for upload and post. Sports shooters are still going to shoot jpeg for file size and in camera corrections applied by a picture control. In the end, the either HE file format is still just a half measure unless you are not on an instant need to immediately post straight from camera and an editor will be editing.

An HE* file at 33-35MB is still quite large for instant uploads over 11MB or even a 20MB file in jpeg

My original point was in response to why the older Pro Flagships were FF 20-24MP
 
i think Eric has a valid point, but i think nikon is saying they think they can get a lot of the benefits a different way, and also network speeds are faster, esp. those at large sporting events so it's not as critical to have the most tiny file
 
which reminds me

The combination of the new image processing system and deep learning technology will help to improve image quality. Canon implements the image noise reduction function, which has been previously developed and improved as part of the software for PCs, as a camera function to further improve image quality and contribute to user creativity.

assuming they mean "with raw files also", this seems to be a somewhat unique canon thing. while everyone has endeavored to produce the best jpgs sooc as possible, i've commented before how canon seems a bit unique in being willing to apply NR to their raw pipeline

note the triangle downs:

vs their competitors:

and

the mention in the announcement make me wonder if they plan to double down on this and make it a "feature"
 

I have a slightly different take on some of the points here.
  1. If the R1 turns out to be 30 MP, does that mean it's limited to a Sports flagship? I've been reading about Nikon wildlife shooters using their D5's and D6's for years at 20.8 MP. 45 may be the current standard, but is 30 all that different?
  2. If the R5 II turns out to be 45 MP is it competing with the Z9 and the A1? To me, if it does come with a stacked sensor, it's competing with the Z8.
  3. Why wasn't the R3 the Canon mirrorless flagship? I remember hearing Canon make a distinction about the weather sealing for all environments at the time (as in attached).
 

I have a slightly different take on some of the points here.
  1. If the R1 turns out to be 30 MP, does that mean it's limited to a Sports flagship? I've been reading about Nikon wildlife shooters using their D5's and D6's for years at 20.8 MP. 45 may be the current standard, but is 30 all that different?
yah, i think it would mean they think their do-it-all body is the r5ii not the r1 and that the r1 is a specialized body, which appears opposite of how sony and nikon(?) are thinking (witness the a1 and a9), although i suppose we don't really know if nikon will build a specialized body at all (although there are those rumors about a "high speed" nikon)

  1. If the R5 II turns out to be 45 MP is it competing with the Z9 and the A1? To me, if it does come with a stacked sensor, it's competing with the Z8.
yes, this is the way i think about it too, but others do think they compare. it's also possible the r5ii will have a stacked sensor, which might change the equation

  1. Why wasn't the R3 the Canon mirrorless flagship? I remember hearing Canon make a distinction about the weather sealing for all environments at the time (as in attached).
it's hard to say, but i have a suspicion that they felt like the market would look at them as "less" if their flagship was 24MP and everyone else's was 45MP+

i guess in the end, if they built an r5ii with a 45 or 50mp stacked sensor and an r1 with a 30mp stacked sensor, that might more or less be the same as the a1 vs the a9iii if sony had called the a9iii their flagship. tomato, tomato

that said, i still don't think it's going to be 30mp
 
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